Hidden Markov Models and their Application for Predicting Failure Events

We show how Markov mixed membership models (MMMM) can be used to predict the degradation of assets. We model the degradation path of individual assets, to predict overall failure rates. Instead of a separate distribution for each hidden state, we use hierarchical mixtures of distributions in the exponential family. In our approach the observation distribution of the states is a finite mixture distribution of a small set of (simpler) distributions shared across all states. Using tied-mixture observation distributions offers several advantages. The mixtures act as a regularization for typically very sparse problems, and they reduce the computational effort for the learning algorithm since there are fewer distributions to be found. Using shared mixtures enables sharing of statistical strength between the Markov states and thus transfer learning. We determine for individual assets the trade-off between the risk of failure and extended operating hours by combining a MMMM with a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) to dynamically optimize the policy for when and how to maintain the asset.Comment: Will be published in the proceedings of ICCS 2020; @Booklet{EasyChair:3183, author = {Paul Hofmann and Zaid Tashman}, title = {Hidden Markov Models and their Application for Predicting Failure Events}, howpublished = {EasyChair Preprint no. 3183}, year = {EasyChair, 2020}

Induction of humoral immune response to multiple recombinant Rhipicephalus appendiculatus antigens and their effect on tick feeding success and pathogen transmission

BACKGROUND: Rhipicephalus appendiculatus is the primary vector of Theileria parva, the etiological agent of East Coast fever (ECF), a devastating disease of cattle in sub-Saharan Africa. We hypothesized that a vaccine targeting tick proteins that are involved in attachment and feeding might affect feeding success and possibly reduce tick-borne transmission of T. parva. Here we report the evaluation of a multivalent vaccine cocktail of tick antigens for their ability to reduce R. appendiculatus feeding success and possibly reduce tick-transmission of T. parva in a natural host-tick-parasite challenge model. METHODS: Cattle were inoculated with a multivalent antigen cocktail containing recombinant tick protective antigen subolesin as well as two additional R. appendiculatus saliva antigens: the cement protein TRP64, and three different histamine binding proteins. The cocktail also contained the T. parva sporozoite antigen p67C. The effect of vaccination on the feeding success of nymphal and adult R. appendiculatus ticks was evaluated together with the effect on transmission of T. parva using a tick challenge model. RESULTS: To our knowledge, this is the first evaluation of the anti-tick effects of these antigens in the natural host-tick-parasite combination. In spite of evidence of strong immune responses to all of the antigens in the cocktail, vaccination with this combination of tick and parasite antigens did not appear to effect tick feeding success or reduce transmission of T. parva. CONCLUSION: The results of this study highlight the importance of early evaluation of anti-tick vaccine candidates in biologically relevant challenge systems using the natural tick-host-parasite combination

Topological robot localization in a large-scale water pipe network

Topological localization is well suited to robots operating in water pipe networks because the environment is well defined as a set of discrete connected places like junctions, customer connections, and access points. Topological methods are more computationally efficient than metric methods, which is important for robots operating in pipes as they will be small with limited computational power. A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) based localization method is presented here, with novel incorporation of measured distance travelled. Improvements to the method are presented which use a reduced definition of the robot state to improve computational efficiency and an alternative motion model where the probability of transitioning to each other state is uniform. Simulation in a large realistic map shows that the use of measured distance travelled improves the localization accuracy by around 70%, that the reduction of the state definition gives an reduction in computational requirement by 75% with only a small loss to accuracy dependant on the robot parameters, and that the alternative motion model gives a further improvement to accuracy

Overexpression of Mcl-1 exacerbates lymphocyte accumulation and autoimmune kidney disease in lpr mice

Cell death by apoptosis has a critical role during embryonic development and in maintaining tissue homeostasis. In mammals, there are two converging apoptosis pathways: the ‘extrinsic’ pathway, which is triggered by engagement of cell surface ‘death receptors’ such as Fas/APO-1; and the ‘intrinsic’ pathway, which is triggered by diverse cellular stresses, and is regulated by prosurvival and pro-apoptotic members of the Bcl-2 family of proteins. Pro-survival Mcl-1, which can block activation of the proapoptotic proteins, Bax and Bak, appears critical for the survival and maintenance of multiple haemopoietic cell types. To investigate the impact on haemopoiesis of simultaneously inhibiting both apoptosis pathways, we introduced the vavP-Mcl-1 transgene, which causes overexpression of Mcl-1 protein in all haemopoietic lineages, into Faslpr/lpr mice, which lack functional Fas and are prone to autoimmunity. The combined mutations had a modest impact on myelopoiesis, primarily an increase in the macrophage/monocyte population in Mcl-1tg/lpr mice compared with lpr or Mcl-1tg mice. The impact on lymphopoiesis was striking, with a marked elevation in all major lymphoid subsets, including the non-conventional double-negative (DN) T cells (TCRβ+ CD4– CD8– B220+ ) characteristic of Faslpr/lpr mice. Of note, the onset of autoimmunity was markedly accelerated in Mcl-1tg/lpr mice compared with lpr mice, and this was preceded by an increase in immunoglobulin (Ig)-producing cells and circulating autoantibodies. This degree of impact was surprising, given the relatively mild phenotype conferred by the vavP-Mcl-1 transgene by itself: a two- to threefold elevation of peripheral B and T cells, no significant increase in the non-conventional DN T-cell population and no autoimmune disease. Comparison of the phenotype with that of other susceptible mice suggests that the development of autoimmune disease in Mcl-1tg/lpr mice may be influenced not only by Ig-producing cells but also other haemopoietic cell types

Physiogenomic analysis of weight loss induced by dietary carbohydrate restriction

BACKGROUND: Diets that restrict carbohydrate (CHO) have proven to be a successful dietary treatment of obesity for many people, but the degree of weight loss varies across individuals. The extent to which genetic factors associate with the magnitude of weight loss induced by CHO restriction is unknown. We examined associations among polymorphisms in candidate genes and weight loss in order to understand the physiological factors influencing body weight responses to CHO restriction. METHODS: We screened for genetic associations with weight loss in 86 healthy adults who were instructed to restrict CHO to a level that induced a small level of ketosis (CHO ~10% of total energy). A total of 27 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were selected from 15 candidate genes involved in fat digestion/metabolism, intracellular glucose metabolism, lipoprotein remodeling, and appetite regulation. Multiple linear regression was used to rank the SNPs according to probability of association, and the most significant associations were analyzed in greater detail. RESULTS: Mean weight loss was 6.4 kg. SNPs in the gastric lipase (LIPF), hepatic glycogen synthase (GYS2), cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) and galanin (GAL) genes were significantly associated with weight loss. CONCLUSION: A strong association between weight loss induced by dietary CHO restriction and variability in genes regulating fat digestion, hepatic glucose metabolism, intravascular lipoprotein remodeling, and appetite were detected. These discoveries could provide clues to important physiologic adaptations underlying the body mass response to CHO restriction

Contrasting Genetic Structure in Two Co-Distributed Species of Old World Fruit Bat

The fulvous fruit bat (Rousettus leschenaulti) and the greater short-nosed fruit bat (Cynopterus sphinx) are two abundant and widely co-distributed Old World fruit bats in Southeast and East Asia. The former species forms large colonies in caves while the latter roots in small groups in trees. To test whether these differences in social organization and roosting ecology are associated with contrasting patterns of gene flow, we used mtDNA and nuclear loci to characterize population genetic subdivision and phylogeographic histories in both species sampled from China, Vietnam and India. Our analyses from R. leschenaulti using both types of marker revealed little evidence of genetic structure across the study region. On the other hand, C. sphinx showed significant genetic mtDNA differentiation between the samples from India compared with China and Vietnam, as well as greater structuring of microsatellite genotypes within China. Demographic analyses indicated signatures of past rapid population expansion in both taxa, with more recent demographic growth in C. sphinx. Therefore, the relative genetic homogeneity in R. leschenaulti is unlikely to reflect past events. Instead we suggest that the absence of substructure in R. leschenaulti is a consequence of higher levels of gene flow among colonies, and that greater vagility in this species is an adaptation associated with cave roosting

Protein and Overtraining: Potential Applications for Free-Living Athletes

Despite a more than adequate protein intake in the general population, athletes have special needs and situations that bring it to the forefront. Overtraining is one example. Hard-training athletes are different from sedentary persons from the sub-cellular to whole-organism level. Moreover, competitive, "free-living" (less-monitored) athletes often encounter negative energy balance, sub-optimal dietary variety, injuries, endocrine exacerbations and immune depression. These factors, coupled with "two-a-day" practices and in-season demands require that protein not be dismissed as automatically adequate or worse, deleterious to health. When applying research to practice settings, one should consider methodological aspects such as population specificity and control variables such as energy balance. This review will address data pertinent to the topic of athletic protein needs, particularly from a standpoint of overtraining and soft tissue recovery. Research-driven strategies for adjusting nutrition and exercise assessments will be offered for consideration. Potentially helpful nutrition interventions for preventing and treating training complications will also be presented

A genome-wide association study identifies new susceptibility loci for esophageal adenocarcinoma and Barrett's esophagus.

Esophageal adenocarcinoma is a cancer with rising incidence and poor survival. Most such cancers arise in a specialized intestinal metaplastic epithelium, which is diagnostic of Barrett's esophagus. In a genome-wide association study, we compared esophageal adenocarcinoma cases (n = 2,390) and individuals with precancerous Barrett's esophagus (n = 3,175) with 10,120 controls in 2 phases. For the combined case group, we identified three new associations. The first is at 19p13 (rs10419226: P = 3.6 × 10(-10)) in CRTC1 (encoding CREB-regulated transcription coactivator), whose aberrant activation has been associated with oncogenic activity. A second is at 9q22 (rs11789015: P = 1.0 × 10(-9)) in BARX1, which encodes a transcription factor important in esophageal specification. A third is at 3p14 (rs2687201: P = 5.5 × 10(-9)) near the transcription factor FOXP1, which regulates esophageal development. We also refine a previously reported association with Barrett's esophagus near the putative tumor suppressor gene FOXF1 at 16q24 and extend our findings to now include esophageal adenocarcinoma

HIV-1 Populations in Semen Arise through Multiple Mechanisms

HIV-1 is present in anatomical compartments and bodily fluids. Most transmissions occur through sexual acts, making virus in semen the proximal source in male donors. We find three distinct relationships in comparing viral RNA populations between blood and semen in men with chronic HIV-1 infection, and we propose that the viral populations in semen arise by multiple mechanisms including: direct import of virus, oligoclonal amplification within the seminal tract, or compartmentalization. In addition, we find significant enrichment of six out of nineteen cytokines and chemokines in semen of both HIV-infected and uninfected men, and another seven further enriched in infected individuals. The enrichment of cytokines involved in innate immunity in the seminal tract, complemented with chemokines in infected men, creates an environment conducive to T cell activation and viral replication. These studies define different relationships between virus in blood and semen that can significantly alter the composition of the viral population at the source that is most proximal to the transmitted virus