Neural Structures to Predict River Stages in Heavily Urbanized Catchments

Accurate flow forecasting may support responsible institutions in managing river systems and limiting damages due to high water levels. Machine-learning models are known to describe many nonlinear hydrological phenomena, but up to now, they have mainly provided a single future value with a fixed information structure. This study trains and tests multi-step deep neural networks with different inputs to forecast the water stage of two sub-alpine urbanized catchments. They prove effective for one hour ahead flood stage values and occurrences. Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) perform better when only past information on the water stage is used. Long short-term memory nets (LSTMs) are more suited to exploit the data coming from the rain gauges. Predicting a set of water stages over the following hour rather than just a single future value may help concerned agencies take the most urgent actions. The paper also shows that the architecture developed for one catchment can be adapted to similar ones maintaining high accuracy

Efficacy of adalimumab as second-line therapy in a pediatric cohort of crohn’s disease patients who failed infliximab therapy: The Italian society of pediatric gastroenterology, hepatology, and nutrition experience

Background: Adalimumab (Ada) treatment is an available option for pediatric Crohn’s disease (CD) and the published experience as rescue therapy is limited. Objectives: We investigated Ada efficacy in a retrospective, pediatric CD cohort who had failed previous infliximab treatment, with a minimum follow-up of 6 months. Methods: In this multicenter study, data on demographics, clinical activity, growth, laboratory values (CRP) and adverse events were collected from CD patients during follow-up. Clinical remission (CR) and response were defined with Pediatric CD Activity Index (PCDAI) score ≤10 and a decrease in PCDAI score of ≥12.5 from baseline, respectively. Results: A total of 44 patients were consecutively recruited (mean age 14.8 years): 34 of 44 (77%) had active disease (mean PCDAI score 24.5) at the time of Ada administration, with a mean disease duration of 3.4 (range 0.3–11.2) years. At 6, 12, and 18 months, out of the total of the enrolled population, CR rates were 55%, 78%, and 52%, respectively, with a significant decrease in PCDAI scores (P<0.01) and mean CRP values (mean CRP 5.7 and 2.4 mL/dL, respectively; P<0.01) at the end of follow-up. Steroid-free remission rates, considered as the total number of patients in CR who were not using steroids at the end of this study, were 93%, 95%, and 96% in 44 patients at 6, 12, and 18 months, respectively. No significant differences in growth parameters were detected. In univariate analysis of variables related to Ada efficacy, we found that only a disease duration >2 years was negatively correlated with final PCDAI score (P<0.01). Two serious adverse events were recorded: 1 meningitis and 1 medulloblastoma. Conclusion: Our data confirm Ada efficacy in pediatric patients as second-line biological therapy after infliximab failure. Longer-term prospective data are warranted to define general effectiveness and safety in pediatric CD patients

CD25 deficiency: A new conformational mutation prevents the receptor expression on cell surface

CD25 deficiency is a very rare autosomal recessive disorder that shows a clinical phenotype highly overlapping IPEX syndrome with an increased susceptibility to viral, bacterial, and fungal infections. It is due to mutations in the IL2R alpha gene that codes for the a subunit of the IL2 receptor complex.Here we report the characterization of a novel IL2R alpha gene mutation leading to a severe protein conformational alteration that abrogates its cell surface expression in a child presenting with early-onset IPEX-like disorder. Cytofluorimetric analysis revealed the total absence of CD25 cell surface expression and addressed IL2R alpha molecular investigation.The early clinical and molecular diagnosis of CD25 deficiency in this patient promptly led to hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT), allowing complete resolution of the symptoms and definitive cure of the disease

A Framework for Integrated Assessment Modelling

“Air quality plans” according to Air Quality Directive 2008/50/EC Art. 23 are the strategic element to be developed, with the aim to reliably meet ambient air quality standards in a cost-effective way. This chapter provides a general framework to develop and assess such plans along the lines of the European Commission’s basic ideas to implement effective emission reduction measures at local, region, and national level. This methodological point of view also allows to analyse the existing integrated approaches

The Climate Security Index - A methodological note

In this methodological note, we propose a quantitative framework to develop a Climate and Security Index (CSI), for measuring and monitoring climate security vulnerability. Primarily meant for long-term planning and decision making for resilience building, it incorporates a broad range of drivers of the climate-security nexus, including those from climatic, conflict, socioeconomic, agricultural, and contextual (i.e., mitigating factors, adaptive capacity) dimensions, to indicate climate-security risks at subnational level. Emphasizing the role of water, land and food systems, a systemic approach, based on innovative modeling tools is envisioned, to account for the underlying relationships within the Climate Security Nexus

The greatest air quality experiment ever: Policy suggestions from the COVID-19 lockdown in twelve European cities

COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) hit Europe in January 2020. By March, Europe was the active centre of the pandemic. As a result, widespread "lockdown" measures were enforced across the various European countries, even if to a different extent. Such actions caused a dramatic reduction, especially in road traffic. This event can be considered the most significant experiment ever conducted in Europe to assess the impact of a massive switch-off of atmospheric pollutant sources. In this study, we focus on in situ concentration data of the main atmospheric pollutants measured in twelve European cities, characterized by different climatology, emission sources, and strengths. We propose a methodology for the fair comparison of the impact of lockdown measures considering the non-stationarity of meteorological conditions and emissions, which are progressively declining due to the adoption of stricter air quality measures. The analysis of these unmatched circumstances allowed us to estimate the impact of a nearly zero-emission urban transport scenario on air quality in 12 European cities. The clearest result, common to all the cities, is that a dramatic traffic reduction effectively reduces NO2 concentrations. In contrast, each city’s PM and ozone concentrations can respond differently to the same type of emission reduction measure. From the policy point of view, these findings suggest that measures targeting urban traffic alone may not be the only effective option for improving air quality in cities