A simple genetic algorithm for calibration of stochastic rock discontinuity networks

Este artículo propone un método para llevar a cabo la calibración de las familias de discontinuidades en macizos rocosos. We present a novel approach for calibration of stochastic discontinuity network parameters based on genetic algorithms (GAs). To validate the approach, examples of application of the method to cases with known parameters of the original Poisson discontinuity network are presented. Parameters of the model are encoded as chromosomes using a binary representation, and such chromosomes evolve as successive generations of a randomly generated initial population, subjected to GA operations of selection, crossover and mutation. Such back-calculated parameters are employed to make assessments about the inference capabilities of the model using different objective functions with different probabilities of crossover and mutation. Results show that the predictive capabilities of GAs significantly depend on the type of objective function considered; and they also show that the calibration capabilities of the genetic algorithm can be acceptable for practical engineering applications, since in most cases they can be expected to provide parameter estimates with relatively small errors for those parameters of the network (such as intensity and mean size of discontinuities) that have the strongest influence on many engineering applications

A prospective study of chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia in the South West London Cancer Network. Interpretation of study results in light of NCAG/NCEPOD findings

BACKGROUND: Chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia is a medical emergency complicating the treatment of many cancer patients. It is associated with considerable morbidity and mortality, as well as impacting on healthcare resources. METHODS: A prospective study of all cases of chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia in the South West London Cancer Network was conducted over a 4-month period. Factors including demographics, treatment history, management of febrile neutropenia and outcome were recorded. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: Our results reflect those of the recent National Chemotherapy Advisory Group (NCEPOD, 2008)/National Confidential Enquiry into Patient Outcomes and Death reports (NCAG, 2009) and highlight the need for network-wide c inical care pathways to improve outcomes in this area, British Journal of Cancer (2011) 104, 407-412. doi:10.1038/sj.bjc.6606059 www.bjcancer.com Published online 21 December 2010 (C) 2011 Cancer Research U

HPV type-specific prevalence using a urine assay in unvaccinated male and female 11- to 18-year olds in Scotland

We conducted a baseline prevalence survey of unvaccinated 11- to 18-year olds to inform effectiveness studies for the new human papillomavirus (HPV) immunisation programme in Scotland

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Two-Season ACTPol Spectra and Parameters

We present the temperature and polarization angular power spectra measured by the Atacama Cosmology Telescope Polarimeter (ACTPol). We analyze night-time data collected during 2013-14 using two detector arrays at 149 GHz, from 548 deg$^2$ of sky on the celestial equator. We use these spectra, and the spectra measured with the MBAC camera on ACT from 2008-10, in combination with Planck and WMAP data to estimate cosmological parameters from the temperature, polarization, and temperature-polarization cross-correlations. We find the new ACTPol data to be consistent with the LCDM model. The ACTPol temperature-polarization cross-spectrum now provides stronger constraints on multiple parameters than the ACTPol temperature spectrum, including the baryon density, the acoustic peak angular scale, and the derived Hubble constant. Adding the new data to planck temperature data tightens the limits on damping tail parameters, for example reducing the joint uncertainty on the number of neutrino species and the primordial helium fraction by 20%.Comment: 23 pages, 25 figure

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Cosmological parameters from three seasons of data

We present constraints on cosmological and astrophysical parameters from high-resolution microwave background maps at 148 GHz and 218 GHz made by the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) in three seasons of observations from 2008 to 2010. A model of primary cosmological and secondary foreground parameters is fit to the map power spectra and lensing deflection power spectrum, including contributions from both the thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich (tSZ) effect and the kinematic Sunyaev-Zeldovich (kSZ) effect, Poisson and correlated anisotropy from unresolved infrared sources, radio sources, and the correlation between the tSZ effect and infrared sources. The power ell^2 C_ell/2pi of the thermal SZ power spectrum at 148 GHz is measured to be 3.4 +\- 1.4 muK^2 at ell=3000, while the corresponding amplitude of the kinematic SZ power spectrum has a 95% confidence level upper limit of 8.6 muK^2. Combining ACT power spectra with the WMAP 7-year temperature and polarization power spectra, we find excellent consistency with the LCDM model. We constrain the number of effective relativistic degrees of freedom in the early universe to be Neff=2.79 +\- 0.56, in agreement with the canonical value of Neff=3.046 for three massless neutrinos. We constrain the sum of the neutrino masses to be Sigma m_nu < 0.39 eV at 95% confidence when combining ACT and WMAP 7-year data with BAO and Hubble constant measurements. We constrain the amount of primordial helium to be Yp = 0.225 +\- 0.034, and measure no variation in the fine structure constant alpha since recombination, with alpha/alpha0 = 1.004 +/- 0.005. We also find no evidence for any running of the scalar spectral index, dns/dlnk = -0.004 +\- 0.012.Comment: 26 pages, 22 figures. This paper is a companion to Das et al. (2013) and Dunkley et al. (2013). Matches published JCAP versio

Prophylaxis of chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia with granulocyte colony-stimulating factors: where are we now?

Updated international guidelines published in 2006 have broadened the scope for the use of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) in supporting delivery of myelosuppressive chemotherapy. G-CSF prophylaxis is now recommended when the overall risk of febrile neutropenia (FN) due to regimen and individual patient factors is ≥20%, for supporting dose-dense and dose-intense chemotherapy and to help maintain dose density where dose reductions have been shown to compromise outcomes. Indeed, there is now a large body of evidence for the efficacy of G-CSFs in supporting dose-dense chemotherapy. Predictive tools that can help target those patients who are most at risk of FN are now becoming available. Recent analyses have shown that, by reducing the risk of FN and chemotherapy dose delays and reductions, G-CSF prophylaxis can potentially enhance survival benefits in patients receiving chemotherapy in curative settings. Accumulating data from ‘real-world’ clinical practice settings indicate that patients often receive abbreviated courses of daily G-CSF and consequently obtain a reduced level of FN protection. A single dose of PEGylated G-CSF (pegfilgrastim) may provide a more effective, as well as a more convenient, alternative to daily G-CSF. Prospective studies are needed to validate the importance of delivering the full dose intensity of standard chemotherapy regimens, with G-CSF support where appropriate, across a range of settings. These studies should also incorporate prospective evaluation of risk stratification for neutropenia and its complications

Meta-analysis of tumour burden in pre-operative axillary ultrasound positive and negative breast cancer patients

Management of the axilla in breast cancer is becoming increasingly conservative. Patients identified with a low axillary nodal burden (two or fewer involved nodes) at sentinel node biopsy (SNB) can avoid completion axillary node clearance (cANC). 'Fast track' to ANC in patients with involved nodes on pre-operative ultrasound may be over-treating a subgroup of these patients with low nodal burden, which would have precluded their need for ANC. This systematic review assesses the proportion of patients with involved nodes on pre-operative axillary ultrasound, which would fit low axillary burden criteria. Meta-analysis of studies comparing axillary burden of breast cancer patients identified as pre-operative ultrasound negative versus positive was performed. The primary outcome measure was the number of patients with two or fewer involved nodes (macrometastases only). Pooled odds ratio (OR), 95% confidence intervals (CIs), means and probabilities of identifying two or fewer involved nodes versus greater than two were calculated. Six studies reported the axillary burden in 4271 patients who were either directed straight to ANC or cANC after SNB. There was a significantly greater axillary burden in the ultrasound positive versus negative groups (OR 5.95, 95% CI 5.80-6.11) with mean nodal retrieval values of 2.9 [standard error (SE) 0.2] and 1.6 (SE 0.2) nodes, respectively. Cumulative probabilities identified 78.9% of ultrasound negative and 43.2% of ultrasound positive patients possessed low axillary burden. Pre-operative ultrasound positive patients have significantly higher axillary burden. However, nearly half do fit the criteria of low axillary burden and could be considered for omission of ANC

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Genetic Diversity and Population Parameters of Sea Otters, Enhydra lutris, before Fur Trade Extirpation from 1741–1911

All existing sea otter, Enhydra lutris, populations have suffered at least one historic population bottleneck stemming from the fur trade extirpations of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. We examined genetic variation, gene flow, and population structure at five microsatellite loci in samples from five pre-fur trade populations throughout the sea otter's historical range: California, Oregon, Washington, Alaska, and Russia. We then compared those values to genetic diversity and population structure found within five modern sea otter populations throughout their current range: California, Prince William Sound, Amchitka Island, Southeast Alaska and Washington. We found twice the genetic diversity in the pre-fur trade populations when compared to modern sea otters, a level of diversity that was similar to levels that are found in other mammal populations that have not experienced population bottlenecks. Even with the significant loss in genetic diversity modern sea otters have retained historical structure. There was greater gene flow before extirpation than that found among modern sea otter populations but the difference was not statistically significant. The most dramatic effect of pre fur trade population extirpation was the loss of genetic diversity. For long term conservation of these populations increasing gene flow and the maintenance of remnant genetic diversity should be encouraged

Using Entropy Maximization to Understand the Determinants of Structural Dynamics beyond Native Contact Topology

Comparison of elastic network model predictions with experimental data has provided important insights on the dominant role of the network of inter-residue contacts in defining the global dynamics of proteins. Most of these studies have focused on interpreting the mean-square fluctuations of residues, or deriving the most collective, or softest, modes of motions that are known to be insensitive to structural and energetic details. However, with increasing structural data, we are in a position to perform a more critical assessment of the structure-dynamics relations in proteins, and gain a deeper understanding of the major determinants of not only the mean-square fluctuations and lowest frequency modes, but the covariance or the cross-correlations between residue fluctuations and the shapes of higher modes. A systematic study of a large set of NMR-determined proteins is analyzed using a novel method based on entropy maximization to demonstrate that the next level of refinement in the elastic network model description of proteins ought to take into consideration properties such as contact order (or sequential separation between contacting residues) and the secondary structure types of the interacting residues, whereas the types of amino acids do not play a critical role. Most importantly, an optimal description of observed cross-correlations requires the inclusion of destabilizing, as opposed to exclusively stabilizing, interactions, stipulating the functional significance of local frustration in imparting native-like dynamics. This study provides us with a deeper understanding of the structural basis of experimentally observed behavior, and opens the way to the development of more accurate models for exploring protein dynamics