The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement’s aim of 1.5 °C warming

The United Nations’ Paris Agreement includes the aim of pursuing efforts to limit global warming to only 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, it is not clear what the resulting climate would look like across the globe and over time. Here we show that trajectories towards a ‘1.5 °C warmer world’ may result in vastly different outcomes at regional scales, owing to variations in the pace and location of climate change and their interactions with society’s mitigation, adaptation and vulnerabilities to climate change. Pursuing policies that are considered to be consistent with the 1.5 °C aim will not completely remove the risk of global temperatures being much higher or of some regional extremes reaching dangerous levels for ecosystems and societies over the coming decades

Exercise therapy for prevention of falls in people with Parkinson's disease: A protocol for a randomised controlled trial and economic evaluation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>People with Parkinson's disease are twice as likely to be recurrent fallers compared to other older people. As these falls have devastating consequences, there is an urgent need to identify and test innovative interventions with the potential to reduce falls in people with Parkinson's disease. The main objective of this randomised controlled trial is to determine whether fall rates can be reduced in people with Parkinson's disease using exercise targeting three potentially remediable risk factors for falls (reduced balance, reduced leg muscle strength and freezing of gait). In addition we will establish the cost effectiveness of the exercise program from the health provider's perspective.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>230 community-dwelling participants with idiopathic Parkinson's disease will be recruited. Eligible participants will also have a history of falls or be identified as being at risk of falls on assessment. Participants will be randomly allocated to a usual-care control group or an intervention group which will undertake weight-bearing balance and strengthening exercises and use cueing strategies to address freezing of gait. The intervention group will choose between the home-based or support group-based mode of the program. Participants in both groups will receive standardized falls prevention advice. The primary outcome measure will be fall rates. Participants will record falls and medical interventions in a diary for the duration of the 6-month intervention period. Secondary measures include the Parkinson's Disease Falls Risk Score, maximal leg muscle strength, standing balance, the Short Physical Performance Battery, freezing of gait, health and well being, habitual physical activity and positive and negative affect schedule.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>No adequately powered studies have investigated exercise interventions aimed at reducing falls in people with Parkinson's disease. This trial will determine the effectiveness of the exercise intervention in reducing falls and its cost effectiveness. This pragmatic program, if found to be effective, has the potential to be implemented within existing community services.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>The protocol for this study is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12608000303347).</p

The degree of segmental aneuploidy measured by total copy number abnormalities predicts survival and recurrence in superficial gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma

Background: Prognostic biomarkers are needed for superficial gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) to predict clinical outcomes and select therapy. Although recurrent mutations have been characterized in EAC, little is known about their clinical and prognostic significance. Aneuploidy is predictive of clinical outcome in many malignancies but has not been evaluated in superficial EAC. Methods: We quantified copy number changes in 41 superficial EAC using Affymetrix SNP 6.0 arrays. We identified recurrent chromosomal gains and losses and calculated the total copy number abnormality (CNA) count for each tumor as a measure of aneuploidy. We correlated CNA count with overall survival and time to first recurrence in univariate and multivariate analyses. Results: Recurrent segmental gains and losses involved multiple genes, including: HER2, EGFR, MET, CDK6, KRAS (recurrent gains); and FHIT, WWOX, CDKN2A/B, SMAD4, RUNX1 (recurrent losses). There was a 40-fold variation in CNA count across all cases. Tumors with the lowest and highest quartile CNA count had significantly better overall survival (p = 0.032) and time to first recurrence (p = 0.010) compared to those with intermediate CNA counts. These associations persisted when controlling for other prognostic variables. Significance: SNP arrays facilitate the assessment of recurrent chromosomal gain and loss and allow high resolution, quantitative assessment of segmental aneuploidy (total CNA count). The non-monotonic association of segmental aneuploidy with survival has been described in other tumors. The degree of aneuploidy is a promising prognostic biomarker in a potentially curable form of EAC. © 2014 Davison et al

Protocol for a home-based integrated physical therapy program to reduce falls and improve mobility in people with Parkinson’s disease

Background The high incidence of falls associated with Parkinson&rsquo;s disease (PD) increases the risk of injuries and immobility and compromises quality of life. Although falls education and strengthening programs have shown some benefit in healthy older people, the ability of physical therapy interventions in home settings to reduce falls and improve mobility in people with Parkinson&rsquo;s has not been convincingly demonstrated.Methods/design 180 community living people with PD will be randomly allocated to receive either a home-based integrated rehabilitation program (progressive resistance strength training, movement strategy training and falls education) or a home-based life skills program (control intervention). Both programs comprise one hour of treatment and one hour of structured homework per week over six weeks of home therapy. Blinded assessments occurring before therapy commences, the week after completion of therapy and 12 months following intervention will establish both the immediate and long-term benefits of home-based rehabilitation. The number of falls, number of repeat falls, falls rate and time to first fall will be the primary measures used to quantify outcome. The economic costs associated with injurious falls, and the costs of running the integrated rehabilitation program from a health system perspective will be established. The effects of intervention on motor and global disability and on quality of life will also be examined. Discussion This study will provide new evidence on the outcomes and cost effectiveness of home-based movement rehabilitation programs for people living with PD

The CogBIAS longitudinal study protocol: cognitive and genetic factors influencing psychological functioning in adolescence.

BACKGROUND: Optimal psychological development is dependent upon a complex interplay between individual and situational factors. Investigating the development of these factors in adolescence will help to improve understanding of emotional vulnerability and resilience. The CogBIAS longitudinal study (CogBIAS-L-S) aims to combine cognitive and genetic approaches to investigate risk and protective factors associated with the development of mood and impulsivity-related outcomes in an adolescent sample. METHODS: CogBIAS-L-S is a three-wave longitudinal study of typically developing adolescents conducted over 4 years, with data collection at age 12, 14 and 16. At each wave participants will undergo multiple assessments including a range of selective cognitive processing tasks (e.g. attention bias, interpretation bias, memory bias) and psychological self-report measures (e.g. anxiety, depression, resilience). Saliva samples will also be collected at the baseline assessment for genetic analyses. Multilevel statistical analyses will be performed to investigate the developmental trajectory of cognitive biases on psychological functioning, as well as the influence of genetic moderation on these relationships. DISCUSSION: CogBIAS-L-S represents the first longitudinal study to assess multiple cognitive biases across adolescent development and the largest study of its kind to collect genetic data. It therefore provides a unique opportunity to understand how genes and the environment influence the development and maintenance of cognitive biases and provide insight into risk and protective factors that may be key targets for intervention.This work was supported by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013)/ERC grant agreement no: [324176]

Correlates of protection against symptomatic and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection

The global supply of COVID-19 vaccines remains limited. An understanding of the immune response that is predictive of protection could facilitate rapid licensure of new vaccines. Data from a randomized efficacy trial of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine in the United Kingdom was analyzed to determine the antibody levels associated with protection against SARS-CoV-2. Binding and neutralizing antibodies at 28 days after the second dose were measured in infected and noninfected vaccine recipients. Higher levels of all immune markers were correlated with a reduced risk of symptomatic infection. A vaccine efficacy of 80% against symptomatic infection with majority Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant of SARS-CoV-2 was achieved with 264 (95% CI: 108, 806) binding antibody units (BAU)/ml: and 506 (95% CI: 135, not computed (beyond data range) (NC)) BAU/ml for anti-spike and anti-RBD antibodies, and 26 (95% CI: NC, NC) international unit (IU)/ml and 247 (95% CI: 101, NC) normalized neutralization titers (NF50) for pseudovirus and live-virus neutralization, respectively. Immune markers were not correlated with asymptomatic infections at the 5% significance level. These data can be used to bridge to new populations using validated assays, and allow extrapolation of efficacy estimates to new COVID-19 vaccines

MR fluoroscopy in vascular and cardiac interventions (review)

Vascular and cardiac disease remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in developed and emerging countries. Vascular and cardiac interventions require extensive fluoroscopic guidance to navigate endovascular catheters. X-ray fluoroscopy is considered the current modality for real time imaging. It provides excellent spatial and temporal resolution, but is limited by exposure of patients and staff to ionizing radiation, poor soft tissue characterization and lack of quantitative physiologic information. MR fluoroscopy has been introduced with substantial progress during the last decade. Clinical and experimental studies performed under MR fluoroscopy have indicated the suitability of this modality for: delivery of ASD closure, aortic valves, and endovascular stents (aortic, carotid, iliac, renal arteries, inferior vena cava). It aids in performing ablation, creation of hepatic shunts and local delivery of therapies. Development of more MR compatible equipment and devices will widen the applications of MR-guided procedures. At post-intervention, MR imaging aids in assessing the efficacy of therapies, success of interventions. It also provides information on vascular flow and cardiac morphology, function, perfusion and viability. MR fluoroscopy has the potential to form the basis for minimally invasive image–guided surgeries that offer improved patient management and cost effectiveness