Comparative quantification of health risks: Conceptual framework and methodological issues

Reliable and comparable analysis of risks to health is key for preventing disease and injury. Causal attribution of morbidity and mortality to risk factors has traditionally been conducted in the context of methodological traditions of individual risk factors, often in a limited number of settings, restricting comparability. In this paper, we discuss the conceptual and methodological issues for quantifying the population health effects of individual or groups of risk factors in various levels of causality using knowledge from different scientific disciplines. The issues include: comparing the burden of disease due to the observed exposure distribution in a population with the burden from a hypothetical distribution or series of distributions, rather than a single reference level such as non-exposed; considering the multiple stages in the causal network of interactions among risk factor(s) and disease outcome to allow making inferences about some combinations of risk factors for which epidemiological studies have not been conducted, including the joint effects of multiple risk factors; calculating the health loss due to risk factor(s) as a time-indexed "stream" of disease burden due to a time-indexed "stream" of exposure, including consideration of discounting; and the sources of uncertainty

RESEARCH ARTICLE Body-size structure of Central Iberian mammal fauna reveals semidesertic conditions during the middle Miocene Global Cooling Event

We developed new quantitative palaeoclimatic inference models based on the body-size structure of mammal faunas from the Old World tropics and applied them to the Somosaguas fossil site (middle Miocene, central Iberian Peninsula). Twenty-six mammal species have been described at this site, including proboscideans, ungulates, carnivores, insectivores, lagomorphs and rodents. Our analyses were based on multivariate and bivariate regression models correlating climatic data and body-size structure of 63 modern mammal assemblages from Sub-Saharan Africa and the Indian subcontinent. The results showed an average temperature of the coldest month higher than 26ÊC for the Somosaguas fossil site, a mean annual thermal amplitude around 10ÊC, a drought length of 10 months, and an annual total precipitation greater than 200 mm per year, which are climate conditions typical of an ecotonal zone between the savanna and desert biomes. These results are congruent with the aridity peaks described over the middle Aragonian of Spain and particularly in the local biozone E, which includes Somosaguas. The aridity increase detected in this biozone is associated with the Middle Miocene Global Cooling Event. The environment of Somosaguas around 14 Ma was similar to the current environment in the Sahel region of North Africa, the Horn of Africa, the boundary area between the Kalahari and the Namib in Southern Africa, south-central Arabia, or eastern Pakistan and northwestern India. The distribution of modern vegetation in these regions follows a complex mosaic of plant communities, dominated by scattered xerophilous shrublands, semidesert grasslands, and vegetation linked to seasonal watercourses and ponds.Peer reviewe