Reply to Comment on "Cosmic rays, carbon dioxide, and climate"

In our analysis [Rahmstorf et al., 2004], we arrived at two main conclusions: the data of Shaviv and Veizer [2003] do not show a significant correlation of cosmic ray flux (CRF) and climate, and the authors' estimate of climate sensitivity to CO2 based on a simple regression analysis is questionable. After careful consideration of Shaviv and Veizer's comment, we want to uphold and reaffirm these conclusions. Concerning the question of correlation, we pointed out that a correlation arose only after several adjustments to the data, including shifting one of the four CRF peaks and stretching the time scale. To calculate statistical significance, we first need to compute the number of independent data points in the CRF and temperature curves being correlated, accounting for their autocorrelation. A standard estimate [Quenouille, 1952] of the number of effective data points is urn:x-wiley:00963941:media:eost14930:eost14930-math-0001 where N is the total number of data points and r1, r2 are the autocorrelations of the two series. For the curves of Shaviv and Veizer [2003], the result is NEFF = 4.8. This is consistent with the fact that these are smooth curves with four humps, and with the fact that for CRF the position of the four peaks is determined by four spiral arm crossings or four meteorite clusters, respectively; that is, by four independent data points. The number of points that enter the calculation of statistical significance of a linear correlation is (NEFF− 2), since any curves based on only two points show perfect correlation; at least three independent points are needed for a meaningful result

Controls on the movement and composition of firn air at the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide

We sampled interstitial air from the perennial snowpack (firn) at a site near the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide (WAIS-D) and analyzed the air samples for a wide variety of gas species and their isotopes. We find limited convective influence (1.4–5.2 m, depending on detection method) in the shallow firn, gravitational enrichment of heavy species throughout the diffusive column in general agreement with theoretical expectations, a ~10 m thick lock-in zone beginning at ~67 m, and a total firn thickness consistent with predictions of Kaspers et al. (2004). Our modeling work shows that the air has an age spread (spectral width) of 4.8 yr for CO<sub>2</sub> at the firn-ice transition. We also find that advection of firn air due to the 22 cm yr<sup>−1</sup> ice-equivalent accumulation rate has a minor impact on firn air composition, causing changes that are comparable to other modeling uncertainties and intrinsic sample variability. Furthermore, estimates of Δage (the gas age/ice age difference) at WAIS-D appear to be largely unaffected by bubble closure above the lock-in zone. Within the lock-in zone, small gas species and their isotopes show evidence of size-dependent fractionation due to permeation through the ice lattice with a size threshold of 0.36 nm, as at other sites. We also see an unequivocal and unprecedented signal of oxygen isotope fractionation within the lock-in zone, which we interpret as the mass-dependent expression of a size-dependent fractionation process

Pulse oximetry in the oesophagus

Pulse oximetry has been one of the most significant technological advances in clinical monitoring in the last two decades. Pulse oximetry is a non-invasive photometric technique that provides information about the arterial blood oxygen saturation (SpO(2)) and heart rate, and has widespread clinical applications. When peripheral perfusion is poor, as in states of hypovolaemia, hypothermia and vasoconstriction, oxygenation readings become unreliable or cease. The problem arises because conventional pulse oximetry sensors must be attached to the most peripheral parts of the body, such as finger, ear or toe, where pulsatile flow is most easily compromised. Since central blood flow may be preferentially preserved, this review explores a new alternative site, the oesophagus, for monitoring blood oxygen saturation by pulse oximetry. This review article presents the basic physics, technology and applications of pulse oximetry including photoplethysmography. The limitations of this technique are also discussed leading to the proposed development of the oesophageal pulse oximeter. In the majority, the report will be focused on the description of a new oesophageal photoplethysmographic/SpO(2) probe, which was developed to investigate the suitability of the oesophagus as an alternative monitoring site for the continuous measurement of SpO(2) in cases of poor peripheral circulation. The article concludes with a review of reported clinical investigations of the oesophageal pulse oximeter

The accuracy of pulse oximetry in emergency department patients with severe sepsis and septic shock: a retrospective cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Pulse oximetry is routinely used to continuously and noninvasively monitor arterial oxygen saturation (SaO₂) in critically ill patients. Although pulse oximeter oxygen saturation (SpO₂) has been studied in several patient populations, including the critically ill, its accuracy has never been studied in emergency department (ED) patients with severe sepsis and septic shock. Sepsis results in characteristic microcirculatory derangements that could theoretically affect pulse oximeter accuracy. The purposes of the present study were twofold: 1) to determine the accuracy of pulse oximetry relative to SaO2 obtained from ABG in ED patients with severe sepsis and septic shock, and 2) to assess the impact of specific physiologic factors on this accuracy.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This analysis consisted of a retrospective cohort of 88 consecutive ED patients with severe sepsis who had a simultaneous arterial blood gas and an SpO₂value recorded. Adult ICU patients that were admitted from any Calgary Health Region adult ED with a pre-specified, sepsis-related admission diagnosis between October 1, 2005 and September 30, 2006, were identified. Accuracy (SpO₂- SaO₂) was analyzed by the method of Bland and Altman. The effects of hypoxemia, acidosis, hyperlactatemia, anemia, and the use of vasoactive drugs on bias were determined.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The cohort consisted of 88 subjects, with a mean age of 57 years (19 - 89). The mean difference (SpO₂- SaO₂) was 2.75% and the standard deviation of the differences was 3.1%. Subgroup analysis demonstrated that hypoxemia (SaO₂< 90) significantly affected pulse oximeter accuracy. The mean difference was 4.9% in hypoxemic patients and 1.89% in non-hypoxemic patients (p < 0.004). In 50% (11/22) of cases in which SpO₂was in the 90-93% range the SaO2 was <90%. Though pulse oximeter accuracy was not affected by acidoisis, hyperlactatementa, anemia or vasoactive drugs, these factors worsened precision.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Pulse oximetry overestimates ABG-determined SaO₂by a mean of 2.75% in emergency department patients with severe sepsis and septic shock. This overestimation is exacerbated by the presence of hypoxemia. When SaO₂needs to be determined with a high degree of accuracy arterial blood gases are recommended.</p

Fluorescent carbon dioxide indicators

Over the last decade, fluorescence has become the dominant tool in biotechnology and medical imaging. These exciting advances have been underpinned by the advances in time-resolved techniques and instrumentation, probe design, chemical / biochemical sensing, coupled with our furthered knowledge in biology. Complementary volumes 9 and 10, Advanced Concepts of Fluorescence Sensing: Small Molecule Sensing and Advanced Concepts of Fluorescence Sensing: Macromolecular Sensing, aim to summarize the current state of the art in fluorescent sensing. For this reason, Drs. Geddes and Lakowicz have invited chapters, encompassing a broad range of fluorescence sensing techniques. Some chapters deal with small molecule sensors, such as for anions, cations, and CO2, while others summarize recent advances in protein-based and macromolecular sensors. The Editors have, however, not included DNA or RNA based sensing in this volume, as this were reviewed in Volume 7 and is to be the subject of a more detailed volume in the near future

Ice core measurements of 14CH4 show no evidence of methane release from methane hydrates or old permafrost carbon during a large warming event 11,600 years ago

Thawing permafrost and marine methane hydrate destabilization in the Arctic and elsewhere have been proposed as large sources of methane to the atmosphere in the future warming world. To evaluate this hypothesis it is useful to ask whether such methane releases happened during past warming events. The two major abrupt warming events of the last deglaciation, Oldest Dryas - Bølling (OD-B, ≈ 14,500 years ago) and Younger Dryas - Preboreal (YD-PB; ≈11,600 years ago), were associated with large (up to 50%) increases in atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations. The sources of these large warming-driven CH4 increases remain incompletely understood, with possible contributions from tropical and boreal wetlands, thawing permafrost as well as marine CH4 hydrates. We present new measurements of 14C of paleoatmospheric CH4 over the YD-PB transition from ancient ice outcropping at Taylor Glacier, Antarctica. 14C can unambiguously identify CH4 emissions from "old carbon" sources, such as permafrost and CH4 hydrates. The only prior study of paleoatmospheric 14CH4 (from Greenland ice) suggested that wetlands were the main driver of the YD-PB CH4 increase, but the results were weakened by an unexpected and poorly understood 14CH4 component from in situ cosmogenic production directly in near-surface ice. In this new study, we have been able to accurately characterize and correct for the cosmogenic 14CH4 component. All samples from before, during and after the abrupt warming and associated CH4 increase yielded 14CH4 values that are consistent with 14C of atmospheric CO2 at that time, indicating a purely contemporaneous methane source. These new measurements rule out the possibility of large CH4 releases to the atmosphere from methane hydrates or old permafrost carbon in response to the large and rapid YD-PB warming. To the extent that the characteristics of the YD-PB warming are comparable to those of the current anthropogenic warming, our measurements suggest that large future atmospheric methane increases from old carbon sources in the Arctic are unlikely. Instead, our measurements indicate that global wetlands will likely respond to the warming with increased methane emissions. © European Geosciences UnionYellow Posters session, Y7

Overestimate of Committed Warming

Palaeoclimate variations are an essential component in constraining future projections of climate change as a function of increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The Earth System Sensitivity (ESS) describes the multi-millennial response of Earth (in terms of global mean temperature) to a doubling of CO2 concentrations. A recent study used a correlation of inferred temperatures and radiative forcing from greenhouse gases over the past 800,000 years to estimate the ESS from present day CO2 is about 9 degrees C, and to imply a long-term commitment of 3-7 degrees C even if greenhouse gas levels remain at present-day concentrations. However, we demonstrate that the methodology of ref. 2 does not reliably estimate the ESS in the presence of orbital forcing of ice age cycles and therefore conclude that the inferred present-day committed warming is considerably overestimated

Alterations in cerebral blood flow and cerebrovascular reactivity during 14 days at 5050 m

Upon ascent to high altitude, cerebral blood flow (CBF) rises substantially before returning to sea-level values. The underlying mechanisms for these changes are unclear. We examined three hypotheses: (1) the balance of arterial blood gases upon arrival at and across 2 weeks of living at 5050 m will closely relate to changes in CBF; (2) CBF reactivity to steady-state changes in CO2 will be reduced following this 2 week acclimatisation period, and (3) reductions in CBF reactivity to CO2 will be reflected in an augmented ventilatory sensitivity to CO2. We measured arterial blood gases, middle cerebral artery blood flow velocity (MCAv, index of CBF) and ventilation () at rest and during steady-state hyperoxic hypercapnia (7% CO2) and voluntary hyperventilation (hypocapnia) at sea level and then again following 2–4, 7–9 and 12–15 days of living at 5050 m. Upon arrival at high altitude, resting MCAv was elevated (up 31 ± 31%; P < 0.01; vs. sea level), but returned to sea-level values within 7–9 days. Elevations in MCAv were strongly correlated (R2= 0.40) with the change in ratio (i.e. the collective tendency of arterial blood gases to cause CBF vasodilatation or constriction). Upon initial arrival and after 2 weeks at high altitude, cerebrovascular reactivity to hypercapnia was reduced (P < 0.05), whereas hypocapnic reactivity was enhanced (P < 0.05 vs. sea level). Ventilatory response to hypercapnia was elevated at days 2–4 (P < 0.05 vs. sea level, 4.01 ± 2.98 vs. 2.09 ± 1.32 l min−1 mmHg−1). These findings indicate that: (1) the balance of arterial blood gases accounts for a large part of the observed variability (∼40%) leading to changes in CBF at high altitude; (2) cerebrovascular reactivity to hypercapnia and hypocapnia is differentially affected by high-altitude exposure and remains distorted during partial acclimatisation, and (3) alterations in cerebrovascular reactivity to CO2 may also affect ventilatory sensitivity