Predicting deadline transgressions using event logs

Effective risk management is crucial for any organisation. One of its key steps is risk identification, but few tools exist to support this process. Here we present a method for the automatic discovery of a particular type of process-related risk, the danger of deadline transgressions or overruns, based on the analysis of event logs. We define a set of time-related process risk indicators, i.e., patterns observable in event logs that highlight the likelihood of an overrun, and then show how instances of these patterns can be identified automatically using statistical principles. To demonstrate its feasibility, the approach has been implemented as a plug-in module to the process mining framework ProM and tested using an event log from a Dutch financial institution

Impact of intra-partum azithromycin on carriage of group A streptococcus in the Gambia: a posthoc analysis of a double-blind randomized placebo-controlled trial

Background: Group A Streptococcus (GAS) is a major human pathogen and an important cause of maternal and neonatal sepsis. Asymptomatic bacterial colonization is considered a necessary step towards sepsis. Intra-partum azithromycin may reduce GAS carriage. Methods: A posthoc analysis of a double-blind, placebo-controlled randomized-trial was performed to determine the impact of 2 g oral dose of intra-partum azithromycin on maternal and neonatal GAS carriage and antibiotic resistance. Following screening, 829 mothers were randomized who delivered 843 babies. GAS was determined by obtaining samples from the maternal and newborn nasopharynx, maternal vaginal tract and breastmilk. Whole Genome Sequencing (WGS) of GAS isolates was performed using the Illumina Miseq platform. Results: GAS carriage was lower in the nasopharynx of both mothers and babies and breast milk among participants in the azithromycin arm. No differences in GAS carriage were found between groups in the vaginal tract. The occurrence of azithromycin-resistant GAS was similar in both arms, except for a higher prevalence in the vaginal tract among women in the azithromycin arm. WGS revealed all macrolide-resistant vaginal tract isolates from the azithromycin arm were Streptococcus dysgalactiae subspecies equisimilis expressing Lancefield group A carbohydrate (SDSE(A)) harbouring macrolide resistant genes msr(D) and mef(A). Ten of the 45 GAS isolates (22.2%) were SDSE(A). Conclusions: Oral intra-partum azithromycin reduced GAS carriage among Gambian mothers and neonates however carriage in the maternal vaginal tract was not affected by the intervention due to azithromycin resistant SDSE(A). SDSE(A) resistance must be closely monitored to fully assess the public health impact of intrapartum azithromycin on GAS. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0180094

High SARS-CoV-2 incidence and asymptomatic fraction during Delta and Omicron BA.1 waves in The Gambia

Little is known about SARS-CoV-2 infection risk in African countries with high levels of infection-driven immunity and low vaccine coverage. We conducted a prospective cohort study of 349 participants from 52 households in The Gambia between March 2021 and June 2022, with routine weekly SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR and 6-monthly SARS-CoV-2 serology. Attack rates of 45% and 57% were seen during Delta and Omicron BA.1 waves respectively. Eighty-four percent of RT-PCR-positive infections were asymptomatic. Children under 5-years had a lower incidence of infection than 18-49-year-olds. One prior SARS-CoV-2 infection reduced infection risk during the Delta wave only, with immunity from ≥2 prior infections required to reduce the risk of infection with early Omicron lineage viruses. In an African population with high levels of infection-driven immunity and low vaccine coverage, we find high attack rates during SARS-CoV-2 waves, with a high proportion of asymptomatic infections and young children remaining relatively protected from infection

Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 infections in The Gambia: an analysis of routinely collected surveillance data between March, 2020, and January, 2022

Background: COVID-19, caused by SARS-CoV-2, is one of the deadliest pandemics of the past 100 years. Genomic sequencing has an important role in monitoring of the evolution of the virus, including the detection of new viral variants. We aimed to describe the genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 infections in The Gambia. Methods: Nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal swabs collected from people with suspected cases of COVID-19 and international travellers were tested for SARS-CoV-2 with standard RT-PCR methods. SARS-CoV-2-positive samples were sequenced according to standard library preparation and sequencing protocols. Bioinformatic analysis was done using ARTIC pipelines and Pangolin was used to assign lineages. To construct phylogenetic trees, sequences were first stratified into different COVID-19 waves (waves 1–4) and aligned. Clustering analysis was done and phylogenetic trees constructed. Findings: Between March, 2020, and January, 2022, 11 911 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were recorded in The Gambia, and 1638 SARS-CoV-2 genomes were sequenced. Cases were broadly distributed into four waves, with more cases during the waves that coincided with the rainy season (July–October). Each wave occurred after the introduction of new viral variants or lineages, or both, generally those already established in Europe or in other African countries. Local transmission was higher during the first and third waves (ie, those that corresponded with the rainy season), in which the B.1.416 lineage and delta (AY.34.1) were dominant, respectively. The second wave was driven by the alpha and eta variants and the B.1.1.420 lineage. The fourth wave was driven by the omicron variant and was predominantly associated with the BA.1.1 lineage. Interpretation: More cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection were recorded in The Gambia during peaks of the pandemic that coincided with the rainy season, in line with transmission patterns for other respiratory viruses. The introduction of new lineages or variants preceded epidemic waves, highlighting the importance of implementing well structured genomic surveillance at a national level to detect and monitor emerging and circulating variants. Funding: Medical Research Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK Research and Innovation, WHO

Insights into malaria susceptibility using genome-wide data on 17,000 individuals from Africa, Asia and Oceania

The human genetic factors that affect resistance to infectious disease are poorly understood. Here we report a genome-wide association study in 17,000 severe malaria cases and population controls from 11 countries, informed by sequencing of family trios and by direct typing of candidate loci in an additional 15,000 samples. We identify five replicable associations with genome-wide levels of evidence including a newly implicated variant on chromosome 6. Jointly, these variants account for around one-tenth of the heritability of severe malaria, which we estimate as -23% using genome-wide genotypes. We interrogate available functional data and discover an erythroid-specific transcription start site underlying the known association in ATP2B4, but are unable to identify a likely causal mechanism at the chromosome 6 locus. Previously reported HLA associations do not replicate in these samples. This large dataset will provide a foundation for further research on thegenetic determinants of malaria resistance in diverse populations.Peer reviewe

Moringa oleifera-horticulture-livestock integration approach to improving incomes and livelihoods of women farmers : the Gambian experience

Gambian women farmers acquired moringa cultivation training along with utilization of appropriate technologies, subsequently integrating these into their farming systems. The moringa-horticulture-livestock integration scheme increased income generation from sales of animal products, improved food and feed supply along with in-situ production of organic manure, while reducing costs of production and creating positive impacts on soil and water systems. Networks that could enhance the scheme’s gains were established. The project demonstrates the importance of research and technology development on the empowerment process of women, who benefitted from skills training, and increased income and food security

Profiling event logs to configure risk indicators for process delays

Risk identification is one of the most challenging stages in the risk management process. Conventional risk management approaches provide little guidance and companies often rely on the knowledge of experts for risk identification. In this paper we demonstrate how risk indicators can be used to predict process delays via a method for configuring so-called Process Risk Indicators(PRIs). The method learns suitable configurations from past process behaviour recorded in event logs. To validate the approach we have implemented it as a plug-in of the ProM process mining framework and have conducted experiments using various data sets from a major insurance company

Circulation of respiratory viruses during the COVID-19 pandemic in The Gambia [version 1; peer review: 2 approved]

Background: In many countries, non-pharmaceutical interventions to limit severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission resulted in significant reductions in other respiratory viruses. However, similar data from Africa are limited. We explored the extent to which viruses such as influenza and rhinovirus co-circulated with SARS-CoV-2 in The Gambia during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Between April 2020 and March 2022, respiratory viruses were detected using RT-PCR in nasopharyngeal swabs from 1397 participants with influenza-like illness. An assay to detect SARS-CoV-2 and a viral multiplex RT-PCR assay was used as previously described to detect influenza A and B, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) A and B, parainfluenza viruses 1-4, human metapneumovirus (HMPV), adenovirus, seasonal coronaviruses (229E, OC43, NL63) and human rhinovirus. Results: Overall virus positivity was 44.2%, with prevalence higher in children 50 years (39.9%), p50 years (24.3%), p50 years (6.3%), p<0.0001. Four SARS-CoV-2 waves occurred, with 36.1%-52.4% SARS-CoV-2 positivity during peak months. Influenza infections were observed in both 2020 and 2021 during the rainy season as expected (peak positivity 16.4%-23.5%). Peaks of rhinovirus were asynchronous to the months when SARS-CoV-2 and influenza peaked. Conclusion: Our data show that many respiratory viruses continued to circulate during the COVID-19 pandemic in The Gambia, including human rhinoviruses, despite the presence of NPIs during the early stages of the pandemic, and influenza peaks during expected months

Circulation of respiratory viruses during the COVID-19 pandemic in The Gambia [version 2; peer review: 2 approved]

Background: In many countries, non-pharmaceutical interventions to limit severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission resulted in significant reductions in other respiratory viruses. However, similar data from Africa are limited. We explored the extent to which viruses such as influenza and rhinovirus co-circulated with SARS-CoV-2 in The Gambia during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Between April 2020 and March 2022, respiratory viruses were detected using RT-PCR in nasopharyngeal swabs from 1397 participants with influenza-like illness. An assay to detect SARS-CoV-2 and a viral multiplex RT-PCR assay was used as previously described to detect influenza A and B, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) A and B, parainfluenza viruses 1-4, human metapneumovirus (HMPV), adenovirus, seasonal coronaviruses (229E, OC43, NL63) and human rhinovirus. Results: Overall virus positivity was 44.2%, with prevalence higher in children 50 years (39.9%), p50 years (24.3%), p50 years (6.3%), p<0.0001. Four SARS-CoV-2 waves occurred, with 36.1%-52.4% SARS-CoV-2 positivity during peak months. Influenza infections were observed in both 2020 and 2021 during the rainy season as expected (peak positivity 16.4%-23.5%). Peaks of rhinovirus were asynchronous to the months when SARS-CoV-2 and influenza peaked. Conclusion: Our data show that many respiratory viruses continued to circulate during the COVID-19 pandemic in The Gambia, including human rhinoviruses, despite the presence of NPIs during the early stages of the pandemic, and influenza peaks during expected months

Developing credible vulnerability indicators for climate adaptation policy assessment

We address the issue of how to develop credible indicators of vulnerability to climate change that can be used to guide the development of adaptation policies. We compare the indicators and measures that five past national-level studies have used and examine how and why their approaches have differed. Other relevant indicator studies of social facets of society as well as vulnerability studies at sub-national level are also examined for lessons regarding best practice. We find that the five studies generally emphasise descriptive measures by aggregating environmental and social conditions. However, they vary greatly both in the types of indicators and measures used and differ substantially in their identification of the most vulnerable countries. Further analysis of scientific approaches underlying indicator selection suggests that the policy relevance of national-level indicators can be enhanced by capturing the processes that shape vulnerability rather than trying to aggregate the state itself. Such a focus can guide the selection of indicators that are representative even when vulnerability varies over time or space. We find that conceptualisation regarding how specific factors and processes influencing vulnerability interact is neither given sufficient consideration nor are assumptions transparently defined in previous studies. Verification has been neglected, yet this process is important both to assess the credibility of any set of measures and to improve our understanding of vulnerability. A fundamental lesson that emerges is the need to enhance our understanding of the causes of vulnerability in order to develop indicators that can effectively aid policy development