Non-parametric Estimation of Stochastic Differential Equations with Sparse Gaussian Processes

The application of Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) to the analysis of temporal data has attracted increasing attention, due to their ability to describe complex dynamics with physically interpretable equations. In this paper, we introduce a non-parametric method for estimating the drift and diffusion terms of SDEs from a densely observed discrete time series. The use of Gaussian processes as priors permits working directly in a function-space view and thus the inference takes place directly in this space. To cope with the computational complexity that requires the use of Gaussian processes, a sparse Gaussian process approximation is provided. This approximation permits the efficient computation of predictions for the drift and diffusion terms by using a distribution over a small subset of pseudo-samples. The proposed method has been validated using both simulated data and real data from economy and paleoclimatology. The application of the method to real data demonstrates its ability to capture the behaviour of complex systems

Calibración de ítems vía expertos utilizando Moodle

Calibrar un conjunto de ítems mediante el juicio de expertos es un proceso que consiste en establecer en una métrica común la dificultad de cada ítem partiendo de una muestra de datos que ha sido recogida previamente a individuos especialistas en el tema sobre el que versan los ítems y que contiene estimaciones sobre el nivel de dificultad de cada uno de ellos. Este proceso de calibración no es una tarea simple, pues normalmente implica repartir el conjunto de ítems en distintos tipos de cuestionarios a distribuir entre los expertos, puede ser necesario que algunos ítems se repitan en varios cuestionarios y es conveniente comprobar que el valor estimado de la dificultad se hace sobre ítems no anómalos y se basa en las aportaciones de expertos fiables. Además, se deben consensuar los criterios, a veces dispares, de los expertos consultados. Este artículo se centra en la construcción y calibración del banco de ítems a partir del juicio de expertos de una manera electrónica y describe un procedimiento para este tipo de calibración utilizando una plataforma educativa web: Moodle. En la actualidad, Moodle es uno de los paquetes de software libre más populares para la creación de cursos y sitios Web basados en Internet, siendo utilizado por instituciones educativas a nivel mundial, para ofrecer formación online

EOS analysis of lower extremity segmental torsion in children and young adults

Introduction Lower limb torsion varies substantially among healthy children during growth. Values reported in the literature to date have been obtained using semi-quantitative clinical or 2D measurement methods. Quantitative 3D measurement would help determine the physiological range of lower limb torsion. Low-dose stereoradiography with 3D reconstruction provides a good alternative. Its use increases in pediatrics because of radiation minimization. Previous studies have shown accurate and reproducible results of lower limbs reconstruction in adults and children but the torsional parameters haven’t been measured yet. The present study reports the values of lower limb segmental torsion and its course during growth in a cohort of healthy children and young adults using the EOS low-dose biplanar X-ray. Hypothesis EOS 3D reconstruction is an accurate and reproducible method to measure the torsional parameters in children. Materials and methods Femoral torsion (FT) and tibial torsion (TT) were studied on 114 volunteers (228 lower limbs) from 6 to 30 years of age divided by age into 5 groups. The EOS™ acquisitions were obtained in subjects standing with their feet offset. Results Mean FT decreased during growth, passing from 21.6° to 18°, whereas mean TT increased from 26.8° to 34.7°. There was a statistically significant difference between the 2 extreme age groups, but no difference was found between any other age groups. The ICC for intra-observer reproducibility was 0.96 and 0.95 for FT and TT for the first operator, and 0.79 and 0.83 for the second operator respectively. The ICC for inter-observer reproducibility was 0.84 and 0.82 respectively. Discussion The course of lower limb segmental torsion observed was consistent with literature reports based upon clinical and 2D measurements. 3D reconstruction of EOS low-dose biplanar imaging appears to be a safe and reliable tool for lower limbs measurements, especially for investigating lower limb segmental torsion in children and adults

Prevalence of hip dislocation among children with cerebral palsy in regions with and without a surveillance programme: a cross sectional study in Sweden and Norway

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hip dislocation is a serious complication among children with cerebral palsy (CP). The aim of this study was to compare the prevalence of hip dislocation among children with CP in an area providing regular care with an area providing hip surveillance services.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This is a cross-sectional study in seven Norwegian counties providing regular care and one Swedish healthcare region where a hip surveillance programme was introduced in 1994. Data were provided by the Norwegian Cerebral Palsy Register and the CP Register in Southern Sweden. Children born 1996 - 2003 with moderate to severe CP, defined as Gross Motor Classification System (GMFCS) levels III - V, were included. In all, 119 Norwegian and 136 Swedish children fulfilled the criteria. In Norway, data on hip operations and radiographs of the hips were collected from medical records, while these data are collected routinely in the Swedish register. The hip migration percentage was measured on the recent radiographs. Hip dislocation was defined as a migration percent of 100%.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The proportion of children at GMFCS levels III - V was 34% in the Norwegian and 38% in the Swedish population. In the Norwegian population, hip dislocation was diagnosed in 18 children (15.1%; CI: 9.8 - 22.6) compared with only one child (0.7%; 95% CI: 0.01 - 4.0) in Southern Sweden (p = < 0.001). Hip surgery was performed in 53 (44.5%) of the Norwegian children and in 43 (32%) of the Swedish children (p = 0.03). The total number of hip operations was 65 in Norway and 63 in Sweden. Norwegian children were first operated at a mean age of 7.6 years (SD: 2.9) compared with 5.7 years (SD: 2.3) in Sweden (p = 0.001).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The surveillance programme reduced the number of hip dislocations and the proportion of children undergoing hip surgery was lower. However, with the surveillance programme the first operation was performed at a younger age. Our results strongly support the effectiveness of a specifically designed follow-up programme for the prevention of hip dislocation in children with CP.</p

Asymptotic properties of minimum distance estimators dependent on covariables.

En este trabajo se obtienen propiedades de consistencia y normalidad asintótica para el estimador no paramétrico de la función de regresión (m(x)) resultante de la extensión de la metodología de mínima distancia de Cramer-von Mises al contexto de la estimación de curvas. Se hacen algunas consideraciones acerca de la robustez del estimador resultante en base a la función de influencia local (LIF) y se realiza un estudio de Monte Carlo comparativo con otros métodos de estimación.In this paper consistency and asymptotic normality are obtained for a class of nonparametric regression function estimators arising from the extension of the minimum Cramer-von Mises distance methodology to the context of curve estimation. Some considerations about the robustness of these estimators are made, based on the concept of local influence function (LIF). Also, we present a Monte Carlo study for the comparison between these estimators and other methods of estimation