A Mathematical Framework for Estimating Pathogen Transmission Fitness and Inoculum Size Using Data from a Competitive Mixtures Animal Model

We present a method to measure the relative transmissibility (“transmission fitness”) of one strain of a pathogen compared to another. The model is applied to data from “competitive mixtures” experiments in which animals are co-infected with a mixture of two strains. We observe the mixture in each animal over time and over multiple generations of transmission. We use data from influenza experiments in ferrets to demonstrate the approach. Assessment of the relative transmissibility between two strains of influenza is important in at least three contexts: 1) Within the human population antigenically novel strains of influenza arise and compete for susceptible hosts. 2) During a pandemic event, a novel sub-type of influenza competes with the existing seasonal strain(s). The unfolding epidemiological dynamics are dependent upon both the population's susceptibility profile and the inherent transmissibility of the novel strain compared to the existing strain(s). 3) Neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs), while providing significant potential to reduce transmission of influenza, exert selective pressure on the virus and so promote the emergence of drug-resistant strains. Any adverse outcome due to selection and subsequent spread of an NAI-resistant strain is exquisitely dependent upon the transmission fitness of that strain. Measurement of the transmission fitness of two competing strains of influenza is thus of critical importance in determining the likely time-course and epidemiology of an influenza outbreak, or the potential impact of an intervention measure such as NAI distribution. The mathematical framework introduced here also provides an estimate for the size of the transmitted inoculum. We demonstrate the framework's behaviour using data from ferret transmission studies, and through simulation suggest how to optimise experimental design for assessment of transmissibility. The method introduced here for assessment of mixed transmission events has applicability beyond influenza, to other viral and bacterial pathogens

Identifying barriers to help seeking for non-motor symptoms in people with Parkinson’s disease

Non-motor Symptoms (NMS) of Parkinson’s disease (PD) have a significant impact on quality of life. Despite this many NMS remain unreported by patients and consequently untreated. The present study explored barriers to help-seeking using two theoretical frameworks, the Common Sense Model of illness and Theoretical Domains Framework. 20 Participants completed semi-structured interviews to explore symptom beliefs and help-seeking behaviour. Uncertainty about the relationship of NMS to PD and lack of clarity around treatments were common. Embarrassment and communication difficulties were common for potentially sensitive symptoms such as sexual dysfunction. Symptom perceptions and beliefs about help-seeking acted as barriers to reporting NMS

Detection of Resistance Mutations to Antivirals Oseltamivir and Zanamivir in Avian Influenza A Viruses Isolated from Wild Birds

The neuraminidase (NA) inhibitors oseltamivir and zanamivir are the first-line of defense against potentially fatal variants of influenza A pandemic strains. However, if resistant virus strains start to arise easily or at a high frequency, a new anti-influenza strategy will be necessary. This study aimed to investigate if and to what extent NA inhibitor–resistant mutants exist in the wild population of influenza A viruses that inhabit wild birds. NA sequences of all NA subtypes available from 5490 avian, 379 swine and 122 environmental isolates were extracted from NCBI databases. In addition, a dataset containing 230 virus isolates from mallard collected at Ottenby Bird Observatory (Öland, Sweden) was analyzed. Isolated NA RNA fragments from Ottenby were transformed to cDNA by RT-PCR, which was followed by sequencing. The analysis of genotypic profiles for NAs from both data sets in regard to antiviral resistance mutations was performed using bioinformatics tools. All 6221 sequences were scanned for oseltamivir- (I117V, E119V, D198N, I222V, H274Y, R292K, N294S and I314V) and zanamivir-related mutations (V116A, R118K, E119G/A/D, Q136K, D151E, R152K, R224K, E276D, R292K and R371K). Of the sequences from the avian NCBI dataset, 132 (2.4%) carried at least one, or in two cases even two and three, NA inhibitor resistance mutations. Swine and environmental isolates from the same data set had 18 (4.75%) and one (0.82%) mutant, respectively, with at least one mutation. The Ottenby sequences carried at least one mutation in 15 cases (6.52%). Therefore, resistant strains were more frequently found in Ottenby samples than in NCBI data sets. However, it is still uncertain if these mutations are the result of natural variations in the viruses or if they are induced by the selective pressure of xenobiotics (e.g., oseltamivir, zanamivir)

The recent establishment of North American H10 lineage influenza viruses in Australian wild waterfowl and the evolution of Australian avian influenza viruses

Influenza A H10N7 virus with a hemagglutinin gene of North American origin was detected in Australian chickens and poultry abattoir workers in New South Wales, Australia, in 2010 and in chickens in Queensland, Australia, on a mixed chicken and domestic duck farm in 2012. We investigated their genomic origins by sequencing full and partial genomes of H10 viruses isolated from wild aquatic birds and poultry in Australia and analyzed them with all available avian influenza virus sequences from Oceania and representative viruses from North America and Eurasia. Our analysis showed that the H10N7 viruses isolated from poultry were similar to those that have been circulating since 2009 in Australian aquatic birds and that their initial transmission into Australia occurred during 2007 and 2008. The H10 viruses that appear to have developed endemicity in Australian wild aquatic birds were derived from several viruses circulating in waterfowl along various flyways. Their hemagglutinin gene was derived from aquatic birds in the western states of the United States, whereas the neuraminidase was closely related to that from viruses previously detected in waterfowl in Japan. The remaining genes were derived from Eurasian avian influenza virus lineages. Our analysis of virological data spanning 40 years in Oceania indicates that the long-term evolutionary dynamics of avian influenza viruses in Australia may be determined by climatic changes. The introduction and long-term persistence of avian influenza virus lineages were observed during periods with increased rainfall, whereas bottlenecks and extinction were observed during phases of widespread decreases in rainfall. These results extend our understanding of factors affecting the dynamics of avian influenza and provide important considerations for surveillance and disease control strategies. © 2013, American Society for Microbiology

During the summer 2009 outbreak of "swine flu" in Scotland what respiratory pathogens were diagnosed as H1N1/2009?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>During the April-July 2009 outbreak of H1N1/2009 in scotland the West of Scotland Specialist Virology Centre (WoSSVC) in Glasgow tested > 16 000 clinical samples for H1N1/2009. Most were from patients clinically diagnosed with H1N1/2009. Out of these, 9% were positive. This study sought to determine what respiratory pathogens were misdiagnosed as cases of H1N1/2009 during this time.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We examined the results from 3247 samples which were sent to the laboratory during April-July 2009. All were from patients clinically diagnosed as having H1N1/2009 (based on accepted criteria) and all were given a full respiratory screen using real time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rtRT-PCR) assays.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In total, respiratory pathogens were detected in 27.9% (95% confidence interval, 26.3-29.5%) of the samples submitted. Numerous pathogens were detected, the most common of which were rhinovirus (8.9% (95% confidence interval, 7.9-9.9%)), parainfluenza 1 (1.9% (95% confidence interval, 1.4-2.4%)) and 3 (4.1% (95% confidence interval, 3.3-4.9%)), and adenovirus ((3.5% (95% confidence interval, 2.9-4.2%)).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study highlights the problems of using a clinical algorithm to detect H1N1/2009. Clinicians frequently misdiagnosed common respiratory pathogens as H1N1/2009 during the spring/summer outbreak in Scotland. Many undesirable consequences would have resulted, relating to treatment, infection control, and public health surveillance.</p

Effective, Robust Design of Community Mitigation for Pandemic Influenza: A Systematic Examination of Proposed US Guidance

BACKGROUND: The US government proposes pandemic influenza mitigation guidance that includes isolation and antiviral treatment of ill persons, voluntary household member quarantine and antiviral prophylaxis, social distancing of individuals, school closure, reduction of contacts at work, and prioritized vaccination. Is this the best strategy combination? Is choice of this strategy robust to pandemic uncertainties? What are critical enablers of community resilience? METHODS AND FINDINGS: We systematically simulate a broad range of pandemic scenarios and mitigation strategies using a networked, agent-based model of a community of explicit, multiply-overlapping social contact networks. We evaluate illness and societal burden for alterations in social networks, illness parameters, or intervention implementation. For a 1918-like pandemic, the best strategy minimizes illness to <1% of the population and combines network-based (e.g. school closure, social distancing of all with adults' contacts at work reduced), and case-based measures (e.g. antiviral treatment of the ill and prophylaxis of household members). We find choice of this best strategy robust to removal of enhanced transmission by the young, additional complexity in contact networks, and altered influenza natural history including extended viral shedding. Administration of age-group or randomly targeted 50% effective pre-pandemic vaccine with 7% population coverage (current US H5N1 vaccine stockpile) had minimal effect on outcomes. In order, mitigation success depends on rapid strategy implementation, high compliance, regional mitigation, and rigorous rescinding criteria; these are the critical enablers for community resilience. CONCLUSIONS: Systematic evaluation of feasible, recommended pandemic influenza interventions generally confirms the US community mitigation guidance yields best strategy choices for pandemic planning that are robust to a wide range of uncertainty. The best strategy combines network- and case-based interventions; network-based interventions are paramount. Because strategies must be applied rapidly, regionally, and stringently for greatest benefit, preparation and public education is required for long-lasting, high community compliance during a pandemic

Rapid Detection of the H275Y Oseltamivir Resistance Mutation in Influenza A/H1N1 2009 by Single Base Pair RT-PCR and High-Resolution Melting

Introduction: We aimed to design a real-time reverse-transcriptase-PCR (rRT-PCR), high-resolution melting (HRM) assay to detect the H275Y mutation that confers oseltamivir resistance in influenza A/H1N1 2009 viruses.Findings: A novel strategy of amplifying a single base pair, the relevant SNP at position 823 of the neuraminidase gene, was chosen to maintain specificity of the assay. Wildtype and mutant virus were differentiated when using known reference samples of cell-cultured virus. However, when dilutions of these reference samples were assayed, amplification of nonspecific primer-dimer was evident and affected the overall melting temperature (Tm) of the amplified products. Due to primer-dimer appearance at .30 cycles we found that if the cycle threshold (CT) for a dilution was .30, the HRM assay did not consistently discriminate mutant from wildtype. Where the CT was ,30 we noted an inverse relationship between CT and Tm and fitted quadratic curves allowed the discrimination of wildtype, mutant and 30:70 mutant:wildtype virus mixtures. We compared the CT values for a TaqMan H1N1 09 detection assay with those for the HRM assay using 59 clinical samples and demonstrated that samples with a TaqMan detection assay CT.32.98 would have an H275Y assay CT.30. Analysis of the TaqMan CT values for 609 consecutive clinical samples predicted that 207 (34%) of the samples would result in an HRM assay CT.30 and therefore not be amenable to the HRM assay.Conclusions: The use of single base pair PCR and HRM can be useful for specifically interrogating SNPs. When applied to H1N1 09, the constraints this placed on primer design resulted in amplification of primer-dimer products. The impact primer-dimer had on HRM curves was adjusted for by plotting Tm against CT. Although less sensitive than TaqMan assays, the HRM assay can rapidly, and at low cost, screen samples with moderate viral concentrations

Threat of an influenza pandemic: family physicians in the front line

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The chance of an influenza pandemic is real and clinicians should keep themselves informed about the rationale and science behind preventive and therapeutic principles relating to an (impending) influenza pandemic.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Vaccination is considered the best prevention in case of a pandemic threat and first choice to contain the impact of a pandemic. Pending the availability of an effective pandemic vaccine, antivirals are likely the only effective agents for prevention and treatment. When an influenza pandemic is impending, all interventions aim to prevent people becoming infected and to suppress replication and transmission of the virus as much as possible. Antivirals will be prescribed to patients with laboratory confirmed pre-pandemic influenza as well as to their contacts (post-exposure prophylaxis) which may delay development of or even prevent a pandemic. During a manifest influenza pandemic, however, there is large-scale spreading of the influenza virus. Therefore, preventive use of antivirals is less efficient to prevent transmission. Delaying the pandemic is then important in order to prevent exhausting public health resources and disruption of society. Thus, during a manifest pandemic everyone with influenza symptoms should receive antivirals as quickly as possible, regardless of virological confirmation. To ensure optimal effectiveness of antivirals and to minimize development of drug resistant viral strains, the use of antivirals for annual influenza should be restrictive. The crucial position of family physicians during an (impending) influenza pandemic necessitates the development of primary health care guidelines on this topic for all countries.</p> <p>Summary</p> <p>Family physicians will play a key role in assessing and treating victims of a new influenza virus, and in reassuring the worried well. We outline various possible interventions in the event of an impending and a manifest influenza pandemic, such as non-medial measures, prescription of antivirals, and vaccination, and emphasize the need for pandemic influenza preparedness.</p