389 research outputs found

    Climate change: challenges and opportunities for global health.

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    IMPORTANCE: Health is inextricably linked to climate change. It is important for clinicians to understand this relationship in order to discuss associated health risks with their patients and to inform public policy. OBJECTIVES: To provide new US-based temperature projections from downscaled climate modeling and to review recent studies on health risks related to climate change and the cobenefits of efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. DATA SOURCES, STUDY SELECTION, AND DATA SYNTHESIS: We searched PubMed and Google Scholar from 2009 to 2014 for articles related to climate change and health, focused on governmental reports, predictive models, and empirical epidemiological studies. Of the more than 250 abstracts reviewed, 56 articles were selected. In addition, we analyzed climate data averaged over 13 climate models and based future projections on downscaled probability distributions of the daily maximum temperature for 2046-2065. We also compared maximum daily 8-hour average ozone with air temperature data taken from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climate Data Center. RESULTS: By 2050, many US cities may experience more frequent extreme heat days. For example, New York and Milwaukee may have 3 times their current average number of days hotter than 32°C (90°F). High temperatures are also strongly associated with ozone exceedance days, for example, in Chicago, Illinois. The adverse health aspects related to climate change may include heat-related disorders, such as heat stress and economic consequences of reduced work capacity; respiratory disorders, including those exacerbated by air pollution and aeroallergens, such as asthma; infectious diseases, including vectorborne diseases and waterborne diseases, such as childhood gastrointestinal diseases; food insecurity, including reduced crop yields and an increase in plant diseases; and mental health disorders, such as posttraumatic stress disorder and depression, that are associated with natural disasters. Substantial health and economic cobenefits could be associated with reductions in fossil fuel combustion. For example, greenhouse gas emission policies may yield net economic benefit, with health benefits from air quality improvements potentially offsetting the cost of US and international carbon policies. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Evidence over the past 20 years indicates that climate change can be associated with adverse health outcomes. Health care professionals have an important role in understanding and communicating the related potential health concerns and the cobenefits from policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

    Intestinal Colonization Traits of Pandemic Multidrug-Resistant Escherichia coli ST131

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    Background. Epidemiological studies point to the gut as a key reservoir of multidrug resistant Escherichia coli multilocus sequence type 131 (ST131), a globally dominant pathogenic clone causing urinary tract and bloodstream infections. Here we report a detailed investigation of its intestinal lifestyle. Methods. Clinical ST131 isolates and type 1 fimbriae null mutants were assessed for colonization of human intestinal epithelia and in mouse intestinal colonization models. Mouse gut tissue underwent histologic analysis for pathology and ST131 localization. Key findings were corroborated in mucus-producing human cell lines and intestinal biopsy specimens. Results. ST131 strains adhered to and invaded human intestinal epithelial cells more than probiotic and commensal strains. The reference ST131 strain EC958 established persistent intestinal colonization in mice, and expression of type 1 fimbriae mediated higher colonization levels. Bacterial loads were highest in the distal parts of the mouse intestine and did not cause any obvious pathology. Further analysis revealed that EC958 could bind to both mucus and underlying human intestinal epithelia. Conclusions. ST131 strains can efficiently colonize the mammalian gut and persist long term. Type 1 fimbriae enhance ST131 intestinal colonization, suggesting that mannosides, currently developed as therapeutics for bladder infections and Crohn’s disease, could also be used to limit intestinal ST131 reservoirs

    Large Fugitive Methane Emissions From Urban Centers Along the U.S. East Coast

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    Urban emissions remain an underexamined part of the methane budget. Here we present and interpret aircraft observations of six old and leak‐prone major cities along the East Coast of the United States. We use direct observations of methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), ethane (C2H6), and their correlations to quantify CH4 emissions and attribute to natural gas. We find the five largest cities emit 0.85 (0.63, 1.12) Tg CH4/year, of which 0.75 (0.49, 1.10) Tg CH4/year is attributed to natural gas. Our estimates, which include all thermogenic methane sources including end use, are more than twice that reported in the most recent gridded EPA inventory, which does not include end‐use emissions. These results highlight that current urban inventory estimates of natural gas emissions are substantially low, either due to underestimates of leakage, lack of inclusion of end‐use emissions, or some combination thereof.Plain Language SummaryRecent efforts to quantify fugitive methane associated with the oil and gas sector, with a particular focus on production, have resulted in significant revisions upward of emission estimates. In comparison, however, there has been limited focus on urban methane emissions. Given the volume of gas distributed and used in cities, urban losses can impact national‐level emissions. In this study we use aircraft observations of methane, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and ethane to determine characteristic correlation slopes, enabling quantification of urban methane emissions and attribution to natural gas. We sample nearly 12% of the U.S. population and 4 of the 10 most populous cities, focusing on older, leak‐prone urban centers. Emission estimates are more than twice the total in the U.S. EPA inventory for these regions and are predominantly attributed to fugitive natural gas losses. Current estimates for methane emissions from the natural gas supply chain appear to require revision upward, in part possibly by including end‐use emissions, to account for these urban losses.Key PointsAircraft observations downwind of six major cities along the U.S. East Coast are used to estimate urban methane emissionsObserved urban methane estimates are about twice that reported in the Gridded EPA inventoryMethane emissions from natural gas (including end use) in five cities combined exceeds nationwide emissions estimate from local distributionPeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/151283/1/grl59329.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/151283/2/grl59329_am.pd

    The intertropical convergence zone modulates intense hurricane strikes on the western North Atlantic margin

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    © The Author(s), 2016. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Scientific Reports 6 (2016): 21728, doi:10.1038/srep21728Most Atlantic hurricanes form in the Main Development Region between 9°N to 20°N along the northern edge of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Previous research has suggested that meridional shifts in the ITCZ position on geologic timescales can modulate hurricane activity, but continuous and long-term storm records are needed from multiple sites to assess this hypothesis. Here we present a 3000 year record of intense hurricane strikes in the northern Bahamas (Abaco Island) based on overwash deposits in a coastal sinkhole, which indicates that the ITCZ has likely helped modulate intense hurricane strikes on the western North Atlantic margin on millennial to centennial-scales. The new reconstruction closely matches a previous reconstruction from Puerto Rico, and documents a period of elevated intense hurricane activity on the western North Atlantic margin from 2500 to 1000 years ago when paleo precipitation proxies suggest that the ITCZ occupied a more northern position. Considering that anthropogenic warming is predicted to be focused in the northern hemisphere in the coming century, these results provide a prehistoric analog that an attendant northern ITCZ shift in the future may again return the western North Atlantic margin to an active hurricane interval.This research was supported by NSF Awards: OCE-1519578, OCE-1356708, BCS-1118340

    ENSO and Pacific decadal variability in the Community Climate System Model Version 4

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    Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 25 (2012): 2622–2651, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00301.1.This study presents an overview of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and Pacific decadal variability (PDV) simulated in a multicentury preindustrial control integration of the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) at nominal 1° latitude–longitude resolution. Several aspects of ENSO are improved in CCSM4 compared to its predecessor CCSM3, including the lengthened period (3–6 yr), the larger range of amplitude and frequency of events, and the longer duration of La Niña compared to El Niño. However, the overall magnitude of ENSO in CCSM4 is overestimated by ~30%. The simulated ENSO exhibits characteristics consistent with the delayed/recharge oscillator paradigm, including correspondence between the lengthened period and increased latitudinal width of the anomalous equatorial zonal wind stress. Global seasonal atmospheric teleconnections with accompanying impacts on precipitation and temperature are generally well simulated, although the wintertime deepening of the Aleutian low erroneously persists into spring. The vertical structure of the upper-ocean temperature response to ENSO in the north and south Pacific displays a realistic seasonal evolution, with notable asymmetries between warm and cold events. The model shows evidence of atmospheric circulation precursors over the North Pacific associated with the “seasonal footprinting mechanism,” similar to observations. Simulated PDV exhibits a significant spectral peak around 15 yr, with generally realistic spatial pattern and magnitude. However, PDV linkages between the tropics and extratropics are weaker than observed.M. Alexander, A. Capotondi, and J. Scott’s participation was supported by a grant from the NSF Climate and Large-scale Dynamics Program. Y.-O. Kwon gratefully acknowledges support from a WHOI Heyman fellowship and a grant from the NSF Climate and Largescale Dynamics Program. The CESM project is supported by the National Science Foundation and the Office of Science (BER) of the U.S. Department of Energy.2012-10-1

    The hours matter: comparing indicators of US residential cooling from hourly versus daily climate variables

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    Cooling energy demand in buildings is rapidly increasing as climate warms. Current methods of estimating and predicting residential cooling demand are primarily based on daily temperature, which neglects intraday temperature variations. To determine whether large-scale cooling demand is substantially affected by intraday temperature variations, we conduct a thorough comparison between variable degree days (VDDs) derived from daily temperature data with variable degree hours (VDHs) derived from hourly temperature data during the summer seasons in the United States. The results imply that incorporating intraday variations in temperature will have substantial impacts on cooling estimation and prediction. A comparison of the historical (1990–2014) VDD and VDH calculated from ERA5 temperature data reveals that US summer cooling demand estimated from hourly temperature is 29%–45% higher than those estimated from daily temperature, with differences exceeding 60% when hourly solar radiation is considered. This occurs because the hourly calculations captures the ‘hot hours’ of the mild days. Future scenario analysis, using the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections, indicates that under the medium greenhouse gas emissions pathway (SSP2-45), US summer VDH and VDD are expected to increase by approximately 45% and 100% by the late century (2081–2100). This suggests that, daily-based predictions generally project cooling demand growth at twice the rate of hourly-based predictions, as the daily method accounts for increases in both high and low temperatures regardless of whether they exceed the baseline, while the hourly method, with its finer temporal resolution, includes only temperatures that surpass the baseline. Such effects are seen across most areas of the US. Our analysis underscores the significance of incorporating temperature data at higher temporal resolution in estimating and predicting cooling demand, which is essential for effectively implementing various measures to achieve energy conservation and climate goals

    A serious game enhancing social tenants' behavioral change towards energy efficiency

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    The energy consumption of the current building stock represents about 40% of the total final energy consumption in Europe. New gamification techniques may play a significant role in helping users adopt new and more energy efficient behaviours. This paper presents the advances achieved within the context of the EU-funded project EnerGAware - Energy Game for Awareness of energy efficiency in social housing communities. The main objective of the project, funded by the European Union under the Horizon2020 programme, is to reduce the energy consumption and carbon emissions in a sample of European social housing by changing the energy efficiency behaviour of the social tenants through the implementation of a serious game linked to the real energy use of the participants' homes
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