A finite element method model to simulate laser interstitial thermo therapy in anatomical inhomogeneous regions

BACKGROUND: Laser Interstitial ThermoTherapy (LITT) is a well established surgical method. The use of LITT is so far limited to homogeneous tissues, e.g. the liver. One of the reasons is the limited capability of existing treatment planning models to calculate accurately the damage zone. The treatment planning in inhomogeneous tissues, especially of regions near main vessels, poses still a challenge. In order to extend the application of LITT to a wider range of anatomical regions new simulation methods are needed. The model described with this article enables efficient simulation for predicting damaged tissue as a basis for a future laser-surgical planning system. Previously we described the dependency of the model on geometry. With the presented paper including two video files we focus on the methodological, physical and mathematical background of the model. METHODS: In contrast to previous simulation attempts, our model is based on finite element method (FEM). We propose the use of LITT, in sensitive areas such as the neck region to treat tumours in lymph node with dimensions of 0.5 cm – 2 cm in diameter near the carotid artery. Our model is based on calculations describing the light distribution using the diffusion approximation of the transport theory; the temperature rise using the bioheat equation, including the effect of microperfusion in tissue to determine the extent of thermal damage; and the dependency of thermal and optical properties on the temperature and the injury. Injury is estimated using a damage integral. To check our model we performed a first in vitro experiment on porcine muscle tissue. RESULTS: We performed the derivation of the geometry from 3D ultrasound data and show for this proposed geometry the energy distribution, the heat elevation, and the damage zone. Further on, we perform a comparison with the in-vitro experiment. The calculation shows an error of 5% in the x-axis parallel to the blood vessel. CONCLUSIONS: The FEM technique proposed can overcome limitations of other methods and enables an efficient simulation for predicting the damage zone induced using LITT. Our calculations show clearly that major vessels would not be damaged. The area/volume of the damaged zone calculated from both simulation and in-vitro experiment fits well and the deviation is small. One of the main reasons for the deviation is the lack of accurate values of the tissue optical properties. In further experiments this needs to be validated

Diagnostic scope in out-of-hours primary care services in eight European countries: an observational study

Background: In previous years, out- of-hours primary care has been organised in large-scale organisations in many countries. This may have lowered the threshold for many patients to present health problems at nights and during the weekend. Comparisons of out-of-hours care between countries require internationally comparable figures on symptoms and diagnoses, which were not available. This study aimed to describe the symptoms and diagnoses in out-of-hours primary care services in regions in eight European countries. Methods: We conducted a retrospective observational study based on medical records from out-of-hours primary care services in Belgium, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Slovenia, Spain, and Switzerland. We aimed to include data on 1000 initial contacts from up to three organisations per country. Excluded were contacts with an administrative reason. The International Classification for Primary Care (ICPC) was used to categorise symptoms and diagnoses. In two countries (Slovenia and Spain) ICD10 codes were translated into ICPC codes. Results: The age distribution of patients showed a high consistency across countries, while the percentage of males varied from 33.7% to 48.3%. The ICPC categories that were used most frequently concerned: chapter A 'general and unspecified symptoms' (mean 13.2%), chapter R 'respiratory' (mean 20.4%), chapter L 'musculoskeletal' (mean 15.0%), chapter S 'skin' (mean 12.5%), and chapter D 'digestive' (mean 11.6%). So, relatively high numbers of patients presenting with infectious diseases or acute pain related syndromes. This was largely consistent across age groups, but in some age groups chapter H ('ear problems'), chapter L ('musculoskeletal') and chapter K ('cardiovascular') were frequently used. Acute life-threatening problems had a low incidence. Conclusions: This international study suggested a highly similar diagnostic scope in out-of-hours primary care services. The incidence rates of acute life-threatening health problems were low in all countries

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Comparison of norovirus genogroup I, II and IV seroprevalence among children in the Netherlands, 1963, 1983 and 2006

Noroviruses are a major cause of acute gastroenteritis worldwide and are a genetically diverse group of viruses. Since 2002, an increasing number of norovirus outbreaks have been reported globally, but it is not clear whether this increase has been caused by a higher awareness or reflects the emergence of new genogroup II genotype 4 (GII.4) variants. The hypothesis that norovirus prevalence has increased post-2002 and is related to the emergence of GII.4 is tested in this study. Sera collected from children aged <5 years of three Dutch cross-sectional population based cohorts in 1963, 1983 and 2006/2007 (n=143, n=130 and n=376, respectively) were tested for specific serum IgG by protein array using antigens to GII.4 and a range of other antigens representing norovirus GI, GII and GIV genotypes. The protein array was validated by paired sera of norovirus infected patients and supernatants of B-cell cultures with single epitope specificity. Evidence for norovirus infection was found to be common among Dutch children in each cohort, but the prevalence towards different genotypes changed over time. At the genogroup level, GI seroprevalence decreased significantly between 1963 and 2006/2007, while a significant increase of GII and, in particular, specific antibodies of the genotype GII.4 was detected in the 2006/2007 cohort. There were no children with only GII.4 antibodies in the 1963 cohort. This study shows that the high GII.4 norovirus incidence in very young children is a recent phenomenon. These findings are of importance for vaccine development and trials that are currently focusing mostly on GII.4 viruses

Non-rigid registration of a 3D ultrasound and a MR image data set of the female pelvic floor using a biomechanical model

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The visual combination of different modalities is essential for many medical imaging applications in the field of Computer-Assisted medical Diagnosis (CAD) to enhance the clinical information content. Clinically, incontinence is a diagnosis with high clinical prevalence and morbidity rate. The search for a method to identify risk patients and to control the success of operations is still a challenging task. The conjunction of magnetic resonance (MR) and 3D ultrasound (US) image data sets could lead to a new clinical visual representation of the morphology as we show with corresponding data sets of the female anal canal with this paper.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We present a feasibility study for a non-rigid registration technique based on a biomechanical model for MR and US image data sets of the female anal canal as a base for a new innovative clinical visual representation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>It is shown in this case study that the internal and external sphincter region could be registered elastically and the registration partially corrects the compression induced by the ultrasound transducer, so the MR data set showing the native anatomy is used as a frame for the US data set showing the same region with higher resolution but distorted by the transducer</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The morphology is of special interest in the assessment of anal incontinence and the non-rigid registration of normal clinical MR and US image data sets is a new field of the adaptation of this method incorporating the advantages of both technologies.</p