The Brazilian Soil Spectral Service (BraSpecS): A User-Friendly System for Global Soil Spectra Communication

Although many Soil Spectral Libraries (SSLs) have been created globally, these libraries still have not been operationalized for end-users. To address this limitation, this study created an online Brazilian Soil Spectral Service (BraSpecS). The system was based on the Brazilian Soil Spectral Library (BSSL) with samples collected in the Visible–Near–Short-wave infrared (vis–NIR–SWIR) and Midinfrared (MIR) ranges. The interactive platform allows users to find spectra, act as custodians of the data, and estimate several soil properties and classification. The system was tested by 500 Brazilian and 65 international users. Users accessed the platform (besbbr.com.br), uploaded their spectra, and received soil organic carbon (SOC) and clay content prediction results via email. The BraSpecS prediction provided good results for Brazilian data, but performed variably for other countries. Prediction for countries outside of Brazil using local spectra (External Country Soil Spectral Libraries, ExCSSL) mostly showed greater performance than BraSpecS. Clay R2 ranged from 0.5 (BraSpecS) to 0.8 (ExCSSL) in vis–NIR–SWIR, but BraSpecS MIR models were more accurate in most situations. The development of external models based on the fusion of local samples with BSSL formed the Global Soil Spectral Library (GSSL). The GSSL models improved soil properties prediction for different countries. Nevertheless, the proposed system needs to be continually updated with new spectra so they can be applied broadly. Accordingly, the online system is dynamic, users can contribute their data and the models will adapt to local information. Our community-driven web platform allows users to predict soil attributes without learning soil spectral modeling, which will invite end-users to utilize this powerful technique

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Summary Background Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. Methods We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung’s disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. Findings We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung’s disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middleincome countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in lowincome countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. Interpretation Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between lowincome, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

Development of a Spatial Model for Soil Quality Assessment under Arid and Semi-Arid Conditions

Food security has become a global concern for humanity with rapid population growth, requiring a sustainable assessment of natural resources. Soil is one of the most important sources that can help to bridge the food demand gap to achieve food security if well assessed and managed. The aim of this study was to determine the soil quality index (SQI) for El Fayoum depression in the Western Egyptian Desert using spatial modeling for soil physical, chemical, and biological properties based on the MEDALUS methodology. For this purpose, a spatial model was developed to evaluate the soil quality of the El Fayoum depression in the Western Egyptian Desert. The integration between Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and Sentinel-2 satellite image was used to produce landforms and digital soil mapping for the study area. Results showed that the study area located under six classes of soil quality, e.g., very high-quality class represents an area of 387.12 km(2) (22.7%), high-quality class occupies 441.72 km(2) (25.87%), the moderate-quality class represents 208.57 km(2) (12.21%), slightly moderate-quality class represents 231.10 km(2) (13.5%), as well as, a low-quality class covering an area of 233 km(2) (13.60%), and very low-quality class occupies about 206 km(2) (12%). The Agricultural Land Evaluation System for arid and semi-arid regions (ALESarid) was used to estimate land capability. Land capability classes were non-agriculture class (C6), poor (C4), fair (C3), and good (C2) with an area 231.87 km(2) (13.50%), 291.94 km(2) (17%), 767.39 km(2) (44.94%), and 416.07 km(2) (24.4%), respectively. Land capability along with the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) used for validation of the proposed model of soil quality. The spatially-explicit soil quality index (SQI) shows a strong significant positive correlation with the land capability and a positive correlation with NDVI at R-2 0.86 (p < 0.001) and 0.18 (p < 0.05), respectively. In arid regions, the strategy outlined here can easily be re-applied in similar environments, allowing decision-makers and regional governments to use the quantitative results achieved to ensure sustainable development

Integration of Geostatistical and Sentinal-2AMultispectral Satellite Image Analysis for Predicting Soil Fertility Condition in Drylands

For modelling and predicting soil indicators to be fully operational and facilitate decision-making at any spatial level, there is a requirement for precise spatially referenced soil information to be available as input data. This paper focuses on showing the capacity of Sentinal-2A(S2A) multispectral imaging to predict soil properties and provide geostatistical analysis (ordinary kriging) for mapping dry land soil fertility conditions (SOCs). Conditioned Latin hypercube sampling was used to select the representative sampling sites within the study area. To achieve the objectives of this work, 48 surface soil samples were collected from the western part of Matrouh Governorate, Egypt, and pH, soil organic matter (SOM), available nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) levels were analyzed. Multilinear regression (MLR) was used to model the relationship between image reflectance and laboratory analysis (of pH, SOM, N, P, and K in the soil), followed by mapping the predicted outputs using ordinary kriging. Model fitting was achieved by removing variables according to the confidence level (95%).Around 30% of the samples were randomly selected to verify the validity of the results. The randomly selected samples helped express the variety of the soil characteristics from the investigated area. The predicted values of pH, SOM, N, P, and K performed well, with R2 values of 0.6, 0.7, 0.55, 0.6, and 0.92 achieved for pH, SOM, N, P, and K, respectively. The results from the ArcGIS model builder indicated a descending fertility order within the study area of: 70% low fertility, 22% moderate fertility, 3% very low fertility, and 5% reference terms. This work evidence that which can be predicted from S2A images and provides a reference for soil fertility monitoring in drylands. Additionally, this model can be easily applied to environmental conditions similar to those of the studied area

Integration of Geostatistical and Sentinal-2AMultispectral Satellite Image Analysis for Predicting Soil Fertility Condition in Drylands

For modelling and predicting soil indicators to be fully operational and facilitate decision-making at any spatial level, there is a requirement for precise spatially referenced soil information to be available as input data. This paper focuses on showing the capacity of Sentinal-2A(S2A) multispectral imaging to predict soil properties and provide geostatistical analysis (ordinary kriging) for mapping dry land soil fertility conditions (SOCs). Conditioned Latin hypercube sampling was used to select the representative sampling sites within the study area. To achieve the objectives of this work, 48 surface soil samples were collected from the western part of Matrouh Governorate, Egypt, and pH, soil organic matter (SOM), available nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) levels were analyzed. Multilinear regression (MLR) was used to model the relationship between image reflectance and laboratory analysis (of pH, SOM, N, P, and K in the soil), followed by mapping the predicted outputs using ordinary kriging. Model fitting was achieved by removing variables according to the confidence level (95%).Around 30% of the samples were randomly selected to verify the validity of the results. The randomly selected samples helped express the variety of the soil characteristics from the investigated area. The predicted values of pH, SOM, N, P, and K performed well, with R2 values of 0.6, 0.7, 0.55, 0.6, and 0.92 achieved for pH, SOM, N, P, and K, respectively. The results from the ArcGIS model builder indicated a descending fertility order within the study area of: 70% low fertility, 22% moderate fertility, 3% very low fertility, and 5% reference terms. This work evidence that which can be predicted from S2A images and provides a reference for soil fertility monitoring in drylands. Additionally, this model can be easily applied to environmental conditions similar to those of the studied area

Vis-NIR Spectroscopy and Satellite Landsat-8 OLI Data to Map Soil Nutrients in Arid Conditions: A Case Study of the Northwest Coast of Egypt

The mapping of soil nutrients is a key issue for numerous applications and research fields ranging from global changes to environmental degradation, from sustainable soil management to the precision agriculture concept. The characterization, modeling and mapping of soil properties at diverse spatial and temporal scales are key factors required for different environments. This paper is focused on the use and comparison of soil chemical analyses, Visible near infrared and shortwave infrared VNIR-SWIR spectroscopy, partial least-squares regression (PLSR), Ordinary Kriging (OK), and Landsat-8 operational land imager (OLI) images, to inexpensively analyze and predict the content of different soil nutrients (nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K)), pH, and soil organic matter (SOM) in arid conditions. To achieve this aim, 100 surface samples of soil were gathered to a depth of 25 cm in the Wadi El-Garawla area (the northwest coast of Egypt) using chemical analyses and reflectance spectroscopy in the wavelength range from 350 to 2500 nm. PLSR was used firstly to model the relationship between the averaged values from the ASD spectroradiometer and the available N, P, and K, pH and SOM contents in soils in order to map the predicted value using Ordinary Kriging (OK) and secondly to retrieve N, P, K, pH, and SOM values from OLI images. Thirty soil samples were selected to verify the validity of the results. The randomly selected samples included the spatial diversity and characteristics of the study area. The prediction of available of N, P, K pH and SOM in soils using VNIR-SWIR spectroscopy showed high performance (where R2 was 0.89, 0.72, 0.91, 0.65, and 0.75, respectively) and quite satisfactory results from Landsat-8 OLI images (correlation R2 values 0.71, 0.68, 0.55, 0.62 and 0.7, respectively). The results showed that about 84% of the soils of Wadi El-Garawla are characterized by low-to-moderate fertility, while about 16% of the area is characterized by high soil fertility

Soil Salinity Assessing and Mapping Using Several Statistical and Distribution Techniques in Arid and Semi-Arid Ecosystems, Egypt

Oasis lands in Egypt are commonly described as salty soils; therefore, waterlogging and higher soil salinity are major obstacles to sustainable agricultural development. This study aims to map and assess soil salinization at El-Farafra Oasis in the Egypt Western Desert based on salinity indices, Imaging Spectroscopy (IS), and statistical techniques. The regression model was developed to test the relationship between the electrical conductivity (ECe) of 70 surface soil samples and seven salinity indices (SI 1, SI 2, SI 5, SI 6, SI 7, SI 8, and SI 9) to produce soil salinity maps depending on Landsat-8 (OLI) images. The investigations of soil salinization and salinity indices were validated in a studied area based on 30 soil samples; the obtained results represented that all salinity indices have shown satisfactory correlations between ECe values for each soil sample site and salinity indices, except for the SI 5 index that present non-significant correlations with R2 value of 0.2688. The SI 8 index shows a higher negative significant correlation with ECe and an R2 value of 0.6356. There is a significant positive correlation at the (p e (r = 0.514), a non-significant correlation at the (p e and SI 1 index (r = 0.495), and the best-verified salinity index was for SI 7 that has a low estimated RMSE error of 8.58. Finally, the highest standard error (R2) was represented as ECe (dS m−1) with an R2 of 0.881, and the lowest one was SI 9 with an R2 of 0.428, according to Tukey’s test analysis. Therefore, observing and investigating soil salinity are essential requirements for appropriate natural resource management plans in the future