Towards clinical utility of polygenic risk scores.

Prediction of disease risk is an essential part of preventative medicine, often guiding clinical management. Risk prediction typically includes risk factors such as age, sex, family history of disease and lifestyle (e.g. smoking status); however, in recent years, there has been increasing interest to include genomic information into risk models. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) aggregate the effects of many genetic variants across the human genome into a single score and have recently been shown to have predictive value for multiple common diseases. In this review, we summarize the potential use cases for seven common diseases (breast cancer, prostate cancer, coronary artery disease, obesity, type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes and Alzheimer's disease) where PRS has or could have clinical utility. PRS analysis for these diseases frequently revolved around (i) risk prediction performance of a PRS alone and in combination with other non-genetic risk factors, (ii) estimation of lifetime risk trajectories, (iii) the independent information of PRS and family history of disease or monogenic mutations and (iv) estimation of the value of adding a PRS to specific clinical risk prediction scenarios. We summarize open questions regarding PRS usability, ancestry bias and transferability, emphasizing the need for the next wave of studies to focus on the implementation and health-economic value of PRS testing. In conclusion, it is becoming clear that PRS have value in disease risk prediction and there are multiple areas where this may have clinical utility

Prediction of breast cancer prognosis using gene set statistics provides signature stability and biological context

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Different microarray studies have compiled gene lists for predicting outcomes of a range of treatments and diseases. These have produced gene lists that have little overlap, indicating that the results from any one study are unstable. It has been suggested that the underlying pathways are essentially identical, and that the expression of gene sets, rather than that of individual genes, may be more informative with respect to prognosis and understanding of the underlying biological process.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We sought to examine the stability of prognostic signatures based on gene sets rather than individual genes. We classified breast cancer cases from five microarray studies according to the risk of metastasis, using features derived from predefined gene sets. The expression levels of genes in the sets are aggregated, using what we call a set statistic. The resulting prognostic gene sets were as predictive as the lists of individual genes, but displayed more consistent rankings via bootstrap replications within datasets, produced more stable classifiers across different datasets, and are potentially more interpretable in the biological context since they examine gene expression in the context of their neighbouring genes in the pathway. In addition, we performed this analysis in each breast cancer molecular subtype, based on ER/HER2 status. The prognostic gene sets found in each subtype were consistent with the biology based on previous analysis of individual genes.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>To date, most analyses of gene expression data have focused at the level of the individual genes. We show that a complementary approach of examining the data using predefined gene sets can reduce the noise and could provide increased insight into the underlying biological pathways.</p

Towards a Molecular Systems Model of Coronary Artery Disease

Peer reviewe

Accurate and robust genomic prediction of celiac disease using statistical learning.

Practical application of genomic-based risk stratification to clinical diagnosis is appealing yet performance varies widely depending on the disease and genomic risk score (GRS) method. Celiac disease (CD), a common immune-mediated illness, is strongly genetically determined and requires specific HLA haplotypes. HLA testing can exclude diagnosis but has low specificity, providing little information suitable for clinical risk stratification. Using six European cohorts, we provide a proof-of-concept that statistical learning approaches which simultaneously model all SNPs can generate robust and highly accurate predictive models of CD based on genome-wide SNP profiles. The high predictive capacity replicated both in cross-validation within each cohort (AUC of 0.87-0.89) and in independent replication across cohorts (AUC of 0.86-0.9), despite differences in ethnicity. The models explained 30-35% of disease variance and up to ∼43% of heritability. The GRS's utility was assessed in different clinically relevant settings. Comparable to HLA typing, the GRS can be used to identify individuals without CD with ≥99.6% negative predictive value however, unlike HLA typing, fine-scale stratification of individuals into categories of higher-risk for CD can identify those that would benefit from more invasive and costly definitive testing. The GRS is flexible and its performance can be adapted to the clinical situation by adjusting the threshold cut-off. Despite explaining a minority of disease heritability, our findings indicate a genomic risk score provides clinically relevant information to improve upon current diagnostic pathways for CD and support further studies evaluating the clinical utility of this approach in CD and other complex diseases

PrivGenDB: Efficient and privacy-preserving query executions over encrypted SNP-Phenotype database

Searchable symmetric encryption (SSE) has been used to protect the confidentiality of genomic data while providing substring search and range queries on a sequence of genomic data, but it has not been studied for protecting single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-phenotype data. In this article, we propose a novel model, PrivGenDB, for securely storing and efficiently conducting different queries on genomic data outsourced to an honest-but-curious cloud server. To instantiate PrivGenDB, we use SSE to ensure confidentiality while conducting different types of queries on encrypted genomic data, phenotype and other information of individuals to help analysts/clinicians in their analysis/care. To the best of our knowledge, PrivGenDB construction is the first SSE-based approach ensuring the confidentiality of shared SNP-phenotype data through encryption while making the computation/query process efficient and scalable for biomedical research and care. Furthermore, it supports a variety of query types on genomic data, including count queries, Boolean queries, and k'-out-of-k match queries. Finally, the PrivGenDB model handles the dataset containing both genotype and phenotype, and it also supports storing and managing other metadata like gender and ethnicity privately. Computer evaluations on a dataset with 5,000 records and 1,000 SNPs demonstrate that a count/Boolean query and a k'-out-of-k match query over 40 SNPs take approximately 4.3s and 86.4{\mu}s, respectively, that outperforms the existing schemes

Genetic loci associated with coronary artery disease harbor evidence of selection and antagonistic pleiotropy

Traditional genome-wide scans for positive selection have mainly uncovered selective sweeps associated with monogenic traits. While selection on quantitative traits is much more common, very few signals have been detected because of their polygenic nature. We searched for positive selection signals underlying coronary artery disease (CAD) in worldwide populations, using novel approaches to quantify relationships between polygenic selection signals and CAD genetic risk. We identified new candidate adaptive loci that appear to have been directly modified by disease pressures given their significant associations with CAD genetic risk. These candidates were all uniquely and consistently associated with many different male and female reproductive traits suggesting selection may have also targeted these because of their direct effects on fitness. We found that CAD loci are significantly enriched for lifetime reproductive success relative to the rest of the human genome, with evidence that the relationship between CAD and lifetime reproductive success is antagonistic. This supports the presence of antagonistic-pleiotropic tradeoffs on CAD loci and provides a novel explanation for the maintenance and high prevalence of CAD in modern humans. Lastly, we found that positive selection more often targeted CAD gene regulatory variants using HapMap3 lymphoblastoid cell lines, which further highlights the unique biological significance of candidate adaptive loci underlying CAD. Our study provides a novel approach for detecting selection on polygenic traits and evidence that modern human genomes have evolved in response to CAD-induced selection pressures and other early-life traits sharing pleiotropic links with CAD.Peer reviewe

Elevated serum alpha-1 antitrypsin is a major component of GlycA-associated risk for future morbidity and mortality

Background GlycA is a nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy biomarker that predicts risk of disease from myriad causes. It is heterogeneous; arising from five circulating glycoproteins with dynamic concentrations: alpha-1 antitrypsin (AAT), alpha-1-acid glycoprotein (AGP), haptoglobin (HP), transferrin (TF), and alpha-1-antichymotrypsin (AACT). The contributions of each glycoprotein to the disease and mortality risks predicted by GlycA remain unknown. Methods We trained imputation models for AAT, AGP, HP, and TF from NMR metabolite measurements in 626 adults from a population cohort with matched NMR and immunoassay data. Levels of AAT, AGP, and HP were estimated in 11,861 adults from two population cohorts with eight years of follow-up, then each biomarker was tested for association with all common endpoints. Whole blood gene expression data was used to identify cellular processes associated with elevated AAT. Results Accurate imputation models were obtained for AAT, AGP, and HP but not for TF. While AGP had the strongest correlation with GlycA, our analysis revealed variation in imputed AAT levels was the most predictive of morbidity and mortality for the widest range of diseases over the eight year follow-up period, including heart failure (meta-analysis hazard ratio = 1.60 per standard deviation increase of AAT, P-value = 1×10−10), influenza and pneumonia (HR = 1.37, P = 6×10−10), and liver diseases (HR = 1.81, P = 1×10−6). Transcriptional analyses revealed association of elevated AAT with diverse inflammatory immune pathways. Conclusions This study clarifies the molecular underpinnings of the GlycA biomarker’s associated disease risk, and indicates a previously unrecognised association between elevated AAT and severe disease onset and mortality.Peer reviewe

A Scalable Permutation Approach Reveals Replication and Preservation Patterns of Network Modules in Large Datasets.

Network modules-topologically distinct groups of edges and nodes-that are preserved across datasets can reveal common features of organisms, tissues, cell types, and molecules. Many statistics to identify such modules have been developed, but testing their significance requires heuristics. Here, we demonstrate that current methods for assessing module preservation are systematically biased and produce skewed p values. We introduce NetRep, a rapid and computationally efficient method that uses a permutation approach to score module preservation without assuming data are normally distributed. NetRep produces unbiased p values and can distinguish between true and false positives during multiple hypothesis testing. We use NetRep to quantify preservation of gene coexpression modules across murine brain, liver, adipose, and muscle tissues. Complex patterns of multi-tissue preservation were revealed, including a liver-derived housekeeping module that displayed adipose- and muscle-specific association with body weight. Finally, we demonstrate the broader applicability of NetRep by quantifying preservation of bacterial networks in gut microbiota between men and women

Genomic risk scores for juvenile idiopathic arthritis and its subtypes

Objectives: Juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) is an autoimmune disease and a common cause of chronic disability in children. Diagnosis of JIA is based purely on clinical symptoms, which can be variable, leading to diagnosis and treatment delays. Despite JIA having substantial heritability, the construction of genomic risk scores (GRSs) to aid or expedite diagnosis has not been assessed. Here, we generate GRSs for JIA and its subtypes and evaluate their performance. Methods: We examined three case/control cohorts (UK, US-based and Australia) with genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotypes. We trained GRSs for JIA and its subtypes using lasso-penalised linear models in cross-validation on the UK cohort, and externally tested it in the other cohorts. Results: The JIA GRS alone achieved cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)=0.670 in the UK cohort and externally-validated AUCs of 0.657 and 0.671 in the US-based and Australian cohorts, respectively. In logistic regression of case/control status, the corresponding odds ratios (ORs) per standard deviation (SD) of GRS were 1.831 (1.685 to 1.991) and 2.008 (1.731 to 2.345), and were unattenuated by adjustment for sex or the top 10 genetic principal components. Extending our analysis to JIA subtypes revealed that the enthesitis-related JIA had both the longest time-to-referral and the subtype GRS with the strongest predictive capacity overall across data sets: AUCs 0.82 in UK; 0.84 in Australian; and 0.70 in US-based. The particularly common oligoarthritis JIA also had a GRS that outperformed those for JIA overall, with AUCs of 0.72, 0.74 and 0.77, respectively. Conclusions: A GRS for JIA has potential to augment clinical JIA diagnosis protocols, prioritising higher-risk individuals for follow-up and treatment. Consistent with JIA heterogeneity, subtype-specific GRSs showed particularly high performance for enthesitis-related and oligoarthritis JIA

Left atrial decompression through unidirectional left-to-right interatrial shunt for the treatment of left heart failure : first-inman experience with the V-Wave device

Aims: Elevated filling pressures of the left atrium (LA) are associated with poorer outcomes in patients with chronic heart failure. The V-Wave is a new percutaneously implanted device intended to decrease the LA pressure by the shunting of blood from the LA to the right atrium. This report describes the first-in-man experience with the V-Wave device. Methods and results: A 70-year-old man with a history of heart failure of ischaemic origin, left ventricular dysfunction (LVEF: 35%, pulmonary wedge: 19 mmHg), no right heart dysfunction, NYHA Class III and orthopnoea despite optimal treatment, was accepted for V-Wave device implantation. The device consists of an ePTFE encapsulated nitinol frame that is implanted at the level of the interatrial septum and contains a trileaflet pericardium tissue valve sutured inside which allows a unidirectional LA to right atrium shunt. The procedure was performed through a transfemoral venous approach under fluoroscopic and TEE guidance. The device was successfully implanted and the patient was discharged 24 hours after the procedure with no complications. At three-month follow-up a left-to-right shunt through the device was confirmed by TEE. The patient was in NYHA Class II, without orthopnoea, the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy index was 77.6 (from 39.1 at baseline) and NT-proBNP was 322 ng/mL (from 502 ng/mL at baseline). The QP/QS was 1.17 and the pulmonary wedge was 8 mmHg, with no changes in pulmonary pressure or right ventricular function. Conclusions: Left atrial decompression through a unidirectional left-to-right interatrial shunt represents a new concept for the treatment of patients with left ventricular failure. The present report shows the feasibility of applying this new therapy with the successful and uneventful implantation of the V-Wave device, which was associated with significant improvement in functional, quality of life and haemodynamic parameters at 90 days