ENSEMBLES: a new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions: Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs

A new 46-year hindcast dataset for seasonal-to-annual ensemble predictions has been created using a multi-model ensemble of 5 state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation models. The multi-model outperforms any of the single-models in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs because of reduced RMS errors and enhanced ensemble dispersion at all lead-times. Systematic errors are considerably reduced over the previous generation (DEMETER). Probabilistic skill scores show higher skill for the new multi-model ensemble than for DEMETER in the 4–6 month forecast range. However, substantially improved models would be required to achieve strongly statistical significant skill increases. The combination of ENSEMBLES and DEMETER into a grand multi-model ensemble does not improve the forecast skill further. Annual-range hindcasts show anomaly correlation skill of ∼0.5 up to 14 months ahead. A wide range of output from the multi-model simulations is becoming publicly available and the international community is invited to explore the full scientific potential of these data

Genome sequences of Burkholderia sp. Strains CCGE1002 and H160, isolated from legume nodules in Mexico and Brazil.

The genome sequences of Burkholderia sp. strains CCGE1002 from Mexico and H160 from Brazil, isolated from legume nodules, are reported. Their gene contents in relation to plant-microbe interactions and xenobiotic degradation are discussed

Optical identification of X-ray source 1RXS J180431.1-273932 as a magnetic cataclysmic variable

The X-ray source 1RXS J180431.1-273932 has been proposed as a new member of the symbiotic X-ray binary (SyXB) class of systems, which are composed of a late-type giant that loses matter to an extremely compact object, most likely a neutron star. In this paper, we present an optical campaign of imaging plus spectroscopy on selected candidate counterparts of this object. We also reanalyzed the available archival X-ray data collected with XMM-Newton. We find that the brightest optical source inside the 90% X-ray positional error circle is spectroscopically identified as a magnetic cataclysmic variable (CV), most likely of intermediate polar type, through the detection of prominent Balmer, He I, He II, and Bowen blend emissions. On either spectroscopic or statistical grounds, we discard as counterparts of the X-ray source the other optical objects in the XMM-Newton error circle. A red giant star of spectral type M5 III is found lying just outside the X-ray position: we consider this latter object as a fore-/background one and likewise rule it out as a counterpart of 1RXS J180431.1-273932. The description of the X-ray spectrum of the source using a bremsstrahlung plus black-body model gives temperatures of around 40 keV and around 0.1 keV for these two components, respectively. We estimate a distance of about 450 pc and a 0.2-10 keV X-ray luminosity of about 1.7e32 erg/s for this system and, using the information obtained from the X-ray spectral analysis, a mass of about 0.8 solar masses for the accreting white dwarf (WD). We also confirm an X-ray periodicity of 494 s for this source, which we interpret as the spin period of the WD. In summary, 1RXS J180431.1-273932 is identified as a magnetic CV and its SyXB nature is excluded.Comment: 9 pages, 7 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication on Astronomy & Astrophysics, main journal. Version 2 includes the A&A Language Editor's correction