Future Arctic ozone recovery: the importance of chemistry and dynamics

Future trends in Arctic springtime total column ozone, and its chemical and dynamical drivers, are assessed using a seven-member ensemble from the Met Office Unified Model with United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols (UM-UKCA) simulating the period 1960–2100. The Arctic mean March total column ozone increases throughout the 21st century at a rate of  ∼  11.5 DU decade⁻¹, and is projected to return to the 1980 level in the late 2030s. However, the integrations show that even past 2060 springtime Arctic ozone can episodically drop by  ∼  50–100 DU below the corresponding long-term ensemble mean for that period, reaching values characteristic of the near-present-day average level. Consistent with the global decline in inorganic chlorine (Clᵧ) over the century, the estimated mean halogen-induced chemical ozone loss in the Arctic lower atmosphere in spring decreases by around a factor of 2 between the periods 2001–2020 and 2061–2080. However, in the presence of a cold and strong polar vortex, elevated halogen-induced ozone losses well above the corresponding long-term mean continue to occur in the simulations into the second part of the century. The ensemble shows a significant cooling trend in the Arctic winter mid- and upper stratosphere, but there is less confidence in the projected temperature trends in the lower stratosphere (100–50 hPa). This is partly due to an increase in downwelling over the Arctic polar cap in winter, which increases transport of ozone into the polar region as well as drives adiabatic warming that partly offsets the radiatively driven stratospheric cooling. However, individual winters characterised by significantly suppressed downwelling, reduced transport and anomalously low temperatures continue to occur in the future. We conclude that, despite the projected long-term recovery of Arctic ozone, the large interannual dynamical variability is expected to continue in the future, thereby facilitating episodic reductions in springtime ozone columns. Whilst our results suggest that the relative role of dynamical processes for determining Arctic springtime ozone will increase in the future, halogen chemistry will remain a smaller but non-negligible contributor for many decades to come.We thank NCAS Computational Model Support for help with setting up and porting the model. We acknowledge the ARCHER UK National Supercomputing Service. We acknowledge use of the MONSooN system, a collaborative facility supplied under the Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme, which is a strategic partnership between the UK Met Office and the NERC. Amanda C. Maycock, John A. Pyle and N. Luke Abraham were supported by the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, a NERC-funded research centre. We acknowledge funding from the ERC for the ACCI project (grant number 267760), including a PhD studentship for Ewa M. Bednarz. Amanda C. Maycock acknowledges support from an AXA postdoctoral fellowship and NERC grant NE/M018199/1

A Finite Element Test Bed for Diffraction Tomography

Finite element analysis methods have been successfully applied to the study of ultrasonic wave propagation in elastic solids [1–4]. As a natural part of such numerical solutions. displacements are predicted for every node of the spatial discretization describing the solids geometry and at every instant of time in the temporal discretization used to define the pulse propagation through the material. All of the data constitute a solution to the forward problem and can be used to visualize wavefront propagation and interactions with defects, thus predicting displacement signals at any point in or on the solid

Gamma-Ray Background from Structure Formation in the Intergalactic Medium

The universe is filled with a diffuse and isotropic extragalactic background of gamma-ray radiation, containing roughly equal energy flux per decade in photon energy between 3 MeV-100 GeV. The origin of this background is one of the unsolved puzzles in cosmology. Less than a quarter of the gamma-ray flux can be attributed to unresolved discrete sources, but the remainder appears to constitute a truly diffuse background whose origin has hitherto been mysterious. Here we show that the shock waves induced by gravity during the formation of large-scale structure in the intergalactic medium, produce a population of highly-relativistic electrons with a maximum Lorentz factor above 10^7. These electrons scatter a small fraction of the microwave background photons in the present-day universe up to gamma-ray energies, thereby providing the gamma-ray background. The predicted diffuse flux agrees with the observed background over more than four decades in photon energy, and implies a mean cosmological density of baryons which is consistent with Big-Bang nucleosynthesis.Comment: 7 pages, 1 figure. Accepted for publication in Nature. (Press embargo until published.

Separating the role of direct radiative heating and photolysis in modulating the atmospheric response to the amplitude of the 11-year solar cycle forcing

The atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle is separated into the contributions from changes in direct radiative heating and photolysis rates using specially designed sensitivity simulations with the UM-UKCA (Unified Model coupled to the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosol model) chemistry–climate model. We perform a number of idealised time-slice experiments under perpetual solar maximum (SMAX) and minimum conditions (SMIN), and we find that contributions from changes in direct heating and photolysis rates are both important for determining the stratospheric shortwave heating, temperature and ozone responses to the amplitude of the 11-year solar cycle. The combined effects of the processes are found to be largely additive in the tropics but nonadditive in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) high latitudes during the dynamically active season. Our results indicate that, in contrast to the original mechanism proposed in the literature, the solar-induced changes in the horizontal shortwave heating rate gradients not only in autumn/early winter but throughout the dynamically active season are important for modulating the dynamical response to changes in solar forcing. In spring, these gradients are strongly influenced by the shortwave heating anomalies at higher southern latitudes, which are closely linked to the concurrent changes in ozone. In addition, our simulations indicate differences in the winter SH dynamical responses between the experiments. We suggest a couple of potential drivers of the simulated differences, i.e. the role of enhanced zonally asymmetric ozone heating brought about by the increased solar-induced ozone levels under SMAX and/or sensitivity of the polar dynamical response to the altitude of the anomalous radiative tendencies. All in all, our results suggest that solar-induced changes in ozone, both in the tropics/mid-latitudes and the polar regions, are important for modulating the SH dynamical response to the 11-year solar cycle. In addition, the markedly nonadditive character of the SH polar vortex response simulated in austral spring highlights the need for consistent model implementation of the solar cycle forcing in both the radiative heating and photolysis schemes

Long-lived stops in MSSM scenarios with a neutralino LSP

This work investigates the possibility of a long-lived stop squark in supersymmetric models with the neutralino as the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP). We study the implications of meta-stable stops on the sparticle mass spectra and the dark matter density. We find that in order to obtain a sufficiently long stop lifetime so as to be observable as a stable R-hadron at an LHC experiment, we need to fine tune the mass degeneracy between the stop and the LSP considerably. This increases the stop-neutralino coanihilation cross section, leaving the neutralino relic density lower than what is expected from the WMAP results for stop masses ~1.5 TeV/c^2. However, if such scenarios are realised in nature we demonstrate that the long-lived stops will be produced at the LHC and that stop-based R-hadrons with masses up to 1 TeV/c^2 can be detected after one year of running at design luminosity

Speed and Accuracy of Static Image Discrimination by Rats

When discriminating dynamic noisy sensory signals, human and primate subjects achieve higher accuracy when they take more time to decide, an effect attributed to accumulation of evidence over time to overcome neural noise. We measured the speed and accuracy of twelve freely behaving rats discriminating static, high contrast photographs of real-world objects for water reward in a self-paced task. Response latency was longer in correct trials compared to error trials. Discrimination accuracy increased with response latency over the range of 500-1200ms. We used morphs between previously learned images to vary the image similarity parametrically, and thereby modulate task difficulty from ceiling to chance. Over this range we find that rats take more time before responding in trials with more similar stimuli. We conclude that rats' perceptual decisions improve with time even in the absence of temporal information in the stimulus, and that rats modulate speed in response to discrimination difficulty to balance speed and accuracy

Processes Controlling Tropical Tropopause Temperature and Stratospheric Water Vapor in Climate Models

A warm bias in tropical tropopause temperature is found in the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM), in common with most models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5). Key dynamical, microphysical, and radiative processes influencing the tropical tropopause temperature and lower-stratospheric water vapor concentrations in climate models are investigated using the MetUM. A series of sensitivity experiments are run to separate the effects of vertical advection, ice optical and microphysical properties, convection, cirrus clouds, and atmospheric composition on simulated tropopause temperature and lower-stratospheric water vapor concentrations in the tropics. The numerical accuracy of the vertical advection, determined in the MetUM by the choice of interpolation and conservation schemes used, is found to be particularly important. Microphysical and radiative processes are found to influence stratospheric water vapor both through modifying the tropical tropopause temperature and through modifying upper-tropospheric water vapor concentrations, allowing more water vapor to be advected into the stratosphere. The representation of any of the processes discussed can act to significantly reduce biases in tropical tropopause temperature and stratospheric water vapor in a physical way, thereby improving climate simulations

Virtual screening for inhibitors of the human TSLP:TSLPR interaction

The pro-inflammatory cytokine thymic stromal lymphopoietin (TSLP) plays a pivotal role in the pathophysiology of various allergy disorders that are mediated by type 2 helper T cell (Th2) responses, such as asthma and atopic dermatitis. TSLP forms a ternary complex with the TSLP receptor (TSLPR) and the interleukin-7-receptor subunit alpha (IL-7Ra), thereby activating a signaling cascade that culminates in the release of pro-inflammatory mediators. In this study, we conducted an in silico characterization of the TSLP: TSLPR complex to investigate the drugability of this complex. Two commercially available fragment libraries were screened computationally for possible inhibitors and a selection of fragments was subsequently tested in vitro. The screening setup consisted of two orthogonal assays measuring TSLP binding to TSLPR: a BLI-based assay and a biochemical assay based on a TSLP: alkaline phosphatase fusion protein. Four fragments pertaining to diverse chemical classes were identified to reduce TSLP: TSLPR complex formation to less than 75% in millimolar concentrations. We have used unbiased molecular dynamics simulations to develop a Markov state model that characterized the binding pathway of the most interesting compound. This work provides a proof-ofprinciple for use of fragments in the inhibition of TSLP: TSLPR complexation

Trial Protocol: Randomised controlled trial of the effects of very low calorie diet, modest dietary restriction, and sequential behavioural programme on hunger, urges to smoke, abstinence and weight gain in overweight smokers stopping smoking

Background\ud Weight gain accompanies smoking cessation, but dieting during quitting is controversial as hunger may increase urges to smoke. This is a feasibility trial for the investigation of a very low calorie diet (VLCD), individual modest energy restriction, and usual advice on hunger, ketosis, urges to smoke, abstinence and weight gain in overweight smokers trying to quit. \ud \ud Methods\ud This is a 3 armed, unblinded, randomized controlled trial in overweight (BMI > 25 kg/$m^2$), daily smokers (CO > 10 ppm); with at least 30 participants in each group. Each group receives identical behavioural support and NRT patches (25 mg(8 weeks),15 mg(2 weeks),10 mg(2 weeks)). The VLCD group receive a 429-559 kcal/day liquid formula beginning 1 week before quitting and continuing for 4 weeks afterwards. The modest energy restricted group (termed individual dietary and activity planning(IDAP)) engage in goal-setting and receive an energy prescription based on individual basal metabolic rate(BMR) aiming for daily reduction of 600 kcal. The control group receive usual dietary advice that accompanies smoking cessation i.e. avoiding feeling hungry but eating healthy snacks. After this, the VLCD participants receive IDAP to provide support for changing eating habits in the longer term; the IDAP group continues receiving this support. The control group receive IDAP 8 weeks after quitting. This allows us to compare IDAP following a successful quit attempt with dieting concurrently during quitting. It also aims to prevent attrition in the unblinded, control group by meeting their need for weight management. Follow-up occurs at 6 and 12 months. \ud \ud Outcome measures include participant acceptability, measured qualitatively by semi-structured interviewing and quantitatively by recruitment and attrition rates. Feasibility of running the trial within primary care is measured by interview and questionnaire of the treatment providers. Adherence to the VLCD is verified by the presence of urinary ketones measured weekly. Daily urges to smoke, hunger and withdrawal are measured using the Mood and Physical Symptoms Scale-Combined (MPSS-C) and a Hunger Craving Score (HCS). 24 hour, 7 day point prevalence and 4-week prolonged abstinence (Russell Standard) is confirmed by CO < 10 ppm. Weight, waist and hip circumference and percentage body fat are measured at each visit. \ud \ud Trial Registration\ud Current controlled trials ISRCTN83865809\ud \u

Lightning NOx, a key chemistry-climate interaction: impacts of future climate change and consequences for tropospheric oxidising capacity

Lightning is one of the major natural sources of NOx in the atmosphere. A suite of time slice experiments using a stratosphere-resolving configuration of the Unified Model (UM), containing the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols sub-model (UKCA), has been performed to investigate the impact of climate change on emissions of NOx from lightning (LNOx) and to highlight its critical impacts on photochemical ozone production and the oxidising capacity of the troposphere. Two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are explored. LNOx is simulated to increase in a year-2100 climate by 33% (RCP4.5) and 78% (RCP8.5), primarily as a result of increases in the depth of convection. The total tropospheric chemical odd oxygen production (P(Ox)) increases linearly with increases in total LNOx and consequently, tropospheric ozone burdens of 29 ± 4 Tg(O3) (RCP4.5) and 46 ± 4 Tg(O3) (RCP8.5) are calculated here. By prescribing a uniform surface boundary concentration for methane in these simulations, methane-driven feedbacks are essentially neglected. A simple estimate of the contribution of the feedback reduces the increase in ozone burden to 24 and 33 Tg(O3), respectively. We thus show that, through changes in LNOx, the effects of climate change counteract the simulated mitigation of the ozone burden, which results from reductions in ozone precursor emissions as part of air quality controls projected in the RCP scenarios. Without the driver of increased LNOx, our simulations suggest that the net effect of climate change would be to lower free tropospheric ozone. In addition, we identify large climate-change-induced enhancements in the concentration of the hydroxyl radical (OH) in the tropical upper troposphere (UT), particularly over the Maritime Continent, primarily as a consequence of greater LNOx. The OH enhancement in the tropics increases oxidation of both methane (with feedbacks onto chemistry and climate) and very short-lived substances (VSLS) (with implications for stratospheric ozone depletion). We emphasise that it is important to improve our understanding of LNOx in order to gain confidence in model projections of composition change under future climate