Construct-level predictive validity of educational attainment and intellectual aptitude tests in medical student selection: meta-regression of six UK longitudinal studies

Background: Measures used for medical student selection should predict future performance during training. A problem for any selection study is that predictor-outcome correlations are known only in those who have been selected, whereas selectors need to know how measures would predict in the entire pool of applicants. That problem of interpretation can be solved by calculating construct-level predictive validity, an estimate of true predictor-outcome correlation across the range of applicant abilities. Methods: Construct-level predictive validities were calculated in six cohort studies of medical student selection and training (student entry, 1972 to 2009) for a range of predictors, including A-levels, General Certificates of Secondary Education (GCSEs)/O-levels, and aptitude tests (AH5 and UK Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT)). Outcomes included undergraduate basic medical science and finals assessments, as well as postgraduate measures of Membership of the Royal Colleges of Physicians of the United Kingdom (MRCP(UK)) performance and entry in the Specialist Register. Construct-level predictive validity was calculated with the method of Hunter, Schmidt and Le (2006), adapted to correct for right-censorship of examination results due to grade inflation. Results: Meta-regression analyzed 57 separate predictor-outcome correlations (POCs) and construct-level predictive validities (CLPVs). Mean CLPVs are substantially higher (.450) than mean POCs (.171). Mean CLPVs for first-year examinations, were high for A-levels (.809; CI: .501 to .935), and lower for GCSEs/O-levels (.332; CI: .024 to .583) and UKCAT (mean = .245; CI: .207 to .276). A-levels had higher CLPVs for all undergraduate and postgraduate assessments than did GCSEs/O-levels and intellectual aptitude tests. CLPVs of educational attainment measures decline somewhat during training, but continue to predict postgraduate performance. Intellectual aptitude tests have lower CLPVs than A-levels or GCSEs/O-levels. Conclusions: Educational attainment has strong CLPVs for undergraduate and postgraduate performance, accounting for perhaps 65% of true variance in first year performance. Such CLPVs justify the use of educational attainment measure in selection, but also raise a key theoretical question concerning the remaining 35% of variance (and measurement error, range restriction and right-censorship have been taken into account). Just as in astrophysics, ‘dark matter’ and ‘dark energy’ are posited to balance various theoretical equations, so medical student selection must also have its ‘dark variance’, whose nature is not yet properly characterized, but explains a third of the variation in performance during training. Some variance probably relates to factors which are unpredictable at selection, such as illness or other life events, but some is probably also associated with factors such as personality, motivation or study skills

Reciprocity as a foundation of financial economics

This paper argues that the subsistence of the fundamental theorem of contemporary financial mathematics is the ethical concept ‘reciprocity’. The argument is based on identifying an equivalence between the contemporary, and ostensibly ‘value neutral’, Fundamental Theory of Asset Pricing with theories of mathematical probability that emerged in the seventeenth century in the context of the ethical assessment of commercial contracts in a framework of Aristotelian ethics. This observation, the main claim of the paper, is justified on the basis of results from the Ultimatum Game and is analysed within a framework of Pragmatic philosophy. The analysis leads to the explanatory hypothesis that markets are centres of communicative action with reciprocity as a rule of discourse. The purpose of the paper is to reorientate financial economics to emphasise the objectives of cooperation and social cohesion and to this end, we offer specific policy advice

Health care costs, utilization and patterns of care following Lyme disease

BACKGROUND:Lyme disease is the most frequently reported vector borne infection in the United States. The Centers for Disease Control have estimated that approximately 10% to 20% of individuals may experience Post-Treatment Lyme Disease Syndrome - a set of symptoms including fatigue, musculoskeletal pain, and neurocognitive complaints that persist after initial antibiotic treatment of Lyme disease. Little is known about the impact of Lyme disease or post-treatment Lyme disease symptoms (PTLDS) on health care costs and utilization in the United States. OBJECTIVES:1) to examine the impact of Lyme disease on health care costs and utilization, 2) to understand the relationship between Lyme disease and the probability of developing PTLDS, 3) to understand how PTLDS may impact health care costs and utilization. METHODS:This study utilizes retrospective data on medical claims and member enrollment for persons aged 0-64 years who were enrolled in commercial health insurance plans in the United States between 2006-2010. 52,795 individuals treated for Lyme disease were compared to 263,975 matched controls with no evidence of Lyme disease exposure. RESULTS:Lyme disease is associated with $2,968 higher total health care costs (95$3,798 higher total health care costs (95% CI: 3,542-4,055, p<.001) and 66% more outpatient visits (95% CI: 64%-69%, p<.001) over a 12-month period, relative to those with no PTLDS-related diagnoses. CONCLUSIONS:Lyme disease is associated with increased costs above what would be expected for an easy to treat infection. The presence of PTLDS-related diagnoses after treatment is associated with significant health care costs and utilization

Monsters, Laws of Nature, and Teleology in Late Scholastic Textbooks

In the period of emergence of early modern science, ‘monsters’ or individuals with physical congenital anomalies were considered as rare events which required special explanations entailing assumptions about the laws of nature. This concern with monsters was shared by representatives of the new science and Late Scholastic authors of university textbooks. This paper will reconstruct the main theses of the treatment of monsters in Late Scholastic textbooks, by focusing on the question as to how their accounts conceived nature’s regularity and teleology. It shows that they developed a naturalistic teratology in which, in contrast to the naturalistic explanations usually offered by the new science, finality was at central stage. This general point does not impede our noticing that some authors were closer to the views emerging in the Scientific Revolution insofar as they conceived nature as relatively autonomous from God and gave a relevant place to efficient secondary causation. In this connection, this paper suggests that the concept of the laws of nature developed by the new science –as exception-less regularities—transferred to nature’s regularity the ‘strong’ character that Late Scholasticism attributed to finality and that the decline of the Late Scholastic view of finality played as an important concomitant factor permitting the transformation of the concept of laws of nature

Transcriptional Profiling of Bacillus anthracis Sterne (34F2) during Iron Starvation

Lack of available iron is one of many environmental challenges that a bacterium encounters during infection and adaptation to iron starvation is important for the pathogen to efficiently replicate within the host. Here we define the transcriptional response of B. anthracis Sterne (34F2) to iron depleted conditions. Genome-wide transcript analysis showed that B. anthracis undergoes considerable changes in gene expression during growth in iron-depleted media, including the regulation of known and candidate virulence factors. Two genes encoding putative internalin proteins were chosen for further study. Deletion of either gene (GBAA0552 or GBAA1340) resulted in attenuation in a murine model of infection. This attenuation was amplified in a double mutant strain. These data define the transcriptional changes induced during growth in low iron conditions and illustrate the potential of this dataset in the identification of putative virulence determinants for future study

Cluster Lenses

Clusters of galaxies are the most recently assembled, massive, bound structures in the Universe. As predicted by General Relativity, given their masses, clusters strongly deform space-time in their vicinity. Clusters act as some of the most powerful gravitational lenses in the Universe. Light rays traversing through clusters from distant sources are hence deflected, and the resulting images of these distant objects therefore appear distorted and magnified. Lensing by clusters occurs in two regimes, each with unique observational signatures. The strong lensing regime is characterized by effects readily seen by eye, namely, the production of giant arcs, multiple-images, and arclets. The weak lensing regime is characterized by small deformations in the shapes of background galaxies only detectable statistically. Cluster lenses have been exploited successfully to address several important current questions in cosmology: (i) the study of the lens(es) - understanding cluster mass distributions and issues pertaining to cluster formation and evolution, as well as constraining the nature of dark matter; (ii) the study of the lensed objects - probing the properties of the background lensed galaxy population - which is statistically at higher redshifts and of lower intrinsic luminosity thus enabling the probing of galaxy formation at the earliest times right up to the Dark Ages; and (iii) the study of the geometry of the Universe - as the strength of lensing depends on the ratios of angular diameter distances between the lens, source and observer, lens deflections are sensitive to the value of cosmological parameters and offer a powerful geometric tool to probe Dark Energy. In this review, we present the basics of cluster lensing and provide a current status report of the field.Comment: About 120 pages - Published in Open Access at: http://www.springerlink.com/content/j183018170485723/ . arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:astro-ph/0504478 and arXiv:1003.3674 by other author

Hemorrhagic shock and encephalopathy syndrome – the markers for an early HSES diagnosis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The hemorrhagic shock and encephalopathy syndrome (HSES) is a devastating disease that affects young children. The outcomes of HSES patients are often fatal or manifesting severe neurological sequelae. We reviewed the markers for an early diagnosis of HSES.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We examined the clinical, biological and radiological findings of 8 patients (4 months to 9 years old) who met the HSES criteria.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Although cerebral edema, disseminated intravascular coagulopathy (DIC), and multiple organ failure were seen in all 8 cases during their clinical courses, brain computed tomography (CT) scans showed normal or only slight edema in 5 patients upon admission. All 8 patients had normal platelet counts, and none were in shock. However, they all had severe metabolic acidosis, which persisted even after 3 hours (median base excess (BE), -7.6 mmol/L). And at 6 hours after admission (BE, -5.7 mmol/L) they required mechanical ventilation. Within 12 hours after admission, fluid resuscitation and vasopressor infusion for hypotension was required. Seven of the patients had elevated liver enzymes and creatine kinase (CK) upon admission. Twenty-four hours after admission, all 8 patients needed vasopressor infusion to maintain blood pressure.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>CT scan, platelet count, hemoglobin level and renal function upon admission are not useful for an early diagnosis of HSES. However, the elevated liver enzymes and CK upon admission, hypotension in the early stage after admission with refractory acid-base disturbance to fluid resuscitation and vasopressor infusion are useful markers for an early HSES diagnosis and helpful to indicate starting intensive neurological treatment.</p

Differentially expressed genes in a flock of Chinese local-breed chickens infected with a subgroup J avian leukosis virus using suppression subtractive hybridization

Avian leukosis virus subgroup J (ALV-J) is a new type of virus that mainly induces myeloid leukosis (ML) in chickens. To further elucidate the pathogenesis of ALV-J infection and tumor development, expression profiles from the bone marrow tissue of 15 infected and 18 non-infected birds from a local-breed poultry-farm under naturally infected conditions, were analyzed by suppression-subtractive hybridization. The birds were diagnosed as ML+ (or ML-) by specific ALV-J detection methods, involving serological tests for antigens and antibodies, and RT-PCR to detect viral RNA. A total of 59 partial gene sequences were revealed by differential screening of 496 forward and 384 reverse subtracted cDNA clones. Of these, 22 identified genes, including 8 up-regulated and 14 down-regulated, were related to immune functions, these genes being, MHC B-G antigen, translationally-controlled tumor protein (TPT1/TPTC), transferrin and ferritin, hemoglobin and Carbonic anhydrase. Four of the down-regulated genes were selected for further analysis, in view of their predicted roles in infection and immunity by real-time qRT-PCR, using RNA collected from the same birds as those used for SSH. The four genes were expressed at significantly lower levels (p < 0.001) in ALV-J infected birds than in non-infected ones

Prevalence of Abnormalities in Vestibular Function and Balance among HIV-Seropositive and HIV-Seronegative Women and Men

BACKGROUND: Most HIV-seropositive subjects in western countries receive highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Although many aspects of their health have been studied, little is known about their vestibular and balance function. The goals of this study were to determine the prevalences of vestibular and balance impairments among HIV-seropositive and comparable seronegative men and women and to determine if those groups differed. METHODS: Standard screening tests of vestibular and balance function, including head thrusts, Dix-Hallpike maneuvers, and Romberg balance tests on compliant foam were performed during semiannual study visits of participants who were enrolled in the Baltimore and Washington, D. C. sites of the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study and the Women's Interagency HIV Study. RESULTS: No significant differences by HIV status were found on most tests, but HIV-seropositive subjects who were using HAART had a lower frequency of abnormal Dix-Hallpike nystagmus than HIV-seronegative subjects. A significant number of nonclassical Dix-Hallpike responses were found. Age was associated with Romberg scores on foam with eyes closed. Sex was not associated with any of the test scores. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that HAART-treated HIV infection has no harmful association with vestibular function in community-dwelling, ambulatory men and women. The association with age was expected, but the lack of association with sex was unexpected. The presence of nonclassical Dix-Hallpike responses might be consistent with central nervous system lesions