11 research outputs found
Can intra-seasonal wind stress forcing strongly affect spring predictability barrier for ENSO in Zebiak–Cane model?
Causes and Predictability of the Negative Indian Ocean Dipole and Its Impact on La Niña During 2016
Unusually warm Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures help to arrest development of El Niño in 2014
Seasonal ENSO phase locking in the Kiel Climate Model: The importance of the equatorial cold sea surface temperature bias
An Atlantic-driven rapid circulation change in the North Pacific Ocean during the late 1990s
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Impacts of Atlantic multidecadal variability on the tropical Pacific: a multi-model study
Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) has been linked to the observed slowdown of global warming over 1998-2012 through its impact on the tropical Pacific. Given the global importance of tropical Pacific variability, better understanding this Atlantic-Pacific teleconnection is key for improving climate predictions, but the robustness and strength of this link are uncertain. Analyzing a multi-model set of sensitivity experiments, we find that models differ by a factor of 10 in simulating the amplitude of the Equatorial Pacific cooling response to observed AMV warming. The inter-model spread is mainly driven by different amounts of moist static energy injection from the tropical Atlantic surface into the upper troposphere. We reduce this inter-model uncertainty by analytically correcting models for their mean precipitation biases and we quantify that, following an observed 0.26°C AMV warming, the equatorial Pacific cools by 0.11°C with an inter-model standard deviation of 0.03°C