Fitting Parton Distribution Data with Multiplicative Normalization Uncertainties

We consider the generic problem of performing a global fit to many independent data sets each with a different overall multiplicative normalization uncertainty. We show that the methods in common use to treat multiplicative uncertainties lead to systematic biases. We develop a method which is unbiased, based on a self--consistent iterative procedure. We demonstrate the use of this method by applying it to the determination of parton distribution functions with the NNPDF methodology, which uses a Monte Carlo method for uncertainty estimation.Comment: 33 pages, 5 figures: published versio

Meaningful characterisation of perturbative theoretical uncertainties

We consider the problem of assigning a meaningful degree of belief to uncertainty estimates of perturbative series. We analyse the assumptions which are implicit in the conventional estimates made using renormalisation scale variations. We then formulate a Bayesian model that, given equivalent initial hypotheses, allows one to characterise a perturbative theoretical uncertainty in a rigorous way in terms of a credibility interval for the remainder of the series. We compare its outcome to the conventional uncertainty estimates in the simple case of the calculation of QCD corrections to the e+e- -> hadrons process. We find comparable results, but with important conceptual differences. This work represents a first step in the direction of a more comprehensive and rigorous handling of theoretical uncertainties in perturbative calculations used in high energy phenomenology.Comment: 28 pages, 5 figures. Language modified in order to make it more 'bayesian'. No change in results. Version published in JHE

Theoretical Uncertainties in Electroweak Boson Production Cross Sections at 7, 10, and 14 TeV at the LHC

We present an updated study of the systematic errors in the measurements of the electroweak boson cross-sections at the LHC for various experimental cuts for a center of mass energy of 7, 10 and 14 TeV. The size of both electroweak and NNLO QCD contributions are estimated, together with the systematic error from the parton distributions. The effects of new versions of the MSTW, CTEQ, and NNPDF PDFs are considered.Comment: PDFLatex with JHEP3.cls. 22 pages, 43 figures. Version 2 adds the CT10W PDF set to analysis and updates the final systematic error table and conclusions, plus several citations and minor wording changes. Version 3 adds some references on electroweak and mixed QED/QCD corrections. Version 4 adds more references and acknowledgement

Bragg Grating Corrosion Sensor

Historically, corrosion has not been included in the calculation of the life expectancy of aircraft. It is well known how stress-corrosion cracking and corrosion fatigue can significantly reduce the life expectancy of structures. Therefore, it can be correctly assumed that some aircraft flying near their expected life might actually be flying well beyond their “safe life”. Furthermore, due to DoD present tight budget requirements, its is expected that some defense aircraft might not be retired at their original expected life but will be reconditioned to fly beyond that time. All of these considerations indicate that early detection, quantification and prevention of corrosion is of critical importance for military aircraft. This is particularly true for Navy aircraft which fly in the most corrosive environment of all services

Possible relationship between common genetic variation and white matter development in a pilot study of preterm infants

Background The consequences of preterm birth are a major public health concern with high rates of ensuing multisystem morbidity, and uncertain biological mechanisms. Common genetic variation may mediate vulnerability to the insult of prematurity and provide opportunities to predict and modify risk. Objective To gain novel biological and therapeutic insights from the integrated analysis of magnetic resonance imaging and genetic data, informed by prior knowledge. Methods We apply our previously validated pathway-based statistical method and a novel network-based method to discover sources of common genetic variation associated with imaging features indicative of structural brain damage. Results Lipid pathways were highly ranked by Pathways Sparse Reduced Rank Regression in a model examining the effect of prematurity, and PPAR (peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor) signaling was the highest ranked pathway once degree of prematurity was accounted for. Within the PPAR pathway, five genes were found by Graph Guided Group Lasso to be highly associated with the phenotype: aquaporin 7 (AQP7), malic enzyme 1, NADP(+)-dependent, cytosolic (ME1), perilipin 1 (PLIN1), solute carrier family 27 (fatty acid transporter), member 1 (SLC27A1), and acetyl-CoA acyltransferase 1 (ACAA1). Expression of four of these (ACAA1, AQP7, ME1, and SLC27A1) is controlled by a common transcription factor, early growth response 4 (EGR-4). Conclusions This suggests an important role for lipid pathways in influencing development of white matter in preterm infants, and in particular a significant role for interindividual genetic variation in PPAR signaling

W boson production at hadron colliders: the lepton charge asymmetry in NNLO QCD

We consider the production of W bosons in hadron collisions, and the subsequent leptonic decay W->lnu_l. We study the asymmetry between the rapidity distributions of the charged leptons, and we present its computation up to the next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO) in QCD perturbation theory. Our calculation includes the dependence on the lepton kinematical cuts that are necessarily applied to select W-> lnu_l events in actual experimental analyses at hadron colliders. We illustrate the main differences between the W and lepton charge asymmetry, and we discuss their physical origin and the effect of the QCD radiative corrections. We show detailed numerical results on the charge asymmetry in ppbar collisions at the Tevatron, and we discuss the comparison with some of the available data. Some illustrative results on the lepton charge asymmetry in pp collisions at LHC energies are presented.Comment: 37 pages, 21 figure

On direct measurement of the W production charge asymmetry at the LHC

The prospects for making a direct measurement of the W production charge asymmetry at the LHC are discussed. A modification to the method used at the Tevatron is proposed for measurements at the LHC. The expected sensitivity for such a measurement to parton distribution functions is compared to that for a measurement of the lepton charge asymmetry. The direct measurement approach is found to be less useful for placing constraints on parton distribution functions at the LHC than a measurement of the lepton charge asymmetry.Comment: 18 pages, 10 figures, v2: references and keywords updated v3: Additional paragraph discussing inclusion of W asymmetry in global fits adde

Extinction times in the subcritical stochastic SIS logistic epidemic

Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights into the near-critical regime by considering the stochastic SIS logistic epidemic, a well-known birth-and-death chain used to model the spread of an epidemic within a population of a given size $N$. We study the behaviour of the process as the population size $N$ tends to infinity. Our results cover the entire subcritical regime, including the "barely subcritical" regime, where the recovery rate exceeds the infection rate by an amount that tends to 0 as $N \to \infty$ but more slowly than $N^{-1/2}$. We derive precise asymptotics for the distribution of the extinction time and the total number of cases throughout the subcritical regime, give a detailed description of the course of the epidemic, and compare to numerical results for a range of parameter values. We hypothesise that features of the course of the epidemic will be seen in a wide class of other epidemic models, and we use real data to provide some tentative and preliminary support for this theory.Comment: Revised; 34 pages; 6 figure