1,122 research outputs found

    Assessing and reporting heterogeneity in treatment effects in clinical trials: a proposal

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    Mounting evidence suggests that there is frequently considerable variation in the risk of the outcome of interest in clinical trial populations. These differences in risk will often cause clinically important heterogeneity in treatment effects (HTE) across the trial population, such that the balance between treatment risks and benefits may differ substantially between large identifiable patient subgroups; the "average" benefit observed in the summary result may even be non-representative of the treatment effect for a typical patient in the trial. Conventional subgroup analyses, which examine whether specific patient characteristics modify the effects of treatment, are usually unable to detect even large variations in treatment benefit (and harm) across risk groups because they do not account for the fact that patients have multiple characteristics simultaneously that affect the likelihood of treatment benefit. Based upon recent evidence on optimal statistical approaches to assessing HTE, we propose a framework that prioritizes the analysis and reporting of multivariate risk-based HTE and suggests that other subgroup analyses should be explicitly labeled either as primary subgroup analyses (well-motivated by prior evidence and intended to produce clinically actionable results) or secondary (exploratory) subgroup analyses (performed to inform future research). A standardized and transparent approach to HTE assessment and reporting could substantially improve clinical trial utility and interpretability

    A randomised control crossover trial of a theory based intervention to improve sun-safe and healthy behaviours in construction workers:Study protocol

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    Abstract Background Exposure to sunlight can have both positive and negative health impacts. Excessive exposure to ultra-violet (UV) radiation from the sun can cause skin cancer, however insufficient exposure to sunlight has a detrimental effect on production of Vitamin D. In the construction industry there are onsite proactive behaviours for safety, but sun-safety remains a low priority. There is limited research on understanding the barriers to adopting sun-safe behaviours and the association this may have with Vitamin D production. This paper reports a protocol for an intervention study, using text messaging in combination with a supportive smartphone App. The intervention aims to both reduce UV exposure during months with higher UV levels and promote appropriate dietary changes to boost Vitamin D levels during months with low UV levels. Method/design Approximately 60 construction workers will be recruited across the United Kingdom. A randomised control crossover trial (RCCT) will be used to test the intervention, with randomisation at site level – i.e. participants will receive both the control (no text messages or supportive App support) and intervention (daily text messages and supportive App). Using the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) the intervention focuses on supporting sun-safety and healthy dietary decisions in relation to Vitamin D intake. The intervention emphasises cultivating the perception of normative support in the workplace, increasing awareness of control and self-efficacy in taking sun-protective behaviours, making healthier eating choices to boost Vitamin D, and tackling stigmas attached to image and group norms. Each study epoch will last 21 days with intervention text messages delivered on workdays only. The supportive App will provide supplementary information about sun protective behaviours and healthy dietary choices. The primary outcome measure is 25-hydroxy-Vitamin D [25(OH)D] level (obtained using blood spot sampling), which will be taken pre and post control and intervention periods. Secondary outcome measures are two-fold, (1) using the TPB to detect changes in behaviour, and (2) quantifying UV exposure during the UK peak radiation season (April–September) using body-mounted UV sensors. Discussion This study will provide important information about the effectiveness of a technology-based intervention to promote sun-safety and healthy behaviours in outdoor construction workers. Trial registration ISRCTN15888934 retrospectively registered 15.01.2018

    Embolic stroke complicating Staphylococcus aureus endocarditis circumstantially linked to rectal trauma from foreign body: a first case report

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    BACKGROUND: Diagnostic and therapeutic instrumentation of the lower gastrointestinal tract has been reported to result in bacteremia and endocarditis. No such case has been reported in persons with a history of rectal foreign body insertion despite its potential for greater trauma. CASE PRESENTATION: A 58-year-old male was admitted with confusion and inability to speak. His past history was notable for hospitalization to extract a retained plastic soda bottle from the rectosigmoid two years prior. On examination, he was febrile, tachycardic and hypotensive. There was an apical pansystolic murmur on cardiac examination. He had a mixed receptive and expressive aphasia, and a right hemiparesis. On rectal examination he had perianal erythema and diminished sphincter tone. Magnetic resonance imaging of the brain showed infarction of the occipital and frontal lobes. Transesophageal Echocardiography of the heart revealed vegetations on the mitral valve. All of his blood culture bottles grew methicillin sensitive Staphylococcus aureus. He was successfully treated for bacterial endocarditis with intravenous nafcillin and gentamicin. The rectum is frequently colonized by Staphylococcus aureus and trauma to its mucosa can lead to bacteremia and endocarditis with this organism. In the absence of corroborative evidence such as presented here, it is difficult to make a correlation between staphylococcal endocarditis and anorectal foreign body insertion due to patients being less than forthcoming CONCLUSION: There is a potential risk of staphylococcal bacteremia and endocarditis with rectal foreign body insertion. Further studies are needed to explore this finding. Detailed sexual history and patient counseling should be made a part of routine primary care

    6Questionnaire-based approach to assess schoolchildren's physical fitness and its potential role in exploring the putative impact of helminth and Plasmodium spp. infections in Côte d'Ivoire

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    BACKGROUND: Disability weights (DWs) are important for estimating burden of disease in terms of disability-adjusted life years. The previous practice of eliciting DWs by expert opinion has been challenged. More recent approaches employed quality of life (QoL) questionnaires to establish patient-based DWs, but results are ambiguous. METHODS: In early 2010, we administered a questionnaire pertaining to physical fitness to 200 schoolchildren in Cote d'Ivoire. Helminth and Plasmodium spp. infections were determined and schoolchildren's physical fitness objectively measured in a maximal multistage 20 m shuttle run test. Associations between objectively measured and self-reported physical fitness and between self-reported physical fitness and infection status were determined. Spearman rank correlation coefficient, uni- and multivariable linear regression models adjusting for children's age and sex, ambient air temperature and humidity, Fisher's test, chi^2 and t-test statistics were used for statistical analysis. RESULTS: The prevalence of Schistosoma haematobium, Plasmodium spp., Schistosoma mansoni, hookworm and Ascaris lumbricoides in 167 children with complete parasitological results was 84.4%, 74.9%, 54.5%, 14.4% and 1.2%, respectively. High infection intensities and multiple species parasite infections were common. In the 137 children with complete data also from the shuttle run test, we found statistically significant correlations between objectively measured and self-reported physical fitness. However, no statistically significant correlation between the children's parasitic infection status and self-reported physical fitness was identified. An attrition analysis revealed considerably lower self-reported physical fitness scores of parasitized children who were excluded from shuttle run testing due to medical concerns in comparison to parasitized children who were able to successfully complete the shuttle run test. CONCLUSIONS: Our QoL questionnaire proofed valid to assess children's physical fitness in the current study area. Reasons why no differences in self-reported physical fitness in children with different parasitic infections were found are manifold, but do not preclude the use of QoL questionnaires in the elicitation of DWs. Indeed, the questionnaire was particularly useful in assessing physical fitness of those children, who were - supposedly due to parasitic infections - unable to complete the shuttle run test. Hence, we encourage others to use QoL questionnaires to determine not only physical fitness, but also more subtle morbidities

    Distinct Mechanisms for Induction and Tolerance Regulate the Immediate Early Genes Encoding Interleukin 1β and Tumor Necrosis Factor α

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    Interleukin-1β and Tumor Necrosis Factor α play related, but distinct, roles in immunity and disease. Our study revealed major mechanistic distinctions in the Toll-like receptor (TLR) signaling-dependent induction for the rapidly expressed genes (IL1B and TNF) coding for these two cytokines. Prior to induction, TNF exhibited pre-bound TATA Binding Protein (TBP) and paused RNA Polymerase II (Pol II), hallmarks of poised immediate-early (IE) genes. In contrast, unstimulated IL1B displayed very low levels of both TBP and paused Pol II, requiring the lineage-specific Spi-1/PU.1 (Spi1) transcription factor as an anchor for induction-dependent interaction with two TLR-activated transcription factors, C/EBPβ and NF-κB. Activation and DNA binding of these two pre-expressed factors resulted in de novo recruitment of TBP and Pol II to IL1B in concert with a permissive state for elongation mediated by the recruitment of elongation factor P-TEFb. This Spi1-dependent mechanism for IL1B transcription, which is unique for a rapidly-induced/poised IE gene, was more dependent upon P-TEFb than was the case for the TNF gene. Furthermore, the dependence on phosphoinositide 3-kinase for P-TEFb recruitment to IL1B paralleled a greater sensitivity to the metabolic state of the cell and a lower sensitivity to the phenomenon of endotoxin tolerance than was evident for TNF. Such differences in induction mechanisms argue against the prevailing paradigm that all IE genes possess paused Pol II and may further delineate the specific roles played by each of these rapidly expressed immune modulators. © 2013 Adamik et al

    The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Two-Season ACTPol Spectra and Parameters

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    We present the temperature and polarization angular power spectra measured by the Atacama Cosmology Telescope Polarimeter (ACTPol). We analyze night-time data collected during 2013-14 using two detector arrays at 149 GHz, from 548 deg2^2 of sky on the celestial equator. We use these spectra, and the spectra measured with the MBAC camera on ACT from 2008-10, in combination with Planck and WMAP data to estimate cosmological parameters from the temperature, polarization, and temperature-polarization cross-correlations. We find the new ACTPol data to be consistent with the LCDM model. The ACTPol temperature-polarization cross-spectrum now provides stronger constraints on multiple parameters than the ACTPol temperature spectrum, including the baryon density, the acoustic peak angular scale, and the derived Hubble constant. Adding the new data to planck temperature data tightens the limits on damping tail parameters, for example reducing the joint uncertainty on the number of neutrino species and the primordial helium fraction by 20%.Comment: 23 pages, 25 figure

    Multivariable risk prediction can greatly enhance the statistical power of clinical trial subgroup analysis

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    BACKGROUND: When subgroup analyses of a positive clinical trial are unrevealing, such findings are commonly used to argue that the treatment's benefits apply to the entire study population; however, such analyses are often limited by poor statistical power. Multivariable risk-stratified analysis has been proposed as an important advance in investigating heterogeneity in treatment benefits, yet no one has conducted a systematic statistical examination of circumstances influencing the relative merits of this approach vs. conventional subgroup analysis. METHODS: Using simulated clinical trials in which the probability of outcomes in individual patients was stochastically determined by the presence of risk factors and the effects of treatment, we examined the relative merits of a conventional vs. a "risk-stratified" subgroup analysis under a variety of circumstances in which there is a small amount of uniformly distributed treatment-related harm. The statistical power to detect treatment-effect heterogeneity was calculated for risk-stratified and conventional subgroup analysis while varying: 1) the number, prevalence and odds ratios of individual risk factors for risk in the absence of treatment, 2) the predictiveness of the multivariable risk model (including the accuracy of its weights), 3) the degree of treatment-related harm, and 5) the average untreated risk of the study population. RESULTS: Conventional subgroup analysis (in which single patient attributes are evaluated "one-at-a-time") had at best moderate statistical power (30% to 45%) to detect variation in a treatment's net relative risk reduction resulting from treatment-related harm, even under optimal circumstances (overall statistical power of the study was good and treatment-effect heterogeneity was evaluated across a major risk factor [OR = 3]). In some instances a multi-variable risk-stratified approach also had low to moderate statistical power (especially when the multivariable risk prediction tool had low discrimination). However, a multivariable risk-stratified approach can have excellent statistical power to detect heterogeneity in net treatment benefit under a wide variety of circumstances, instances under which conventional subgroup analysis has poor statistical power. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that under many likely scenarios, a multivariable risk-stratified approach will have substantially greater statistical power than conventional subgroup analysis for detecting heterogeneity in treatment benefits and safety related to previously unidentified treatment-related harm. Subgroup analyses must always be well-justified and interpreted with care, and conventional subgroup analyses can be useful under some circumstances; however, clinical trial reporting should include a multivariable risk-stratified analysis when an adequate externally-developed risk prediction tool is available

    The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Cosmological parameters from three seasons of data

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    We present constraints on cosmological and astrophysical parameters from high-resolution microwave background maps at 148 GHz and 218 GHz made by the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) in three seasons of observations from 2008 to 2010. A model of primary cosmological and secondary foreground parameters is fit to the map power spectra and lensing deflection power spectrum, including contributions from both the thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich (tSZ) effect and the kinematic Sunyaev-Zeldovich (kSZ) effect, Poisson and correlated anisotropy from unresolved infrared sources, radio sources, and the correlation between the tSZ effect and infrared sources. The power ell^2 C_ell/2pi of the thermal SZ power spectrum at 148 GHz is measured to be 3.4 +\- 1.4 muK^2 at ell=3000, while the corresponding amplitude of the kinematic SZ power spectrum has a 95% confidence level upper limit of 8.6 muK^2. Combining ACT power spectra with the WMAP 7-year temperature and polarization power spectra, we find excellent consistency with the LCDM model. We constrain the number of effective relativistic degrees of freedom in the early universe to be Neff=2.79 +\- 0.56, in agreement with the canonical value of Neff=3.046 for three massless neutrinos. We constrain the sum of the neutrino masses to be Sigma m_nu < 0.39 eV at 95% confidence when combining ACT and WMAP 7-year data with BAO and Hubble constant measurements. We constrain the amount of primordial helium to be Yp = 0.225 +\- 0.034, and measure no variation in the fine structure constant alpha since recombination, with alpha/alpha0 = 1.004 +/- 0.005. We also find no evidence for any running of the scalar spectral index, dns/dlnk = -0.004 +\- 0.012.Comment: 26 pages, 22 figures. This paper is a companion to Das et al. (2013) and Dunkley et al. (2013). Matches published JCAP versio
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