Conditions during adulthood affect cohort-specific reproductive success in an Arctic-nesting goose population

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Variation in fitness between individuals in populations may be attributed to differing environmental conditions experienced among birth (or hatch) years (i.e., between cohorts). In this study, we tested whether cohort fitness could also be explained by environmental conditions experienced in years post-hatch, using 736 lifelong resighting histories of Greenland white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons flavirostris) marked in their first winter. Specifically, we tested whether variation in age at first successful reproduction, the size of the first successful brood and the proportion of successful breeders by cohort was explained by environmental conditions experienced on breeding areas in west Greenland during hatch year, those in adulthood prior to successful reproduction and those in the year of successful reproduction, using North Atlantic Oscillation indices as proxies for environmental conditions during these periods. Fifty-nine (8%) of all marked birds reproduced successfully (i.e., were observed on wintering areas with young) only once in their lifetime and 15 (2%) reproduced successfully twice or thrice. Variation in age at first successful reproduction was explained by the environmental conditions experienced during adulthood in the years prior to successful reproduction. Birds bred earliest (mean age 4) when environmental conditions were 'good' prior to the year of successful reproduction. Conversely, birds successfully reproduced at older ages (mean age 7) if they experienced adverse conditions prior to the year of successful reproduction. Hatch year conditions and an interaction between those experienced prior to and during the year of successful reproduction explained less (marginally significant) variation in age at first successful reproduction. Environmental conditions did not explain variation in the size of the first successful brood or the proportion of successful breeders. These findings show that conditions during adulthood prior to the year of successful reproduction are most important in determining the age at first successful reproduction in Greenland white-fronted geese. Very few birds bred successfully at all (most only once), which suggests that May environmental conditions on breeding areas have cohort effects that influence lifetime (and not just annual) reproductive success.This research was funded through a joint PhD studentship from the Wildfowl & Wetlands Trust and the University of Exeter, and undertaken by MD Weegman. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Tracking nitrogen losses in a greenhouse crop rotation experiment in North China using the EU-Rotate_N simulation model

Vegetable production in China is associated with high inputs of nitrogen, posing a risk of losses to the environment. Organic matter mineralisation is a considerable source of nitrogen (N) which is hard to quantify. In a two-year greenhouse cucumber experiment with different N treatments in North China, non-observed pathways of the N cycle were estimated using the EU-Rotate_N simulation model. EU-Rotate_N was calibrated against crop dry matter and soil moisture data to predict crop N uptake, soil mineral N contents, N mineralisation and N loss. Crop N uptake (Modelling Efficiencies (ME) between 0.80 and 0.92) and soil mineral N contents in different soil layers (ME between 0.24 and 0.74) were satisfactorily simulated by the model for all N treatments except for the traditional N management. The model predicted high N mineralisation rates and N leaching losses, suggesting that previously published estimates of N leaching for these production systems strongly underestimated the mineralisation of N from organic matter

Integrated population modelling reveals a perceived source to be a cryptic sink

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Demographic links among fragmented populations are commonly studied as source-sink dynamics, whereby source populations exhibit net recruitment and net emigration, while sinks suffer net mortality but enjoy net immigration. It is commonly assumed that large, persistent aggregations of individuals must be sources, but this ignores the possibility that they are sinks instead, buoyed demographically by immigration. We tested this assumption using Bayesian integrated population modelling of Greenland white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons flavirostris) at their largest wintering site (Wexford, Ireland), combining capture-mark-recapture, census and recruitment data collected from 1982 to 2010. Management for this subspecies occurs largely on wintering areas; thus, study of source-sink dynamics of discrete regular wintering units provides unprecedented insights into population regulation and enables identification of likely processes influencing population dynamics at Wexford and among 70 other Greenland white-fronted goose wintering subpopulations. Using results from integrated population modelling, we parameterized an age-structured population projection matrix to determine the contribution of movement rates (emigration and immigration), recruitment and mortality to the dynamics of the Wexford subpopulation. Survival estimates for juvenile and adult birds at Wexford and adult birds elsewhere fluctuated over the 29-year study period, but were not identifiably different. However, per capita recruitment rates at Wexford in later years (post-1995) were identifiably lower than in earlier years (pre-1995). The observed persistence of the Wexford subpopulation was only possible with high rates of immigration, which exceeded emigration in each year. Thus, despite its apparent stability, Wexford has functioned as a sink over the entire study period. These results demonstrate that even large subpopulations can potentially be sinks, and that movement dynamics (e.g. immigration) among winters can dramatically obscure key processes driving subpopulation size. Further, novel population models which integrate capture-mark-recapture, census and recruitment data are essential to correctly ascribing source-sink status and accurately informing development of site-safeguard networks.This research was funded through a joint PhD studentship to M.D.W. from the Wildfowl & Wetlands Trust and the University of Exeter, and through a NERC grant (NE/L007770/1) to D.J.

Should I stay or should I go? Fitness costs and benefits of prolonged parent-offspring and sibling-sibling associations in an Arctic-nesting goose population.

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Theory predicts persistence of long-term family relationships in vertebrates will occur until perceived fitness costs exceed benefits to either parents or offspring. We examined whether increased breeding probability and survival were associated with prolonged parent-offspring and sibling-sibling relationships in a long-lived Arctic migrant herbivore, the Greenland white-fronted goose (Anser albifrons flavirostris). Although offspring associated with parents for 1-13 years, 79 % of these associations lasted two or less years. Only 65 (9.9 %) of the 656 marked offspring bred once in their lifetime, and just 16 (2.4 %) bred twice or more. The probability of birds with siblings breeding successfully in a subsequent year was credibly greater than that of independent birds at ages 5, 6, and 7. Survival of offspring with parents was credibly greater than that of independent/nonbreeder birds at all possible ages (i.e., ages 2-7+). A cost-benefit matrix model utilizing breeding and survival probabilities showed that staying with family groups was favored over leaving until age 3, after which there were no credible differences between staying and leaving strategies until the oldest ages, when leaving family groups was favored. Thus, most birds in this study either departed family groups early (e.g., at age 2, when the "stay" strategy was favored) or as predicted by our cost-benefit model (i.e., at age 3). Although extended family associations are a feature of this population, we contend that the survival benefits are not sufficient enough to yield clear fitness benefits, and associations only persist because parents and offspring mutually benefit from their persistence.This research was funded through a joint PhD studentship from the Wildfowl & Wetlands Trust and the University of Exeter undertaken by MDW

Making optical atomic clocks more stable with 10−1610^{-16} level laser stabilization

The superb precision of an atomic clock is derived from its stability. Atomic clocks based on optical (rather than microwave) frequencies are attractive because of their potential for high stability, which scales with operational frequency. Nevertheless, optical clocks have not yet realized this vast potential, due in large part to limitations of the laser used to excite the atomic resonance. To address this problem, we demonstrate a cavity-stabilized laser system with a reduced thermal noise floor, exhibiting a fractional frequency instability of $2 \times 10^{-16}$. We use this laser as a stable optical source in a Yb optical lattice clock to resolve an ultranarrow 1 Hz transition linewidth. With the stable laser source and the signal to noise ratio (S/N) afforded by the Yb optical clock, we dramatically reduce key stability limitations of the clock, and make measurements consistent with a clock instability of $5 \times 10^{-16} / \sqrt{\tau}$

Spatiotemporal scales of larval dispersal and connectivity among oil and gas structures in the North Sea

The ecological role of offshore man-made infrastructure is of growing international interest. By 2030, globally more than 7500 oil and gas platforms could be removed, many of which now host mature hard substrate ecosystems formed by sessile benthic species including sponges, corals and mussels. We investigated the spatiotemporal scales of generalised species dispersal and connectivity among oil and gas structures in the North Sea using strategically designed 3D advective passive particle tracking experiments forced by high resolution (1.8 km, hourly) velocity fields including tide-, density- and wind-driven currents. Trajectories from 2 seasonal releases during mixed winter (February) and stratified summer (July) conditions of 2010 were analysed for a variety of pelagic larval durations (PLDs) spanning 2 to 28 d. Particles dispersed on average 32 km away from their origins after just 5 d, 67 km after 15 d, and 109 km after 28 d, with considerable spatial variability and limited seasonal variations. Short (2 d) PLDs generated highly connected networks over smaller spatial scales, while longer PLDs (28 d) generated less fragmented networks covering a much larger area but with fewer connections. Tidally driven dispersal was isolated using a new method based on the harmonic analysis of the velocity fields: the resulting maximum linear dispersal distances varied from ~4 km in the northern North Sea to ~8 km in the southern North Sea. The present study provides baseline spatiotemporal scales of dispersal and connectivity patterns and optimized relocatable methods to assess connectivity in tidally active shelf seas

Timeliness of Clinic Attendance is a good predictor of Virological Response and Resistance to Antiretroviral drugs in HIV-infected patients

Ensuring long-term adherence to therapy is essential for the success of HIV treatment. As access to viral load monitoring and genotyping is poor in resource-limited settings, a simple tool to monitor adherence is needed. We assessed the relationship between an indicator based on timeliness of clinic attendance and virological response and HIV drug resistance

Climate change, climatic variation and extreme biological responses

Extreme climatic events could be major drivers of biodiversity change, but it is unclear whether extreme biological changes are (i) individualistic (species- or group-specific), (ii) commonly associated with unusual climatic events and/or (iii) important determinants of long-term population trends. Using population time series for 238 widespread species (207 Lepidoptera and 31 birds) in England since 1968, we found that population 'crashes' (outliers in terms of species' year-to-year population changes) were 46% more frequent than population 'explosions'. (i) Every year, at least three species experienced extreme changes in population size, and in 41 of the 44 years considered, some species experienced population crashes while others simultaneously experienced population explosions. This suggests that, even within the same broad taxonomic groups, species are exhibiting individualistic dynamics, most probably driven by their responses to different, short-term events associated with climatic variability. (ii) Six out of 44 years showed a significant excess of species experiencing extreme population changes (5 years for Lepidoptera, 1 for birds). These 'consensus years' were associated with climatically extreme years, consistent with a link between extreme population responses and climatic variability, although not all climatically extreme years generated excess numbers of extreme population responses. (iii) Links between extreme population changes and long-term population trends were absent in Lepidoptera and modest (but significant) in birds. We conclude that extreme biological responses are individualistic, in the sense that the extreme population changes of most species are taking place in different years, and that long-term trends of widespread species have not, to date, been dominated by these extreme changes.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'

Short and long term retention in antiretroviral care in health facilities in rural Malawi and Zimbabwe.

Despite the successful scale-up of ART services over the past years, long term retention in ART care remains a major challenge, especially in high HIV prevalence and resource-limited settings. This study analysed the short (<12 months) and long (>12 months) term retention on ART in two ART programmes in Malawi (Thyolo district) and Zimbabwe (Buhera district)

Non-universal minimal Z' models: present bounds and early LHC reach

We consider non-universal 'minimal' Z' models, whose additional U(1) charge is a non-anomalous linear combination of the weak hypercharge Y, the baryon number B and the partial lepton numbers (L_e, L_mu, L_tau), with no exotic fermions beyond three standard families with right-handed neutrinos. We show that the observed pattern of neutrino masses and mixing can be fully reproduced by a gauge-invariant renormalizable Lagrangian, and flavor-changing neutral currents in the charged lepton sector are suppressed by a GIM mechanism. We then discuss the phenomenology of some benchmark models. The electrophilic B-3L_e model is significantly constrained by electroweak precision tests, but still allows to fit the hint of an excess observed by CDF in dielectrons but not in dimuons. The muonphilic B-3L_mu model is very mildly constrained by electroweak precision tests, so that even the very early phase of the LHC can explore significant areas of parameter space. We also discuss the hadrophobic L_mu-L_tau model, which has recently attracted interest in connection with some puzzling features of cosmic ray spectra.Comment: 29 pages, 13 figure