Forecasting wind speed data by using a combination of ARIMA model with single exponential smoothing

Wind serves as natural resources as the solution to minimize global warming and has been commonly used to produce electricity. Because of their uncontrollable wind characteristics, wind speed forecasting is considered one of the best challenges in developing power generation. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) and a hybrid model combination of ARIMA and SES will be used in this study to predict the wind speed. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the root mean square error (RMSE) are used as measurement of efficiency. The hybrid model provides a positive outcome for predicting wind speed compare to the single model of ARIMA and SES

Determinan Penggunaan Kontrasepsi Pada Ibu Di Puskesmas Managaisaki

Latar Belakang : Salah satu upaya yang dilakukan untuk menangani masalah kependudukan adalah dengan menggalakkan program keluarga berencana. Keluarga berencana merupakan upaya peningkatan kepedulian dan peran serta masyarakat melalui pendewasaan usia perkawinan, pengaturan kelahiran, pembinaan ketahanan keluarga, peningkatan kesejahteraan keluarga untuk mewujudkan keluarga kecil, bahagia dan sejahtera. Penggunaan alat kontrasepsi merupakan salah satu cara untuk mengatasi permasalahan yang berhubungan dengan fertilitas. Penggunaan kontrasepsi tidak hanya dipengaruhi oleh faktor individu, faktor sosial seperti pengaruh keluarga dan masyarakat juga mempengaruhi penggunaan kontrasepsi. (BKKBN, 2007) Tujuan penelitian : Diketahuinya determinan penggunaan kontrasepsi pada ibu di Puskesmas Managaisaki. Metode Penelitian : Jenis penelitian analitik dengan rancangan cross sectional study, sampel dalam penelitian ini sebanyak 98 responden dengan tekhnik pengambilan sampel secara accidental sampling. Hasil Penelitian : hasil penelitian menunjukkan sebagian besar ibu menggunakan kontrasepsi 62 (63,27%), sebagian besar ibu memiliki pengetahuan yang baik yaitu sebesar 65 (66,33%), sebagian besar responden berpendidikan rendah yaitu berjumlah 52 (53.06%), dan sebagian besar Ibu mempunyai status ekonomi kurang yaitu berjumlah 56 (57.14%). hasil uji statistik variabel pengetahuan, pendidikan dan status ekonomi berhubungan dengan penggunaan kontrasepsi. Kesimpulan : Terdapat hubungan bermakna antara pengetahuan, pendidikan dan status ekonomi berhubungan dengan penggunaan kontrasepsi. Saran : Bagi Puskesmas Managaisaki, sosialisasi tentang keluarga kecil perlu ditingkatkan, untuk menjadi motivasi dalam merencanakan keluarga dimasa yang akan datang, Perlu kerjasama lintas sektor (Puskesmas dan BKKBN) untuk menyediakan subsidi biaya pembelian alat kontrasepsi dan jasa pelayanan agar memudahkan akses masyarakat terhadap penggunaan kontrasepsi

Evaluasi Program Pengendalian Penyakit Kusta Di Wilayah Kerja Puskesmas Lompentodea Kecamatan Parigi Barat Kabupaten Parigi Moutong

Penyakit kusta merupakan salah satu penyakit menular yang menimbulkan masalah yang sangat kompleks. Dimana prevalensi penyakit kusta di Kabupaten Parigi Moutong pada tiga tahun terakhir mengalami peningkatan yaitu pada tahun 2012 sebesar 2,6%, pada tahun 2013 sebesar 4,8% , dan 5,7% pada tahun 2014. Salah satu penyebab tingginya angka penemuan penderita kusta karena tidak adanya pelaksanaan penyuluhan kelompok. Tujuan penelitian ini untuk mengetahui pelaksanaan Program Pengendalian Penyakit Kusta di Wilayah Kerja Puskesmas Lompentodea Kecamatan Parigi Barat Kabupaten Parigi Moutong. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kualitatif. Jumlah informan keseluruhan adalah 6 informan yang terdiri 1 informan kunci (key informan), 1 Informan biasa, dan 4 Informan tambahan. Pengolahan data dalam penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan analisa isi (content analisis) dengan teknik matriks. Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa dari aspek input yakni program bisa berjalan dengan baik meskipun adanya keterbatasan SDM, dana dan fasilitas, Process dalam pelaksanaan program sudah sesuai dengan SOP yang sudah di tentukan oleh Dinas Kesehatan, output pada monitoring dan evaluasi pelaksaan program sudah berjalan baik dengan pelaporan yang dilakukan tiga bulan sekali. Diharapkan Dinas Kesehatan terkait untuk memaksimalkan dana untuk pelaksanaan program kusta sehingga input, process yang belum maksimal bisa teratasi dengan efektif dan efesien

Dynamic Mechanical and Gel Content Properties of Irradiated ENR/PVC Blends with TiO2 Nanofillers

Numerous studies reported on irradiated epoxidized natural rubber/polyvinyl chloride (ENR/PVC) blends and the blends were found miscible at all compositional range thus it offers a broad of opportunity in modifying the blend characteristic. Addition of low loading titanium dioxide (TiO2) nanofillers in the ENR/PVC blends has shown a remarkable increment in tensile strength. Thus, this study was initiated to address the effect of TiO2 nanofillers on ENR/PVC blends dynamic mechanical and gel content properties and its morphology upon exposure to electron beam irradiation. ENR/PVC blends with addition of 0, 2 and 6 phr TiO2 nanofillers were first blended in a mixing chamber before being irradiated by an electron beam accelerator at different 0-200 kGy irradiation doses. The influence of TiO2 nanofillers on the irradiation crosslinking of ENR/PVC blends was study based on the dynamic mechanical analysis which was carried out in determining the glass transition temperature and the storage modulus behavior of ENR/PVC blends incorporated with TiO2 nanofillers. Formations of irradiation crosslinking in the blend were investigated by gel content measurement. While, the TiO2 nanofillers distribution were examined by Transmission Electron Microscope (TEM). Upon irradiation, the ENR/PVC/6 phr TiO2 formed the highest value of gel fraction. For dynamic mechanical analysis, it was found that electron beam radiation increased the Tg of all the compositions. The relationship between the crosslinking and the stiffness of the nanocomposites also can be found in this study. The enhancement in the storage modulus and Tg at higher amount of TiO2 in the blend could be correlated to the enhancement of the irradiation-induced crosslinking in the nanocomposites characteristic and also with the higher agglomerations of TiO2 evidence shown from the TEM micrograph examination. Lastly, the dimensions of TiO2 in the blends were found less than 100 nm in diameter which indicates incorporation of TiO2 nanofillers in ENR/PVC blends is potentially to provide the nanocomposites features. Doi: 10.12777/ijse.6.1.24-30 [How to cite this article: Ramlee, N.A., Ratnam, C.T., Alias, N.H., Rahman, M.F.A.. 2014. Dynamic Mechanical and Gel Content Properties of Irradiated ENR/PVC blends with TiO2 Nanofillers. International Journal of Science and Engineering, 6(1),24-30. Doi: 10.12777/ijse.6.1.24-30

Efficacy of Allium sativum extract as post-harvest treatment of fruit rot of mango

Fruit rot caused by Lasiodiplodia species is among the most significant post-harvest fungal disease of mango fruit. The use of chemical synthetic fungicides to control plant diseases can contaminate the environment and affect human health. An alternative method to circumvent these problems is to use extracts from plants that can produce antifungal compounds. Aqueous extract of garlic (Allium sativum) was screened for its inhibitory effect against L. theobromae in vitro and it was shown to have antifungal activity by forming an inhibition zone. In addition, L. theobromae growing on garlic extract amended agar did not produce any conidia. Healthy unripe mango fruits were soaked in different concentration of garlic extract for different times. Soaking fruit for 4 hours in 100% concentration extract prevented lesion development. It is concluded that garlic extract can suppress growth of L. theobromae and improve the marketability of mango fruit without using chemical synthetic fungicides to control post-harvest diseases

Hemodynamic study on upper extremity: simulation on straight reverse saphenous vein graft

Artery reconstruction in upper extremities is rare performed compare to the incidence of reconstruction in lower extremities. In many cases, primary vascular repair was performed, whenever, otherwise, the interposition vein graft or venous bypass grafting were used in order to alleviate vascular occlusion. However, after grafting technique are applied, one or more of the digital arteries are blocked or severely narrowed because of mismatch of end-to-side or end-to-end reverse saphenous vein graft. The objective of this study was to understand the end-to-end blood flow influence on reverse saphenous vein graft with small diameter. The finite volume method was employed to model the 3-D blood flow pattern to determine the velocity, pressure gradient, flow, wall shear stress, flow resistance and longitudinal impedance (ZL). We expected that reverse saphenous vein graft behave hydraulically like provide straight graft. Furthermore longitudinal impedance modulus (ZL) is expected to be inverse proportional to small diameter

Emergency presentation of cancer and short-term mortality

Background:The short-term survival following a cancer diagnosis in England is lower than that in comparable countries, with the difference in excess mortality primarily occurring in the months immediately after diagnosis. We assess the impact of emergency presentation (EP) on the excess mortality in England over the course of the year following diagnosis. Methods:All colorectal and cervical cancers presenting in England and all breast, lung, and prostate cancers in the East of England in 2006-2008 are included. The variation in the likelihood of EP with age, stage, sex, co-morbidity, and income deprivation is modelled. The excess mortality over 0-1, 1-3, 3-6, and 6-12 months after diagnosis and its dependence on these case-mix factors and presentation route is then examined. Results:More advanced stage and older age are predictive of EP, as to a lesser extent are co-morbidity, higher income deprivation, and female sex. In the first month after diagnosis, we observe case-mix-adjusted excess mortality rate ratios of 7.5 (cervical), 5.9 (colorectal), 11.7 (breast ), 4.0 (lung), and 20.8 (prostate) for EP compared with non-EP. Conclusion:Individuals who present as an emergency experience high short-term mortality in all cancer types examined compared with non-EPs. This is partly a case-mix effect but EP remains predictive of short-term mortality even when age, stage, and co-morbidity are accounted for

Adolescent to Adolescent Transformation Program- Nurturing, Enhancing and Promoting Adolescents’ Healthy Habit (ATAP-NEPAH): Curbing Social Problems Among Adolescents in Kelantan Through Peer-To-Peer Health Education

The objectives of ATAP-NEPAH are to enhance and nurture healthy habits among adolescents as well as to empower adolescents in inculcating these healthy habits among them. Health education through peer-to-peer approach is used to instill the knowledge on important areas such as sexual and reproductive health, smoking, substance abuse, illegal street racing (rempit) and mental health. Specific modules were developed by experts (lecturers) in multidisciplinary fields in collaboration with Malaysian Association for Adolescent Health (MAAH), National Population and Family Development Board (NPFDB), Reproductive Health Association of Kelantan (REHAK) and Rhaudatus Sakinah Kelantan. The trained Medical Students Facilitator Team (MSFT) of USM became trainers to secondary one school students. The selected school students were trained by the medical students to become peer educators to their juniors and peers. There was improvement in the readiness level of peer educators, knowledge and attitude towards healthy habits and risky behaviors of other school students after the intervention

Socioeconomic inequalities in cancer survival in England after the NHS cancer plan

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic inequalities in survival were observed for many cancers in England during 1981-1999. The NHS Cancer Plan (2000) aimed to improve survival and reduce these inequalities. This study examines trends in the deprivation gap in cancer survival after implementation of the Plan. MATERIALS AND METHOD: We examined relative survival among adults diagnosed with 1 of 21 common cancers in England during 1996-2006, followed up to 31 December 2007. Three periods were defined: 1996-2000 (before the Cancer Plan), 2001-2003 (initialisation) and 2004-2006 (implementation). We estimated the difference in survival between the most deprived and most affluent groups (deprivation gap) at 1 and 3 years after diagnosis, and the change in the deprivation gap both within and between these periods. RESULTS: Survival improved for most cancers, but inequalities in survival were still wide for many cancers in 2006. Only the deprivation gap in 1-year survival narrowed slightly over time. A majority of the socioeconomic disparities in survival occurred soon after a cancer diagnosis, regardless of the cancer prognosis. CONCLUSION: The recently observed reduction in the deprivation gap was minor and limited to 1-year survival, suggesting that, so far, the Cancer Plan has little effect on those inequalities. Our findings highlight that earlier diagnosis and rapid access to optimal treatment should be ensured for all socioeconomic groups

Prevalence of PALB2 Mutations in Breast Cancer Patients in Multi-Ethnic Asian Population in Malaysia and Singapore

10.1371/journal.pone.0073638PLoS ONE88-POLN