Achieving convergence in galaxy formation models by augmenting N-body merger trees

Accurate modeling of galaxy formation in a hierarchical, cold dark matter universe requires the use of sufficiently high-resolution merger trees to obtain convergence in the predicted properties of galaxies. When semi-analytic galaxy formation models are applied to cosmological N-body simulation merger trees, it is often the case that those trees have insufficient resolution to give converged galaxy properties. We demonstrate a method to augment the resolution of N-body merger trees by grafting in branches of Monte Carlo merger trees with higher resolution, but which are consistent with the pre-existing branches in the N-body tree. We show that this approach leads to converged galaxy properties

Non-uniform reionization by galaxies and its effect on the cosmic microwave background

We present predictions for the reionization of the intergalactic medium (IGM) by stars in high-redshift galaxies, based on a semi-analytic model of galaxy formation. We calculate ionizing luminosities of galaxies, including the effects of absorption by interstellar gas and dust on the escape fraction ƒesc, and follow the propagation of the ionization fronts around each galaxy in order to calculate the filling factor of ionized hydrogen in the IGM. For a ΛCDM cosmology, with parameters of the galaxy formation model chosen to match observations of present-day galaxies, and a physical calculation of the escape fraction, we find that the hydrogen in the IGM will be reionized at redshift z=6.1 if the IGM has uniform density, but only by z=4.5 if the IGM is clumped. If instead we assume a constant escape fraction of 20 per cent for all galaxies, then we find reionization at z=4.5 and 7.8 for the same two assumptions about IGM clumping. We combine our semi-analytic model with an N-body simulation of the distribution of dark matter in the Universe in order to calculate the evolution of the spatial and velocity distribution of the ionized gas in the IGM, and use this to calculate the secondary temperature anisotropies induced in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) by scattering off free electrons. The models predict a spectrum of secondary anisotropies covering a broad range of angular scales, with fractional temperature fluctuations ∼10−7-10−6 on arcminute scales. The amplitude depends strongly on the total baryon density, and less sensitively on ƒesc. The amplitude also depends somewhat on the geometry of reionization, with models in which the regions of highest gas density are reionized first giving larger CMB fluctuations than the case where galaxies ionize surrounding spherical regions, and models where low-density regions reionize first giving the smallest fluctuations. Measurement of these anisotropies can therefore put important constraints on the reionization process, in particular, the redshift evolution of the filling factor, and should be a primary objective of a next generation submillimetre telescope such as the Atacama Large Millimeter Array

Speed-Accuracy Tradeoffs in Spatial Orientation Information Processing

A study was conducted to further evaluate the Manikin Task, a test of spatial orientation information processing. The objectives of the study were to determine the speed vs. accuracy tradeoff characteristics of the task and to assess performance on the task under the influence of ethyl alcohol. Response times and accuracy were measured on five subjects over a five-week period. Analysis of the data indicated a definite decline in accuracy corresponding to a forced decrease in response time. The effect of alcohol was evidenced by a change in the slope of the speed-accuracy tradeoff function.Yeshttps://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/manuscript-submission-guideline

Supermassive black hole merger rates: Uncertainties from halo merger theory

The merger of two supermassive black holes is expected to produce a gravitational-wave signal detectable by the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). The rate of supermassive-black-hole mergers is intimately connected to the halo merger rate, and the extended Press-Schechter (EPS) formalism is often employed when calculating the rate at which these events will be observed by LISA. This merger theory is flawed and provides two rates for the merging of the same pair of haloes. We show that the two predictions for the LISA supermassive-black-hole-merger event rate from EPS merger theory are nearly equal because mergers between haloes of similar masses dominate the event rate. An alternative merger rate may be obtained by inverting the Smoluchowski coagulation equation to find the merger rate that preserves the Press-Schechter halo abundance, but these rates are only available for power-law power spectra. We compare the LISA event rates derived from the EPS merger formalism to those derived from the merger rates obtained from the coagulation equation and find that the EPS LISA event rates are 30 per cent higher for a power spectrum spectral index that approximates the full A cold dark matter result of the EPS theory

The spatial distribution of cold gas in hierarchical galaxy formation models

The distribution of cold gas in dark matter haloes is driven by key processes in galaxy formation: gas cooling, galaxy mergers, star formation and reheating of gas by supernovae. We compare the predictions of four different galaxy formation models for the spatial distribution of cold gas. We find that satellite galaxies make little contribution to the abundance or clustering strength of cold gas selected samples, and are far less important than they are in optically selected samples. The halo occupation distribution function of present-day central galaxies with cold gas mass >109 h−1 M⊙ is peaked around a halo mass of ≈1011 h−1 M⊙, a scale that is set by the AGN suppression of gas cooling. The model predictions for the projected correlation function are in good agreement with measurements from the H i Parkes All-Sky Survey. We compare the effective volume of possible surveys with the Square Kilometre Array with those expected for a redshift survey in the near-infrared. Future redshift surveys using neutral hydrogen emission will make possible measurements of the baryonic acoustic oscillations that are competitive with the most ambitious spectroscopic surveys planned in the near-infrared

Theoretical models of the halo occupation distribution : separating central and satellite galaxies

The halo occupation distribution (HOD) describes the relation between galaxies and dark matter at the level of individual dark matter halos. The properties of galaxies residing at the centers of halos differ from those of satellite galaxies because of differences in their formation histories. Using a smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) simulation and a semianalytic (SA) galaxy formation model, we examine the separate contributions of central and satellite galaxies to the HOD, more specifically to the probability P(N|M) that a halo of virial mass M contains N galaxies of a particular class. In agreement with earlier results for dark matter subhalos, we find that the mean occupation function langNrangM for galaxies above a baryonic mass threshold can be approximated by a step function for central galaxies plus a power law for satellites and that the distribution of satellite numbers is close to Poisson at fixed halo mass. Since the number of central galaxies is always zero or one, the width of P(N|M) is narrower than a Poisson distribution at low N and approaches Poisson at high N. For galaxy samples defined by different baryonic mass thresholds, there is a nearly linear relation between the minimum halo mass Mmin required to host a central galaxy and the mass M1 at which an average halo hosts one satellite, with M1 ≈ 14Mmin (SPH) or M1 ≈ 18Mmin (SA). The stellar population age of central galaxies correlates with halo mass, and this correlation explains much of the age dependence of the galaxy HOD. The mean occupation number of young galaxies exhibits a local minimum at M ~ 10Mmin where halos are too massive to host a young central galaxy but not massive enough to host satellites. Using the SA model, we show that the conditional galaxy mass function at fixed halo mass cannot be described by a Schechter function because central galaxies produce a "bump" at high masses. We suggest parameterizations for the HOD and the conditional luminosity function that can be used to model observed galaxy clustering. Many of our predictions are in good agreement with recent results inferred from clustering in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey

Galactic stellar haloes in the CDM model

We present six simulations of galactic stellar haloes formed by the tidal disruption of accreted dwarf galaxies in a fully cosmological setting. Our model is based on the Aquarius project, a suite of high-resolution N-body simulations of individual dark matter haloes. We tag subsets of particles in these simulations with stellar populations predicted by the galform semi-analytic model. Our method self-consistently tracks the dynamical evolution and disruption of satellites from high redshift. The luminosity function (LF) and structural properties of surviving satellites, which agree well with observations, suggest that this technique is appropriate. We find that accreted stellar haloes are assembled between 1 < z < 7 from less than five significant progenitors. These progenitors are old, metal-rich satellites with stellar masses similar to the brightest Milky Way dwarf spheroidals (107–108 M⊙). In contrast to previous stellar halo simulations, we find that several of these major contributors survive as self-bound systems to the present day. Both the number of these significant progenitors and their infall times are inherently stochastic. This results in great diversity among our stellar haloes, which amplifies small differences between the formation histories of their dark halo hosts. The masses (∼ 108–109 M⊙) and density/surface-brightness profiles of the stellar haloes (from 10 to 100 kpc) are consistent with expectations from the Milky Way and M31. Each halo has a complex structure, consisting of well-mixed components, tidal streams, shells and other subcomponents. This structure is not adequately described by smooth models. The central regions (<10 kpc) of our haloes are highly prolate (c/a∼ 0.3), although we find one example of a massive accreted thick disc. Metallicity gradients in our haloes are typically significant only where the halo is built from a small number of satellites. We contrast the ages and metallicities of halo stars with surviving satellites, finding broad agreement with recent observations

Real-world evidence use in assessments of cancer drugs by NICE

Objective To establish how real-world evidence (RWE) has been used to inform single technology appraisals (STAs) of cancer drugs conducted by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE). Methods STAs published by NICE from April 2011 to October 2018 that evaluated cancer treatments were reviewed. Information regarding the use of RWE to directly inform the company-submitted cost-effectiveness analysis was extracted and categorized by topic. Summary statistics were used to describe emergent themes, and a narrative summary was provided for key case studies. Results Materials for a total of 113 relevant STAs were identified and analyzed, of which nearly all (96 percent) included some form of RWE within the company-submitted cost-effectiveness analysis. The most common categories of RWE use concerned the health-related quality of life of patients (71 percent), costs (46 percent), and medical resource utilization (40 percent). While sources of RWE were routinely criticized as part of the appraisal process, we identified only two cases where the use of RWE was overtly rejected; hence, in the majority of cases, RWE was accepted in cancer drug submissions to NICE. Discussion RWE has been used extensively in cancer submissions to NICE. Key criticisms of RWE in submissions to NICE are seldom regarding the use of RWE in general; instead, these are typically concerned with specific data sources and the applicability of these to the decision problem. Within an appropriate context, RWE constitutes an extremely valuable source of information to inform decision making; yet the development of best practice guidelines may improve current reporting standards

A reassessment of Kelmayisaurus petrolicus, a large theropod dinosaur from the Early Cretaceous of China

The Early Cretaceous fossil record of large−bodied theropods from Asia is poor, hindering comparison of Asian predatory dinosaur faunas with those from other continents. One of the few large Asian theropod specimens from this interval is a partial skull (maxilla and dentary) from the Lianmugin Formation (?Valanginian–Albian), the holotype of Kelmayisaurus petrolicus. Most authors have either considered this specimen as an indeterminate basal tetanuran or a nomen dubium. Weredescribe K. petrolicus and note that it possesses a single autapomorphy (a deep accessory groove on the lateral surface of the anterior dentary), as well as a unique combination of characters that differentiates it from other theropods, affirming its validity. A phylogenetic analysis recovers K. petrolicus as a basal carcharodontosaurid, which is supported by various features: very deep interdental plates (a carcharodontosaurid synapomorphy), fused interdental plates (present in carchardontosaurids and a limited number of other theropods), and the absence of diagnostic features of other clades of large−bodied theropods such as abelisaurids, megalosauroids, and coelurosaurs. As such, Kelmayisaurus is the second known carcharodontosaurid from Asia, and further evidence that this clade represented a global radiation of large−bodied predators during the Early–mid Cretaceous