Centralized versus Decentralized Taxation of Mobile Polluting Firms

We consider a world in which a mobile polluting firm must locate in one of two regions. The regions differ in two dimensions: their marginal cost of pollution and the production cost of the firm. It is shown that under incomplete information on regional marginal costs of pollution, fiscal competition may lead to the sub-optimal location of the firm. We also show that under incomplete information, a sub-optimal location is less likely under centralized than under decentralized taxation. Nous étudions un monde dans lequel une firme polluante mobile cherche à se localiser dans une de deux régions données. Les régions présentent des différences quant à leur coût marginal des émissions polluantes et quant à leur coût de production. Il est démontré que dans un contexte d'information incomplète sur les coûts marginaux de pollution des régions, la concurrence fiscale peut mener à une localisation non-optimale de la firme. Il est également démontré que la centralisation de la taxation réduit la probabilité d'une localisation non-optimale.Fiscal Competition, Location, Pollution

Propagation dynamics on networks featuring complex topologies

Analytical description of propagation phenomena on random networks has flourished in recent years, yet more complex systems have mainly been studied through numerical means. In this paper, a mean-field description is used to coherently couple the dynamics of the network elements (nodes, vertices, individuals...) on the one hand and their recurrent topological patterns (subgraphs, groups...) on the other hand. In a SIS model of epidemic spread on social networks with community structure, this approach yields a set of ODEs for the time evolution of the system, as well as analytical solutions for the epidemic threshold and equilibria. The results obtained are in good agreement with numerical simulations and reproduce random networks behavior in the appropriate limits which highlights the influence of topology on the processes. Finally, it is demonstrated that our model predicts higher epidemic thresholds for clustered structures than for equivalent random topologies in the case of networks with zero degree correlation.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures, 1 Appendix. Published in Phys. Rev. E (mistakes in the PRE version are corrected here

Propagation on networks: an exact alternative perspective

By generating the specifics of a network structure only when needed (on-the-fly), we derive a simple stochastic process that exactly models the time evolution of susceptible-infectious dynamics on finite-size networks. The small number of dynamical variables of this birth-death Markov process greatly simplifies analytical calculations. We show how a dual analytical description, treating large scale epidemics with a Gaussian approximations and small outbreaks with a branching process, provides an accurate approximation of the distribution even for rather small networks. The approach also offers important computational advantages and generalizes to a vast class of systems.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figure

MS 2053.7-0449: Confirmation of a bimodal mass distribution from strong gravitational lensing

We present the first strong lensing study of the mass distribution in the cluster MS 2053-04 based on HST archive data. This massive, X-ray luminous cluster has a redshift z=0.583, and it is composed of two structures that are gravitationally bound to each other. The cluster has one multiply imaged system constituted by a double gravitational arc. We have performed a parametric strong lensing mass reconstruction using NFW density profiles to model the cluster potential. We also included perturbations from 23 galaxies, modeled like elliptical singular isothermal sphere, that are approximately within 1'x1' around the cluster center. These galaxies were constrained in both the geometric and dynamical parameters with observational data. Our analysis predicts a third image which is slightly demagnified. We found a candidate for this counter-image near the expected position and with the same F702W-F814W colors as the gravitational arcs in the cluster. The results from the strong lensing model shows the complex structure in this cluster, the asymmetry and the elongation in the mass distribution, and are consistent with previous spectrophotometric results that indicate that the cluster has a bimodal mass distribution. Finally, the derived mass profile was used to estimate the mass within the arcs and for comparison with X-ray estimates.Comment: To be published in ApJ (accepted

Epidemics on contact networks: a general stochastic approach

Dynamics on networks is considered from the perspective of Markov stochastic processes. We partially describe the state of the system through network motifs and infer any missing data using the available information. This versatile approach is especially well adapted for modelling spreading processes and/or population dynamics. In particular, the generality of our systematic framework and the fact that its assumptions are explicitly stated suggests that it could be used as a common ground for comparing existing epidemics models too complex for direct comparison, such as agent-based computer simulations. We provide many examples for the special cases of susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) and susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) dynamics (e.g., epidemics propagation) and we observe multiple situations where accurate results may be obtained at low computational cost. Our perspective reveals a subtle balance between the complex requirements of a realistic model and its basic assumptions.Comment: Main document: 16 pages, 7 figures. Electronic Supplementary Material (included): 6 pages, 1 tabl

Interactions between Genetic, Prenatal, Cortisol, and Parenting Influences on Adolescent Substance Use and Frequency:A TRAILS Study

INTRODUCTION: Dynamic relations between genetic, hormone, and pre- and postnatal environments are theorized as critically important for adolescent substance use but are rarely tested in multifactorial models. This study assessed the impact of interactions of genetic risk and cortisol reactivity with prenatal and parenting influences on both any and frequency of adolescent substance use. METHODS: Data are from the TRacking Adolescents' Individual Lives Survey (TRAILS), a prospective longitudinal, multi-rater study of 2,230 Dutch adolescents. Genetic risk was assessed via 3 substance-specific polygenic scores. Mothers retrospectively reported prenatal risk when adolescents were 11 years old. Adolescents rated their parents' warmth and hostility at age 11. Salivary cortisol reactivity was measured in response to a social stress task at age 16. Adolescents' self-reported cigarette, alcohol, and cannabis use frequency at age 16. RESULTS: A multivariate hurdle regression model showed that polygenic risk for smoking, alcohol, and cannabis predicted any use of each substance, respectively, but predicted more frequent use only for smoking. Blunted cortisol reactivity predicted any use and more frequent use for all 3 outcomes. There were 2 interactions: blunted cortisol reactivity exacerbated the association of polygenic risk with any smoking and the association of prenatal risk with any alcohol use. CONCLUSION: Polygenic risk seems of importance for early use but less so for frequency of use, whereas blunted cortisol reactivity was correlated with both. Blunted cortisol reactivity may also catalyze early risks for substance use, though to a limited degree. Gene-environment interactions play no role in the context of this multifactorial model

Describing ancient horizontal gene transfers at the nucleotide and gene levels by comparative pathogenicity island genometrics

Motivation: Lateral gene transfer is a major mechanism contributing to bacterial genome dynamics and pathovar emergence via pathogenicity island (PAI) spreading. However, since few of these genomic exchanges are experimentally reproducible, it is difficult to establish evolutionary scenarios for the successive PAI transmissions between bacterial genera. Methods initially developed at the gene and/or nucleotide level for genomics, i.e. comparisons of concatenated sequences, ortholog frequency, gene order or dinucleotide usage, were combined and applied here to homologous PAIs: we call this approach comparative PAI genometrics. Results: YAPI, a Yersinia PAI, and related islands were compared with measure evolutionary relationships between related modules. Through use of our genometric approach designed for tracking codon usage adaptation and gene phylogeny, an ancient inter-genus PAI transfer was oriented for the first time by characterizing the genomic environment in which the ancestral island emerged and its subsequent transfers to other bacterial genera. Contact: [email protected] Supplementary informatio

Is Gravitational Lensing by Intercluster Filaments Always Negligible?

Intercluster filaments negligibly contribute to the weak lensing signal in general relativity (GR), $\gamma_{N}\sim 10^{-4}-10^{-3}$. In the context of relativistic modified Newtonian dynamics (MOND) introduced by Bekenstein, however, a single filament inclined by $\approx 45^\circ$ from the line of sight can cause substantial distortion of background sources pointing towards the filament's axis ($\kappa=\gamma=(1-A^{-1})/2\sim 0.01$); this is rigorous for infinitely long uniform filaments, but also qualitatively true for short filaments ($\sim 30$Mpc), and even in regions where the projected matter density of the filament is equal to zero. Since galaxies and galaxy clusters are generally embedded in filaments or are projected on such structures, this contribution complicates the interpretation of the weak lensing shear map in the context of MOND. While our analysis is of mainly theoretical interest providing order-of-magnitude estimates only, it seems safe to conclude that when modeling systems with anomalous weak lensing signals, e.g. the "bullet cluster" of Clowe et al., the "cosmic train wreck" of Abell 520 from Mahdavi et al., and the "dark clusters" of Erben et al., filamentary structures might contribute in a significant and likely complex fashion. On the other hand, our predictions of a (conceptual) difference in the weak lensing signal could, in principle, be used to falsify MOND/TeVeS and its variations.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures, published versio

Evaluating risk effects of industrial features on woodland caribou habitat selection in west central Alberta using agent-based modelling

AbstractAlberta woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are classified as threatened in Canada, and a local population in the west-central region, the Little Smoky herd, is at immediate risk of extirpation due, in part, to anthropogenic activities such as oil, gas, and forestry that have altered the ecosystem dynamics. To investigate these impacts, we have developed a spatially explicit, agent-based model (ABM) to simulate winter habitat selection and use of woodland caribou, and to determine the relative impacts of different industrial features on caribou habitat-selection strategies. The ABM model is composed of cognitive caribou agents possessing memory and decision-making heuristics that act to optimize tradeoffs between energy acquisition and disturbance. A set of environmental data layers was used to develop a virtual grid representing the landscape over which caribou move. This grid contained forage-availability, energy-content, and predation-risk values. The model was calibrated using GPS data from caribou radio collars (n = 13) deployed over six months from 2004 to 2005, representing caribou winter activities. Additional simulations were conducted on caribou habitat-selection strategies by assigning industrial features (i.e., roads, seismic lines, pipelines, well sites, cutblocks and burns) different levels of disturbance depending on their type, age, and density. Differences in disturbance effects between industry features were confirmed by verifying which resultant simulations of caribou movement patterns most closely match actual caribou distributions and other patterns extracted from the GPS data. The results elucidate the degree to which caribou perceive different industry features as disturbance, and the differential energetic costs associated with each, thus offering insight into why caribou are choosing the habitats they use, and consequently, the level and type of industry most likely to affect their bioenergetics and fitness