Evacuation and loss of life modelling to enhance emergency response

Recent major flood events from around the world have highlighted the importance of an effective emergency response in minimising loss of life and optimising the resources available. This paper describes the development of a dynamic, agent based, Life Safety Model (LSM) to estimate the flood risk to people in terms of loss of life and injuries, evacuation times and how improvements in emergency planning can reduce both of these. The LSM is the only tool that is currently available that allows for a dynamic interaction between people, vehicles, buildings and the floodwave. The model takes an approach based on the latest available physical equations rather than empirically deduced mortality rates and evacuation times. The model includes traffic and pedestrian models and also the ability to simulate the effectiveness of the dissemination of flood warnings on people’s behaviour. This paper will give a general overview of the capabilities and features of the LSM, and will illustrate this with a range of applications. These will include: a dam failure in France, a major coastal surge in the Thames Estuary in 1953 and Pacific tsunami impacts for western Canada

Engaging stakeholders in research to address water-energy-food (WEF) nexus challenges

The water–energy–food (WEF) nexus has become a popular, and potentially powerful, frame through which to analyse interactions and interdependencies between these three systems. Though the case for transdisciplinary research in this space has been made, the extent of stakeholder engagement in research remains limited with stakeholders most commonly incorporated in research as end-users. Yet, stakeholders interact with nexus issues in a variety of ways, consequently there is much that collaboration might offer to develop nexus research and enhance its application. This paper outlines four aspects of nexus research and considers the value and potential challenges for transdisciplinary research in each. We focus on assessing and visualising nexus systems; understanding governance and capacity building; the importance of scale; and the implications of future change. The paper then proceeds to describe a novel mixed-method study that deeply integrates stakeholder knowledge with insights from multiple disciplines. We argue that mixed-method research designs—in this case orientated around a number of cases studies—are best suited to understanding and addressing real-world nexus challenges, with their inevitable complex, non-linear system characteristics. Moreover, integrating multiple forms of knowledge in the manner described in this paper enables research to assess the potential for, and processes of, scaling-up innovations in the nexus space, to contribute insights to policy and decision making

En face optical coherence tomography of foveal microstructure in full-thickness macular hole: a model to study perifoveal müller cells.

PURPOSE: To characterize perifoveal intraretinal cavities observed around full-thickness macular holes (MH) using en face optical coherence tomography and to establish correlations with histology of human and primate maculae. DESIGN: Retrospective nonconsecutive observational case series. METHODS: Macular en face scans of 8 patients with MH were analyzed to quantify the areas of hyporeflective spaces, and were compared with macular flat mounts and sections from 1 normal human donor eye and 2 normal primate eyes (Macaca fascicularis). Immunohistochemistry was used to study the distribution of glutamine synthetase, expressed by Müller cells, and zonula occludens-1, a tight-junction protein. RESULTS: The mean area of hyporeflective spaces was lower in the inner nuclear layer (INL) than in the complex formed by the outer plexiform (OPL) and the Henle fiber layers (HFL): 5.0 × 10(-3) mm(2) vs 15.9 × 10(-3) mm(2), respectively (P < .0001, Kruskal-Wallis test). In the OPL and HFL, cavities were elongated with a stellate pattern, whereas in the INL they were rounded and formed vertical cylinders. Immunohistochemistry confirmed that Müller cells followed a radial distribution around the fovea in the frontal plane and a "Z-shaped" course in the axial plane, running obliquely in the OPL and HFL and vertically in the inner layers. In addition, zonula occludens-1 co-localized with Müller cells within the complex of OPL and HFL, indicating junctions in between Müller cells and cone axons. CONCLUSION: The dual profile of cavities around MHs correlates with Müller cell morphology and is consistent with the hypothesis of intra- or extracellular fluid accumulation along these cells

Validating the return period of rainfall thresholds used for Extreme Rainfall Alerts by linking rainfall intensities with observed surface water flood events

In 2008, the Environment Agency and the Meteorological Office launched a pilot Extreme Rainfall Alert (ERA) service as a first step towards providing a warning for surface water flooding. An ERA is based on rainfall intensity thresholds of an average of 1-in-30 year storms, to represent rainfall thought likely to cause severe surface water flooding in urban areas. This research investigates whether this return period is appropriate for warning of surface water flooding by examining the intensity and return period of rainfall associated with observed surface water flood (SWF) events. Data from rainfall gauges and flood events were analysed which showed that most of the SWF events were associated with rainfall intensities of less than 1-in-10 year return period. Improvements in data recording could provide flood magnitudes and durations, which would facilitate better understanding of the relationship between flood magnitude and rainfall intensity and allow more informed debate about SWF warning thresholds

A framework to assist with the improvement of emergency planning of floods - FIM FRAME

This paper details research carried out in England and Wales, France and the Netherlands to produce a framework to assist in improving emergency plans for floods. The research comprised an assessment of the effectiveness of current flood emergency plans, an evaluation of the use of tools available to flood risk managers to inform these plans and the development of a framework with which emergency plans can be developed or improved. The framework developed under the ERA-NET CRUE project, Flood Incident Management a Framework for Improvement (FIM FRAME), was tested via a number of workshops and case studies carried out over an 18 month period. The framework was applied to flood emergency plans for the city of Sheffield in the UK, the city of Dordrecht in the Netherlands and two towns in the Rhone Basin in France. The resulting framework is relatively simple to apply without specific training, can be applied independently anywhere and by any flood emergency management team and is generic in that it can be adapted by the user for their specific purpose. It is recommended that the framework developed as part of this work is used internationally to assist with the development and improvement of emergency plans for disasters worldwide

Experiences and advances in the use of the Life Safety Model to assist flood evacuation planning

Poster presented at this conference

Multimodal Imaging of Macular Telangiectasia Type 2: Focus on Vascular Changes Using Optical Coherence Tomography Angiography

PURPOSE. To report morphologic features of idiopathic macular telangiectasia (MacTel) type 2 by means of optical coherence tomography angiography (OCTA) and to compare these findings to fundus fluorescein angiography (FFA), fundus autofluorescence (FAF), confocal blue reflectance (CBR), and spectral-domain OCT (SD-OCT). In addition, foveal vessel density and parafoveal vascular density (PFVD), and foveal retinal thickness and parafoveal retinal thickness (PFRT) were compared between MacTel 2 patients and normal aged-matched controls. METHODS. Eight patients (15 eyes) with MacTel 2 and 17 normal controls (17 eyes) underwent retinal multimodal imaging assessment and grading. Results from different imaging techniques were used to compare interimaging modalities. Objective quantification of retinal vessel density and macular thickness was evaluated in MacTel 2 patients (15 eyes). RESULTS. In MacTel 2 eyes a comparison of OCTA to the other imaging techniques showed that the strongest correlations were present with SD-OCT, early FFA, and late FFA. Moderate correlations were found between OCTA and CBR and FAF. Foveal vessel density was significantly lower in MacTel 2 eyes than control eyes both in the superficial plexus (23.74% vs. 33.14%; P = 0.003) and in the deep plexus (24.63% vs. 34.21%; P = 0.005). Superficial PFVD was significantly different in the two groups (47.06% vs. 51.40%; P = 0.005) but not the deep PFVD. Foveal retinal thickness was 214.13 mu m in MacTel 2 eyes and 258.18 mu m in normal controls, and PFRT was 279.60 and 323.29 mu m, respectively (P CONCLUSIONS. Optical coherence tomography angiography is useful for retinal vasculature characterization in MacTel type 2 patients and showed a high correlation with well-established imaging techniques