Extreme events in the Mediterranean area: A mixed deterministic-statistical approach

Statistical inference suffers for severe limitations when applied to extreme meteo-climatic events. A fundamental theorem proposes a constructive theory for a “universal” distribution law (the Generalized Extreme Value distribution) of extremes. Use of this theorem and of its derivations is nowadays quite common. However, when applying it, the selected events should be real extremes. In practical applications a major source of errors is the fact that there is no strict criterion for selecting extremes and, in order to “fatten” the statistical sample very “mild” selection criteria are often used. The theorem in question applies to stationary processes. When a trend is introduced, inference becomes even more problematic. Experience shows that any available a priori knowledge concerning the system can play a fundamental role in the analysis, in particular if it lowers the dimensionality of the parameter space to be explored. The inference procedures serve, then, the purpose of testing the reliability of inductive hypothesis, rather than proving them. Within the above general context, analysis of the hypothesis that the frequency and/or intensity of extreme weather events in the Mediterranean area may be changing is proposed. The analysis is based on a combined deterministic-statistical approach: dynamical analysis of intense perturbations is combined with statistical techniques in order to try to formulate the problem in such a way that meaningful conclusion may be achieved

Capsule Networks with Routing Annealing

International audienc

A multiscale approach for precipitation verification applied to the FORALPS case studies

International audienceMultiscale methods, such as the power spectrum, are suitable diagnostic tools for studying the second order statistics of a gridded field. For instance, in the case of Numerical Weather Prediction models, a drop in the power spectrum for a given scale indicates the inability of the model to reproduce the variance of the phenomenon below the correspondent spatial scale. Hence, these statistics provide an insight into the real resolution of a gridded field and must be accurately known for interpolation and downscaling purposes. In this work, belonging to the EU INTERREG IIIB Alpine Space FORALPS project, the power spectra of the precipitation fields for two intense rain events, which occurred over the north-eastern alpine region, have been studied in detail. A drop in the power spectrum at the shortest scales (about 30 km) has been found, as well as a strong matching between the precipitation spectrum and the spectrum of the orography. Furthermore, it has also been shown how the spectra help understand the behavior of the skill scores traditionally used in Quantitative Precipitation Forecast verification, as these are sensitive to the amount of small scale detail present in the fields

HEMP: High-order entropy minimization for neural network compression

We formulate the entropy of a quantized artificial neural network as a differentiable function that can be plugged as a regularization term into the cost function minimized by gradient descent. Our formulation scales efficiently beyond the first order and is agnostic of the quantization scheme. The network can then be trained to minimize the entropy of the quantized parameters, so that they can be optimally compressed via entropy coding. We experiment with our entropy formulation at quantizing and compressing well-known network architectures over multiple datasets. Our approach compares favorably over similar methods, enjoying the benefits of higher order entropy estimate, showing flexibility towards non-uniform quantization (we use Lloyd-max quantization), scalability towards any entropy order to be minimized and efficiency in terms of compression. We show that HEMP is able to work in synergy with other approaches aiming at pruning or quantizing the model itself, delivering significant benefits in terms of storage size compressibility without harming the model's performance

The mobility of Atlantic baric depressions leading to intense precipitation over Italy: a preliminary statistical analysis

International audienceThe speed of Atlantic surface depressions, occurred during the autumn and winter seasons and that lead to intense precipitation over Italy from 1951 to 2000, was investigated. Italy was divided into 5 regions as documented in previous climatological studies (based on Principal Component Analysis). Intense precipitation events were selected on the basis of in situ rain gauge data and clustered according to the region that they hit. For each intense precipitation event we tried to identify an associated surface depression and we tracked it, within a large domain covering the Mediterranean and Atlantic regions, from its formation to cyclolysis in order to estimate its speed. "Depression speeds" were estimated with 6-h resolution and clustered into slow and non-slow classes by means of a threshold, coinciding with the first quartile of speed distribution and depression centre speeds were associated with their positions. Slow speeds occurring over an area including Italy and the western Mediterranean basin showed frequencies higher than 25%, for all the Italian regions but one. The probability of obtaining by chance the observed more than 25% success rate was estimated by means of a binomial distribution. The statistical reliability of the result is confirmed for only one region. For Italy as a whole, results were confirmed at 95% confidence level. Stability of the statistical inference, with respect to errors in estimating depression speed and changes in the threshold of slow depressions, was analysed and essentially confirmed the previous results

Ciguatera mini review: 21st century environmental challenges and the interdisciplinary research efforts rising to meet them

Globally, the livelihoods of over a billion people are affected by changes to marine eco-systems, both structurally and systematically. Resources and ecosystem services, provided by the marine environment, contribute nutrition, income, and health benefits for communities. One threat to these securities is ciguatera poisoning; worldwide, the most commonly reported non‐bacterial seafood‐related illness. Ciguatera is caused by the consumption of (primarily) finfish contaminated with ciguatoxins, potent neurotoxins produced by benthic single‐cell microalgae. When consumed, ciguatoxins are biotransformed and can bioaccumulate throughout the food‐web via complex path-ways. Ciguatera‐derived food insecurity is particularly extreme for small island‐nations, where fear of intoxication can lead to fishing restrictions by region, species, or size. Exacerbating these com-plexities are anthropogenic or natural changes occurring in global marine habitats, e.g., climate change, greenhouse‐gas induced physical oceanic changes, overfishing, invasive species, and even the international seafood trade. Here we provide an overview of the challenges and opportunities of the 21st century regarding the many facets of ciguatera, including the complex nature of this illness, the biological/environmental factors affecting the causative organisms, their toxins, vectors, detection methods, human‐health oriented responses, and ultimately an outlook towards the future. Ciguatera research efforts face many social and environmental challenges this century. However, several future‐oriented goals are within reach, including digital solutions for seafood supply chains, identifying novel compounds and methods with the potential for advanced diagnostics, treatments, and prediction capabilities. The advances described herein provide confidence that the tools are now available to answer many of the remaining questions surrounding ciguatera and therefore protection measures can become more accurate and routine

Treating Thalassemia Patients with Luspatercept: An Expert Opinion Based on Current Evidence

Luspatercept has recently been approved for the treatment of beta-thalassemia and its use in clinical practice has been increasing. As it is the first erythroid maturation drug available for this diagnosis, the expertise about its use is still limited. To address this point, and to promote awareness and guide the clinical use of luspatercept in beta-thalassemia, this paper was developed as a consensus by experts from the Italian Society of Thalassemia and Hemoglobinopathies (SITE). After a brief presentation of the core features of luspatercept, a comprehensive set of questions is addressed, covering relevant aspects for the practical management of this new therapeutic option

Therapy of age-related exudative macular degeneration with anti-vascular endothelial growth factor drugs: An Italian real life study

Aim: To evaluate the real utilization of ranibizumab and aflibercept in the daily management of patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) treated at the Eye Clinic of Campania University L.Vanvitelli. Background: Therapy with anti-vascular endothelial growth factor represents the gold standard in wet age-related macular degeneration. There are nonreal life italian studies of this therapy in the literature. Objective: To analyze in our sample the post-therapy variations of best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) and central retinal thickness (CRT) observed at the end of a 12-month follow-up period. Methods: This real-life study analyzes 109 patients that underwent monthly checks for the first 4 months and then every 2 months until the end of the 12-month follow-up. The sample was first analyzed in its entirety, subsequently subdivided into 3 groups based on baseline BCVA, age, and the number of intravitreal injections performed, in order to identify possible predictive elements of the anti-VEGF response. Results: On average, patients underwent 4.16 ± 1.58 intravitreal anti-VEGF injections in 1 year. At the end of the 12-month follow-up, the patients’ average BCVA increased from 33.01 letters to 33.75 letters (+0.74 ± 9,4 letters), while the average CRT decreased from 346.86 µm to 265.39 µm (-81.47 ± 121 µm). Conclusion: The study shows the efficacy of anti-VEGF therapy in the stabilization of BCVA in nAMD, confirming the differences in visual outcomes compared to clinical trials, mainly for economic-organizational reasons