Modelling an integrated impact of fire, explosion and combustion products during transitional events caused by an accidental release of LNG

In a complex processing facility, there is likelihood of occurrence of cascading scenarios, i.e. hydrocarbon release, fire, explosion and dispersion of combustion products. The consequence of such scenarios, when combined, can be more severe than their individual impact. Hence, actual impact can be only representedby integration of above mentioned events. A novel methodology is proposed to model an evolving accident scenario during an incidental release of LNG in a complex processing facility. The methodology is applied to a case study considering transitional scenarios namely spill, pool formation and evaporation of LNG, dispersion of natural gas, and the consequent fire, explosion and dispersion of combustion products using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). Probit functions are employed to analyze individual impacts and a ranking method is used to combine various impacts to identify risk during the transitional events.The results confirmed that in a large and complex facility, an LNG fire can transit to a vapor cloud explosion ifthe necessary conditions are met, i.e.the flammable range, ignition source with enough energy and congestion/confinement level. Therefore, the integrated consequences are more severe than those associated with the individual ones, and need to be properly assessed. This study would provide an insight for an effective analysis of potential consequences of an LNG spill in any LNG processing facility and it can be useful for the safety measured design of process facilities

Evaluation of CFD simulations of transient pool fire burning rates

Fire is the most commonly occurring major accident hazard in the chemical and process industries, with industry accident statistics highlighting the liquid pool fire as the most frequent fire event. Modelling of such phenomena feeds heavily into industry risk assessment and consequence analyses. Traditional simple empirical equations cannot account for the full range of factors influencing pool fire behaviour or increasingly complex plant design. The use of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modelling enables a greater understanding of pool fire behaviour to be gained numerically and provides the capability to deal with complex scenarios. This paper presents an evaluation of the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) for predictive modelling of liquid pool fire burning rates. Specifically, the work examines the ability of the model to predict temporal variations in the burning rate of open atmosphere pool fires. Fires ranging from 0.4 to 4 m in diameter, involving ethanol and a range of liquid hydrocarbons as fuels, are considered and comparisons of predicted fuel mass loss rates are compared to experimental measurements. The results show that the liquid pyrolysis sub-model in FDS gives consistent model performance for fully predictive modelling of liquid pool fire burning rates, particularly during quasi-steady burning. However, the model falls short of predicting the subtleties associated with each phase of the transient burning process, failing to reliably predict fuel mass loss rates during fire growth and extinction. The results suggest a range of model modifications which could lead to improved prediction of the transient fire growth and extinction phases of burning for liquid pool fires, specifically, investigation of: ignition modelling techniques for high boiling temperature liquid fuels; a combustion regime combining both infinite and finite-rate chemistry; a solution method which accounts for two- or three-dimensional heat conduction effects in the liquid-phase; alternative surrogate fuel compositions for multi-component hydrocarbon fuels; and modification of the solution procedure used at the liquid-gas interface during fire extinction

A multivariable model for estimation of vapor cloud explosion occurrences based on a fuzzy logic approach for flammable materials

© 2014 Elsevier Ltd. In this paper, a new method based on Fuzzy theory is presented to estimate the occurrence possibility of vapor cloud explosion (VCE) of flammable materials. This new method helps the analyst to overcome some uncertainties associated with estimating VCE possibility with the Event Tree (ET) technique. In this multi-variable model, the physical properties of the released material and the characteristics of the surrounding environment are used as the parameters specifying the occurrence possibility of intermediate events leading to a VCE. Factors such as area classification, degree of congestion of a plant and release rate are notably affecting the output results. Moreover, the proposed method benefits from experts' opinions in the estimation of the VCE possibility. A refrigeration cycle is used as the case study and the probability of VCE occurrence is determined for different scenarios. In this study, sensitivity analysis is performed on the model parameters to assess their effect on the final values of the VCE possibility. Furthermore, the results are compared with the results obtained using other existing models.publisher: Elsevier articletitle: A multivariable model for estimation of vapor cloud explosion occurrence possibility based on a Fuzzy logic approach for flammable materials journaltitle: Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries articlelink: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jlp.2014.11.003 content_type: article copyright: Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.status: publishe

Optimization procedure to select an inherently safer design scheme

© 2013 The Institution of Chemical Engineers. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. There are different well-established strategies for making a process plant inherently safer. The benefits of applying these strategies on reducing the overall risk inside a plant are obvious. However, some of these changes are rejected many times because they appear to be too costly. But if the effects of applying inherently safer design strategies are investigated not only on the processing costs of a plant but also on the potential accident costs, the decision would in fact be different. In this paper an optimization procedure is proposed which integrates both processing and accident costs for different design schemes. In this procedure, some of the design variables are chosen with regard to inherently safer design strategies. The objective function is the sum of accident costs and plant lifecycle processing costs. For assessing accident costs, consequence modeling techniques and probit functions are applied. Consequence modeling formulas and an objective function are codified in an optimizer package (MATLAB) and to accomplish the optimization process a process simulator (called HYSYS) is coupled with this package. The application of the proposed procedure is demonstrated by selecting an optimum process scheme for a Refrigeration plant as a case study.publisher: Elsevier articletitle: Optimization procedure to select an inherently safer design scheme journaltitle: Process Safety and Environmental Protection articlelink: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.psep.2014.05.002 content_type: article copyright: Copyright © 2014 The Institution of Chemical Engineers. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.status: publishe

The significance of domino effect in chemical accidents

A historical survey was performed on 330 accidents involving domino effect, occurred in process/storage plants and in the transportation of hazardous materials; only accidents occurred after 1st-January-1961 have been considered. The main features – geographical location, type of accident, materials involved, origin and causes, consequences, domino sequences – were analyzed, with special consideration to the situation in the developing countries and compared to those from other previous surveys. Among the involved substances, LPG was the most frequent one, followed by liquid hydrocarbons. Process plants (38.5% of cases) and storage areas (33%) were the most common settings; 10.6% of past domino accidents occurred in transfer operations. The ratio between “two-step” and “three-step” domino accidents was found to be 6. A specific analysis of the accidents (84) occurred in the 21st century was performed, comparing them with the total set of accidents. Finally, a set of specific recommendations inferred from the results is provided.Peer Reviewe