Recapture or precapture? Fallibility of standard capture-recapture methods in the presence of referrals between sources.

Capture-recapture methods, largely developed in ecology, are now commonly used in epidemiology to adjust for incomplete registries and to estimate the size of difficult-to-reach populations such as problem drug users. Overlapping lists of individuals in the target population, taken from administrative data sources, are considered analogous to overlapping "captures" of animals. Log-linear models, incorporating interaction terms to account for dependencies between sources, are used to predict the number of unobserved individuals and, hence, the total population size. A standard assumption to ensure parameter identifiability is that the highest-order interaction term is 0. We demonstrate that, when individuals are referred directly between sources, this assumption will often be violated, and the standard modeling approach may lead to seriously biased estimates. We refer to such individuals as having been "precaptured," rather than truly recaptured. Although sometimes an alternative identifiable log-linear model could accommodate the referral structure, this will not always be the case. Further, multiple plausible models may fit the data equally well but provide widely varying estimates of the population size. We demonstrate an alternative modeling approach, based on an interpretable parameterization and driven by careful consideration of the relationships between the sources, and we make recommendations for capture-recapture in practice

When Is Visual Information Used to Control Locomotion When Descending a Kerb?

YesBackground: Descending kerbs during locomotion involves the regulation of appropriate foot placement before the kerb-edge and foot clearance over it. It also involves the modulation of gait output to ensure the body-mass is safely and smoothly lowered to the new level. Previous research has shown that vision is used in such adaptive gait tasks for feedforward planning, with vision from the lower visual field (lvf) used for online updating. The present study determined when lvf information is used to control/update locomotion when stepping from a kerb. Methodology/Principal Findings: 12 young adults stepped down a kerb during ongoing gait. Force sensitive resistors (attached to participants' feet) interfaced with an high-speed PDLC 'smart glass' sheet, allowed the lvf to be unpredictably occluded at either heel-contact of the penultimate or final step before the kerb-edge up to contact with the lower level. Analysis focussed on determining changes in foot placement distance before the kerb-edge, clearance over it, and in kinematic measures of the step down. Lvf occlusion from the instant of final step contact had no significant effect on any dependant variable (p>0.09). Occlusion of the lvf from the instant of penultimate step contact had a significant effect on foot clearance and on several kinematic measures, with findings consistent with participants becoming uncertain regarding relative horizontal location of the kerb-edge. Conclusion/Significance: These findings suggest concurrent feedback of the lower limb, kerb-edge, and/or floor area immediately in front/below the kerb is not used when stepping from a kerb during ongoing gait. Instead heel-clearance and pre-landing-kinematic parameters are determined/planned using lvf information acquired in the penultimate step during the approach to the kerb-edge, with information related to foot placement before the kerb-edge being the most salient

Divergence in Dialogue

Copyright: 2014 Healey et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.This work was supported by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC; http://www.esrc.ac.uk/) through the DynDial project (Dynamics of Conversational Dialogue, RES-062-23-0962) and the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC; http://www.epsrc.ac.uk/) through the RISER project (Robust Incremental Semantic Resources for Dialogue, EP/J010383/1). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Study protocol: evaluation of a parenting and stress management programme: a randomised controlled trial of Triple P discussion groups and stress control

<br>Background: Children displaying psychosocial problems are at an increased risk of negative developmental outcomes. Parenting practices are closely linked with child development and behaviour, and parenting programmes have been recommended in the treatment of child psychosocial problems. However, parental mental health also needs to be addressed when delivering parenting programmes as it is linked with parenting practices, child outcomes, and treatment outcomes of parenting programmes. This paper describes the protocol of a study examining the effects of a combined intervention of a parenting programme and a cognitive behavioural intervention for mental health problems.</br> <br>Methods: The effects of a combined intervention of Triple P Discussion Groups and Stress Control will be examined using a randomised controlled trial design. Parents with a child aged 3?8?years will be recruited to take part in the study. After obtaining informed consent and pre-intervention measures, participants will be randomly assigned to either an intervention or a waitlist condition. The two primary outcomes for this study are change in dysfunctional/ineffective parenting practices and change in symptoms of depression, anxiety, and stress. Secondary outcomes are child behaviour problems, parenting experiences, parental self-efficacy, family relationships, and positive parental mental health. Demographic information, participant satisfaction with the intervention, and treatment fidelity data will also be collected. Data will be collected at pre-intervention, mid-intervention, post-intervention, and 3-month follow-up.</br> <br>Discussion: The aim of this paper is to describe the study protocol of a randomised controlled trial evaluating the effects of a combined intervention of Triple P Discussion Groups and Stress Control in comparison to a waitlist condition. This study is important because it will provide evidence about the effects of this combined intervention for parents with 3?8?year old children. The results of the study could be used to inform policy about parenting support and support for parents with mental health problems. Trial registration ClinicalTrial.gov: NCT01777724, UTN: U1111-1137-1053.</br&gt

Estimating the prevalence of problem drug use from drug-related mortality data.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Indirect estimation methods are required for estimating the size of populations where only a proportion of individuals are observed directly, such as problem drug users (PDUs). Capture-recapture and multiplier methods are widely used, but have been criticized as subject to bias. We propose a new approach to estimating prevalence of PDU from numbers of fatal drug-related poisonings (fDRPs) using linked databases, addressing the key limitations of simplistic 'mortality multipliers'. METHODS: Our approach requires linkage of data on a large cohort of known PDUs to mortality registers and summary information concerning additional fDRPs observed outside this cohort. We model fDRP rates among the cohort and assume that rates in unobserved PDUs are equal to rates in the cohort during periods out of treatment. Prevalence is estimated in a Bayesian statistical framework, in which we simultaneously fit regression models to fDRP rates and prevalence, allowing both to vary by demographic factors and the former also by treatment status. RESULTS: We report a case study analysis, estimating the prevalence of opioid dependence in England in 2008/09, by gender, age group and geographical region. Overall prevalence was estimated as 0.82% (95% credible interval = 0.74-0.94%) of 15-64-year-olds, which is similar to a published estimate based on capture-recapture analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Our modelling approach estimates prevalence from drug-related mortality data, while addressing the main limitations of simplistic multipliers. This offers an alternative approach for the common situation where available data sources do not meet the strong assumptions required for valid capture-recapture estimation. In a case study analysis, prevalence estimates based on our approach were surprisingly similar to existing capture-recapture estimates but, we argue, are based on a much more objective and justifiable modelling approach

Analysis of human mini-exome sequencing data from Genetic Analysis Workshop 17 using a Bayesian hierarchical mixture model

Next-generation sequencing technologies are rapidly changing the field of genetic epidemiology and enabling exploration of the full allele frequency spectrum underlying complex diseases. Although sequencing technologies have shifted our focus toward rare genetic variants, statistical methods traditionally used in genetic association studies are inadequate for estimating effects of low minor allele frequency variants. Four our study we use the Genetic Analysis Workshop 17 data from 697 unrelated individuals (genotypes for 24,487 autosomal variants from 3,205 genes). We apply a Bayesian hierarchical mixture model to identify genes associated with a simulated binary phenotype using a transformed genotype design matrix weighted by allele frequencies. A Metropolis Hasting algorithm is used to jointly sample each indicator variable and additive genetic effect pair from its conditional posterior distribution, and remaining parameters are sampled by Gibbs sampling. This method identified 58 genes with a posterior probability greater than 0.8 for being associated with the phenotype. One of these 58 genes, PIK3C2B was correctly identified as being associated with affected status based on the simulation process. This project demonstrates the utility of Bayesian hierarchical mixture models using a transformed genotype matrix to detect genes containing rare and common variants associated with a binary phenotype

DNA Suspension Arrays: Silencing Discrete Artifacts for High-Sensitivity Applications

Detection of low frequency single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) has important implications in early screening for tumorgenesis, genetic disorders and pathogen drug resistance. Nucleic acid arrays are a powerful tool for genome-scale SNP analysis, but detection of low-frequency SNPs in a mixed population on an array is problematic. We demonstrate a model assay for HIV-1 drug resistance mutations, wherein ligase discrimination products are collected on a suspension array. In developing this system, we discovered that signal from multiple polymorphisms was obscured by two discrete hybridization artifacts. Specifically: 1) tethering of unligated probes on the template DNA elicited false signal and 2) unpredictable probe secondary structures impaired probe capture and suppressed legitimate signal from the array. Two sets of oligonucleotides were used to disrupt these structures; one to displace unligated reporter labels from the bead-bound species and another to occupy sequences which interfered with array hybridization. This artifact silencing system resulted in a mean 21-fold increased sensitivity for 29 minority variants of 17 codons in our model assay for mutations most commonly associated with HIV-1 drug resistance. Furthermore, since the artifacts we characterized are not unique to our system, their specific inhibition might improve the quality of data from solid-state microarrays as well as from the growing number of multiple analyte suspension arrays relying on sequence-specific nucleic acid target capture

Differential cargo mobilisation within Weibel-Palade bodies after transient fusion with the plasma membrane.

Inflammatory chemokines can be selectively released from Weibel-Palade bodies (WPBs) during kiss-and-run exocytosis. Such selectivity may arise from molecular size filtering by the fusion pore, however differential intra-WPB cargo re-mobilisation following fusion-induced structural changes within the WPB may also contribute to this process. To determine whether WPB cargo molecules are differentially re-mobilised, we applied FRAP to residual post-fusion WPB structures formed after transient exocytosis in which some or all of the fluorescent cargo was retained. Transient fusion resulted in WPB collapse from a rod to a spheroid shape accompanied by substantial swelling (>2 times by surface area) and membrane mixing between the WPB and plasma membranes. Post-fusion WPBs supported cumulative WPB exocytosis. To quantify diffusion inside rounded organelles we developed a method of FRAP analysis based on image moments. FRAP analysis showed that von Willebrand factor-EGFP (VWF-EGFP) and the VWF-propolypeptide-EGFP (Pro-EGFP) were immobile in post-fusion WPBs. Because Eotaxin-3-EGFP and ssEGFP (small soluble cargo proteins) were largely depleted from post-fusion WPBs, we studied these molecules in cells preincubated in the weak base NH4Cl which caused WPB alkalinisation and rounding similar to that produced by plasma membrane fusion. In these cells we found a dramatic increase in mobilities of Eotaxin-3-EGFP and ssEGFP that exceeded the resolution of our method (∼ 2.4 µm2/s mean). In contrast, the membrane mobilities of EGFP-CD63 and EGFP-Rab27A in post-fusion WPBs were unchanged, while P-selectin-EGFP acquired mobility. Our data suggest that selective re-mobilisation of chemokines during transient fusion contributes to selective chemokine secretion during transient WPB exocytosis. Selective secretion provides a mechanism to regulate intravascular inflammatory processes with reduced risk of thrombosis

Developing an intervention to facilitate family communication about inherited genetic conditions, and training genetic counsellors in its delivery.

Many families experience difficulty in talking about an inherited genetic condition that affects one or more of them. There have now been a number of studies identifying the issues in detail, however few have developed interventions to assist families. The SPRinG collaborative have used the UK Medical Research Council's guidance on Developing and Evaluating Complex Interventions, to work with families and genetic counsellors (GCs) to co-design a psycho-educational intervention to facilitate family communication and promote better coping and adaptation to living with an inherited genetic condition for parents and their children (<18 years). The intervention is modelled on multi-family discussion groups (MFDGs) used in psychiatric settings. The MFDG was developed and tested over three phases. First focus groups with parents, young people, children and health professionals discussed whether MFDG was acceptable and proposed a suitable design. Using evidence and focus group data, the intervention and a training manual were developed and three GCs were trained in its delivery. Finally, a prototype MFDG was led by a family therapist and co-facilitated by the three GCs. Data analysis showed that families attending the focus groups and intervention thought MFDG highly beneficial, and the pilot sessions had a significant impact on their family' functioning. We also demonstrated that it is possible to train GCs to deliver the MFDG intervention. Further studies are now required to test the feasibility of undertaking a definitive randomised controlled trial to evaluate its effectiveness in improving family outcomes before implementing into genetic counselling practice.The National Institute of Health Research funded the study but any views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the Authority. Funded by NIHR reference number: RP-DG-1211-10015