Forecasting and Granger Modelling with Non-linear Dynamical Dependencies

Traditional linear methods for forecasting multivariate time series are not able to satisfactorily model the non-linear dependencies that may exist in non-Gaussian series. We build on the theory of learning vector-valued functions in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space and develop a method for learning prediction functions that accommodate such non-linearities. The method not only learns the predictive function but also the matrix-valued kernel underlying the function search space directly from the data. Our approach is based on learning multiple matrix-valued kernels, each of those composed of a set of input kernels and a set of output kernels learned in the cone of positive semi-definite matrices. In addition to superior predictive performance in the presence of strong non-linearities, our method also recovers the hidden dynamic relationships between the series and thus is a new alternative to existing graphical Granger techniques.Comment: Accepted for ECML-PKDD 201

The use of full-setting non-invasive ventilation in the home care of people with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis-motor neuron disease with end-stage respiratory muscle failure: a case series

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Little has been written about the use of non-invasive ventilation in the home care of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis-motor neuron disease patients with end-stage respiratory muscle failure. Nocturnal use of non-invasive ventilation has been reported to improve daytime blood gases but continuous non-invasive ventilation dependence has not been studied in this regard. There continues to be great variation by country, economics, physician interest and experience, local concepts of palliation, hospice requirements, and resources available for home care. We report a case series of home-based amyotrophic lateral sclerosis-motor neuron disease patients who refused tracheostomy and advanced non-invasive ventilation to full-setting, while maintaining normal alveolar ventilation and oxygenation in the course of the disease. Since this topic has been presented in only one center in the United States and nowhere else, it is appropriate to demonstrate that this can be done in other countries as well.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>We present here the cases of three Caucasian patients (a 51-year-old Caucasian man, a 45-year-old Caucasian woman and a 57-year-old Caucasian woman) with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis who developed continuous non-invasive ventilation dependence for 15 to 27 months without major complications and were able to maintain normal CO₂and pulse oxyhemoglobin saturation despite a non-measurable vital capacity. All patients were wheelchair-dependent and receiving riluzole 50 mg twice a day. Patient one developed mild-to-moderate bulbar-innervated muscle weakness. He refused tracheostomy but accepted percutaneous gastrostomy. Patient two had two lung infections, acute bronchitis and pneumonia, which were treated with antibiotics and cough assistance at home. Patient three had three chest infections (bronchitis and pneumonias) and asthmatic episodes treated with antibiotics, bronchodilators and cough assistance at home. All patients had normal speech while receiving positive pressure; they died suddenly and with normal oxygen saturation.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Although warned that prognosis was poor as vital capacity diminished, our patients survived without invasive airway tubes and despite non-measurable vital capacity. No patient opted for tracheostomy. Our patients demonstrate the feasibility of resorting to full-setting non-invasive management to prolong survival, optimizing wellness and management at home, and the chance to die peacefully.</p

Get screened: a pragmatic randomized controlled trial to increase mammography and colorectal cancer screening in a large, safety net practice

Abstract Background Most randomized controlled trials of interventions designed to promote cancer screening, particularly those targeting poor and minority patients, enroll selected patients. Relatively little is known about the benefits of these interventions among unselected patients. Methods/Design "Get Screened" is an American Cancer Society-sponsored randomized controlled trial designed to promote mammography and colorectal cancer screening in a primary care practice serving low-income patients. Eligible patients who are past due for mammography or colorectal cancer screening are entered into a tracking registry and randomly assigned to early or delayed intervention. This 6-month intervention is multimodal, involving patient prompts, clinician prompts, and outreach. At the time of the patient visit, eligible patients receive a low-literacy patient education tool. At the same time, clinicians receive a prompt to remind them to order the test and, when appropriate, a tool designed to simplify colorectal cancer screening decision-making. Patient outreach consists of personalized letters, automated telephone reminders, assistance with scheduling, and linkage of uninsured patients to the local National Breast and Cervical Cancer Early Detection program. Interventions are repeated for patients who fail to respond to early interventions. We will compare rates of screening between randomized groups, as well as planned secondary analyses of minority patients and uninsured patients. Data from the pilot phase show that this multimodal intervention triples rates of cancer screening (adjusted odds ratio 3.63; 95% CI 2.35 - 5.61). Discussion This study protocol is designed to assess a multimodal approach to promotion of breast and colorectal cancer screening among underserved patients. We hypothesize that a multimodal approach will significantly improve cancer screening rates. The trial was registered at Clinical Trials.gov NCT00818857http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78264/1/1472-6963-10-280.xmlhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78264/2/1472-6963-10-280.pdfPeer Reviewe

Potential role of levocarnitine supplementation for the treatment of chemotherapy-induced fatigue in non-anaemic cancer patients

Ifosfamide and cisplatin cause urinary loss of carnitine, which is a fundamental molecule for energy production in mammalian cells. We investigated whether restoration of the carnitine pool might improve chemotherapy-induced fatigue in non-anaemic cancer patients. Consecutive patients with low plasma carnitine levels who experienced fatigue during chemotherapy were considered eligible for study entry. Patients were excluded if they had anaemia or other conditions thought to be causing asthenia. Fatigue was assessed by the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Fatigue quality of life questionnaire. Treatment consisted of oral levocarnitine 4 g daily, for 7 days. Fifty patients were enrolled; chemotherapy was cisplatin-based in 44 patients and ifosfamide-based in six patients. In the whole group, baseline mean Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Fatigue score was 19.7 (±6.4; standard deviation) and the mean plasma carnitine value was 20.9 μM (±6.8; standard deviation). After 1 week, fatigue ameliorated in 45 patients and the mean Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Fatigue score was 34.9 (±5.4; standard deviation) (P<.001). All patients achieved normal plasma carnitine levels. Patients maintained the improved Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Fatigue score until the next cycle of chemotherapy. In selected patients, levocarnitine supplementation may be effective in alleviating chemotherapy-induced fatigue. This compound deserves further investigations in a randomised, placebo-controlled study

The Things You Do:Internal Models of Others' Expected Behaviour Guide Action Observation

Predictions allow humans to manage uncertainties within social interactions. Here, we investigate how explicit and implicit person models-how different people behave in different situations-shape these predictions. In a novel action identification task, participants judged whether actors interacted with or withdrew from objects. In two experiments, we manipulated, unbeknownst to participants, the two actors action likelihoods across situations, such that one actor typically interacted with one object and withdrew from the other, while the other actor showed the opposite behaviour. In Experiment 2, participants additionally received explicit information about the two individuals that either matched or mismatched their actual behaviours. The data revealed direct but dissociable effects of both kinds of person information on action identification. Implicit action likelihoods affected response times, speeding up the identification of typical relative to atypical actions, irrespective of the explicit knowledge about the individual's behaviour. Explicit person knowledge, in contrast, affected error rates, causing participants to respond according to expectations instead of observed behaviour, even when they were aware that the explicit information might not be valid. Together, the data show that internal models of others' behaviour are routinely re-activated during action observation. They provide first evidence of a person-specific social anticipation system, which predicts forthcoming actions from both explicit information and an individuals' prior behaviour in a situation. These data link action observation to recent models of predictive coding in the non-social domain where similar dissociations between implicit effects on stimulus identification and explicit behavioural wagers have been reported

Do Bat Gantries and Underpasses Help Bats Cross Roads Safely?

Major roads can reduce bat abundance and diversity over considerable distances. To mitigate against these effects and comply with environmental law, many European countries install bridges, gantries or underpasses to make roads permeable and safer to cross. However, through lack of appropriate monitoring, there is little evidence to support their effectiveness. Three underpasses and four bat gantries were investigated in northern England. Echolocation call recordings and observations were used to determine the number of bats using underpasses in preference to crossing the road above, and the height at which bats crossed. At gantries, proximity to the gantry and height of crossing bats were measured. Data were compared to those from adjacent, severed commuting routes that had no crossing structure. At one underpass 96% of bats flew through it in preference to crossing the road. This underpass was located on a pre-construction commuting route that allowed bats to pass without changing flight height or direction. At two underpasses attempts to divert bats from their original commuting routes were unsuccessful and bats crossed the road at the height of passing vehicles. Underpasses have the potential to allow bats to cross roads safely if built on pre-construction commuting routes. Bat gantries were ineffective and used by a very small proportion of bats, even up to nine years after construction. Most bats near gantries crossed roads along severed, pre-construction commuting routes at heights that put them in the path of vehicles. Crossing height was strongly correlated with verge height, suggesting that elevated verges may have some value in mitigation, but increased flight height may be at the cost of reduced permeability. Green bridges should be explored as an alternative form of mitigation. Robust monitoring is essential to assess objectively the case for mitigation and to ensure effective mitigation

Empathy Manipulation Impacts Music-Induced Emotions: A Psychophysiological Study on Opera

This study investigated the effects of voluntarily empathizing with a musical performer (i.e., cognitive empathy) on music-induced emotions and their underlying physiological activity. N = 56 participants watched video-clips of two operatic compositions performed in concerts, with low or high empathy instructions. Heart rate and heart rate variability, skin conductance level (SCL), and respiration rate (RR) were measured during music listening, and music-induced emotions were quantified using the Geneva Emotional Music Scale immediately after music listening. Listening to the aria with sad content in a high empathy condition facilitated the emotion of nostalgia and decreased SCL, in comparison to the low empathy condition. Listening to the song with happy content in a high empathy condition also facilitated the emotion of power and increased RR, in comparison to the low empathy condition. To our knowledge, this study offers the first experimental evidence that cognitive empathy influences emotion psychophysiology during music listening