Vanishing refuge? Testing the forest refuge hypothesis in coastal East Africa using genome-wide sequence data for seven amphibians

High‐throughput sequencing data have greatly improved our ability to understand the processes that contribute to current biodiversity patterns. The “vanishing refuge” diversification model is speculated for the coastal forests of eastern Africa, whereby some taxa have persisted and diversified between forest refugia, while others have switched to becoming generalists also present in non‐forest habitats. Complex arrangements of geographical barriers (hydrology and topography) and ecological gradients between forest and non‐forest habitats may have further influenced the region's biodiversity, but elucidation of general diversification processes has been limited by lack of suitable data. Here, we explicitly test alternative diversification modes in the coastal forests using genome‐wide single nucleotide polymorphisms, mtDNA, spatial and environmental data for three forest (Arthroleptis xenodactyloides, Leptopelis flavomaculatus and Afrixalus sylvaticus) and four generalist (Afrixalus fornasini, A. delicatus, Leptopelis concolor, L. argenteus) amphibians. Multiple analyses provide insight about divergence times, spatial population structure, dispersal barriers, environmental stability and demographic history. We reveal highly congruent intra‐specific diversity and population structure across taxa, with most divergences occurring during the late Pliocene and Pleistocene. Although stability models support the existence of some forest refugia, dispersal barriers and demographic models point toward idiosyncratic diversification modes across taxa. We identify a consistent role for riverine barriers in the diversification of generalist taxa, but mechanisms of diversification are more complex for forest taxa and potentially include topographical barriers, forest refugia and ecological gradients. Our work demonstrates the complexity of diversification processes in this region, which vary between forest and generalist taxa, but also for ecologically similar species with shared population boundaries

Simulated changes in vegetation distribution, land carbon storage, and atmospheric CO2 in response to a collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation

Measurements on glacial ice show that atmospheric CO2 varied by 20ppmv with large iceberg discharges into the North Atlantic (NA) and themost prominent Dansgaard/ Oeschger (D/O) climate fluctuations. CO2variations during less pronounced D/O events were smaller than a fewppm. The D/O fluctuations have been linked to changes in the NAThermohaline Circulation (THC). Here, we analyse how abrupt changes inthe NA THC affect the terrestrial carbon cycle by forcing theLund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model with climateperturbations from freshwater experiments with the ECBILT-CLIOgeneral circulation model. Changes in the marine carbon cycle are notaddressed. Modelled NA THC collapsed and recovered after about amillennium in response to prescribed freshwater forcing. The initialcooling of several Kelvin over Eurasia causes a reduction ofextant boreal and temperate forests and a decrease in carbon storage inhigh northern latitudes, whereas improved growing conditions andslower soil decomposition rates lead to enhanced storage inmid-latitudes. The magnitude and evolution of global terrestrialcarbon storage in response to abrupt THC changes depends sensitivelyon the initial climate conditions. Terrestrial storage varies between-67 and +50 PgC for arange of experiments that start at different times during the last21,000 years. Simulated peak-to-peak differences in atmospheric CO2and d13C are between {6 and 18 ppmv} and $0.18$ and $0.30$~\mypermil and compatible with the ice core CO2 record