Effects of land use and anthropogenic aerosol emissions in the Roman Empire

As one of the first transcontinental polities that led to widespread anthropogenic modification of the environment, the influence of the Roman Empire on European climate has been studied for more than 20 years. Recent advances in our understanding of past land use and aerosol–climate interactions make it valuable to revisit the way humans may have affected the climate of the Roman era. Here we estimate the effect of humans on some climate variables in the Roman Empire at its apogee, focusing on the impact of anthropogenic land cover and aerosol emissions. For this we combined existing land use scenarios with novel estimates (low, medium, high) of aerosol emissions from fuel combustion and burning of agricultural land. Aerosol emissions from agricultural burning were greater than those from fuel consumption but of the same order of magnitude. Using the global aerosol-enabled climate model ECHAM-HAM-SALSA, we conducted simulations with fixed sea-surface temperatures to gain a first impression about the possible climate impact of anthropogenic land cover and aerosols in the Roman Empire. While land use effects induced a regional warming for one of the reconstructions caused by decreases in turbulent flux, aerosol emissions enhanced the cooling effect of clouds and thus led to a cooling in the Roman Empire. Quantifying the anthropogenic influence on climate is, however, challenging since our model likely overestimates aerosol-effective radiative forcing and prescribes the sea-surface temperatures

How important are future marine and shipping aerosol emissions in a warming Arctic summer and autumn?

Future sea ice retreat in the Arctic in summer and autumn is expected to affect both natural and anthropogenic aerosol emissions: sea ice acts as a barrier between the ocean and the atmosphere, and reducing it increases dimethyl sulfide and sea salt emissions. Additionally, a decrease in the area and thickness of sea ice could lead to enhanced Arctic ship traffic, for example due to shorter routes of cargo ships. Changes in the emissions of aerosol particles can then influence cloud properties, precipitation, surface albedo, and radiation. Next to changes in aerosol emissions, clouds will also be affected by increases in Arctic temperatures and humidities. In this study, we quantify how future aerosol radiative forcings and cloud radiative effects might change in the Arctic in late summer (July–August) and early autumn (September–October). Simulations were conducted for the years 2004 and 2050 with the global aerosol–climate model ECHAM6-HAM2. For 2050, simulations with and without additional ship emissions in the Arctic were carried out to quantify the impact of these emissions on the Arctic climate. In the future, sea salt as well as dimethyl sulfide emissions and burdens will increase in the Arctic. The increase in cloud condensation nuclei, which is due to changes in aerosol particles and meteorology, will enhance cloud droplet number concentrations over the Arctic Ocean (+10 % in late summer and +29 % in early autumn; in-cloud values averaged between 75 and 90∘ N). Furthermore, both liquid and total water path will increase (+10 % and +8 % in late summer; +34 % and +26 % in early autumn) since the specific humidity will be enhanced due to higher temperatures and the exposure of the ocean's surface. Changes in both aerosol radiative forcings and cloud radiative effects at the top of the atmosphere will not be dominated by the aerosol particles and clouds themselves but by the decrease in surface albedo (and by the increase in surface temperature for the longwave cloud radiative effect in early autumn). Mainly due to the reduction in sea ice, the aerosol radiative forcing will become less positive (decreasing from 0.53 to 0.36 W m−2 in late summer and from 0.15 to 0.11 W m−2 in early autumn). The decrease in sea ice is also mainly responsible for changes in the net cloud radiative effect, which will become more negative in late summer (changing from −36 to −46 W m−2). Therefore, the cooling component of both aerosols and clouds will gain importance in the future. We found that future Arctic ship emissions related to transport and oil and gas extraction (Peters et al., 2011) will not have a large impact on clouds and radiation: changes in aerosols only become significant when we increase these ship emissions by a factor of 10. However, even with 10-fold ship emissions, the net aerosol radiative forcing shows no significant changes. Enhanced black carbon deposition on snow leads to a locally significant but very small increase in radiative forcing over the central Arctic Ocean in early autumn (no significant increase for average between 75 and 90∘ N). Furthermore, the 10-fold higher ship emissions increase the optical thickness and lifetime of clouds in late summer (net cloud radiative effect changing from −48 to −52 W m−2). These aerosol–cloud effects have a considerably larger influence on the radiative forcing than the direct effects of particles (both aerosol particles in the atmosphere and particles deposited on snow). In summary, future ship emissions of aerosols and their precursor gases might have a net cooling effect, which is small compared to other changes in future Arctic climate such as those caused by the decrease in surface albedo

Water uptake patterns of pea and barley responded to drought but not to cropping systems

Agricultural production is under threat of water scarcity due to increasingly frequent and severe drought events under climate change. Whether a change in cropping systems can be used as an effective adaptation strategy against drought is still unclear. We investigated how plant water uptake patterns of a field-grown pea–barley (Pisum sativum L. and Hordeum vulgare L.) mixture, an important fodder intercrop, responded to experimental drought under four cropping systems, i.e. organic intensive tillage, conventional intensive tillage, conventional no tillage, and organic reduced tillage. Drought was simulated after crop establishment using rain shelters. Proportional contributions to plant water uptake from different soil layers were estimated based on stable water isotopes using Bayesian mixing models. Pea plants always took up proportionally more water from shallower depths than barley plants.Water uptake patterns of neither species were affected by cropping systems. Both species showed similar responses to the drought simulation and increased their proportional water uptake from the shallow soil layer (0–20 cm) in all cropping systems. Our results highlight the impact of drought on plant water uptake patterns for two important crop species and suggest that cropping systems might not be as successful as adaptation strategies against drought as previously thought

Limited capability of organic farming and conservation tillage to enhance agroecosystem resilience to severe drought

CONTEXT: Climate change increasingly threatens food security, particularly through prolonged phases of drought. It is therefore important to evaluate and develop arable cropping systems with an enhanced capability to withstand severe drought events to ensure food production. However, it is still poorly understood whether specific management strategies, in particular organic farming and conservation tillage that are thought to be more resilient to drought, can enhance the ability of agroecosystem to withstand drought. OBJECTIVE: The main objective of this study was, therefore, to test the ability of organic farming and conservation tillage practices to withstand drought within expected boundaries of climate scenarios for the end of the century. METHODS: This study summarizes the effects of drought (both natural and experimental) on the productivity of three arable crops (maize, pea-barley mixture and winter wheat) assessed in three consecutive years in a longterm cropping system field experiment. We tested whether four relevant cropping systems (i.e., conventional and organic with and without soil conservation tillage) differ in their ability to reduce the impact of drought on plant yield and crop performance. We studied conditions of moderate natural drought (summer 2018) and severe experimental droughts using rainout shelters (3 years) after 8 years of contrasting field management. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: We found pronounced and consistent yield reductions due to experimental drought events for all cropping systems (34% for maize, 23% for pea-barley, and 17% for winter wheat). Drought induced yield reductions were largely similar across the four cropping systems, suggesting very limited capacity of any cropping system to buffer severe drought. Yet, there was an obvious but insignificant trend in maize in 2018 where under moderate and experimental drought conservation tillage resulted in a higher on-average yield compared to the plowed systems. Furthermore, drought resulted in lower nitrogen (N) uptake by the crops and a positive N budget, which could result in higher N losses after a drought period. SIGNIFICANCE: This study demonstrates that drought has consistent and adverse effects on crop productivity under conventional, organic and soil conservation arable cropping. It further demonstrates that it is difficult to find effective adaptation strategies for arable systems under realistic future scenarios and underlines the need to combine all available practices, from soil management to crop and cultivar choice, to mitigate drought impacts on crop productivity

Severe drought rather than cropping system determines litter decomposition in arable systems

"Litter decomposition is a fundamental process in soil carbon dynamics and nutrient turnover. However, litter decomposition in arable systems remains poorly explored, and it is unclear whether different management practices, such as organic farming, conservation agriculture can mitigate drought effects on litter decomposition. Thus, we examined the effects of a severe experimental drought on litter decomposition in four cropping systems, i.e., organic vs. conventional farming, each with two levels of tillage (intensive vs. conservation tillage) in Switzerland. We incubated two types of standard litter (tea bags), i.e., high-quality green tea with a low C:N ratio and low-quality rooibos tea with a high C:N ratio. We assessed litter decomposition during the simulated drought and in the post-drought period during three years in three different crops, i.e., pea-barley, maize, and winter wheat. Subsequently, we assessed whether decomposition in the four cropping systems differed in its resistance and resilience to drought. Drought had a major impact on litter decomposition and suppressed decomposition to a similar extent in all cropping systems. Both drought resistance and resilience of decomposition were largely independent of cropping systems. Drought more strongly reduced decomposition of the high-quality litter compared to the low-quality litter during drought conditions regarding the absolute change in mass remaining (12.3% vs. 6.5 %, respectively). However, the decomposition of high-quality litter showed a higher resilience, i.e., high-quality approached undisturbed decomposition levels faster than low-quality litter after drought. Soil nitrate availability was also strongly reduced by drought (by 32–86 %), indicating the strong reduction in nutrient availability and, most likely, microbial activity due to water shortage. In summary, our study suggests that severe drought has a much stronger impact on decomposition than cropping system indicating that it might not be possible to maintain decomposition under drought by the cropping system approaches we studied. Nevertheless, management options that improve litter quality, such as the use of legume crops with high N concentrations, may help to enhance the resilience of litter decomposition in drought-stressed crop fields.

Assessment of explanatory models of mental illness: effects of patient and interviewer characteristics

Background: Explanatory models (EMs) refer to patients’ causal attributions of illness and have been shown to affect treatment preference and outcome. Reliable and valid assessment of EMs may be hindered by interviewer and respondent disparities on certain demographic characteristics, such as ethnicity. The present study examined (a) whether ethnic minority patients reported different EMs to ethnically similar interviewers in comparison with those with a different ethnicity, and (b) whether this effect was related to respondents’ social desirability, the perceived rapport with the interviewer and level of uncertainty toward their EMs. Methods: A total of 55 patients of Turkish and Moroccan origins with mood and anxiety disorders were randomly assigned to ethnically similar or dissimilar interviewers. EMs were assessed, using a semi-structured interview, across 11 different categories of causes. Results: Participants who were interviewed by an ethnically similar interviewer perceived interpersonal, victimization and religious/mystical causes as more important, whereas interviews by ethnically dissimilar interviewers generated higher scores on medical causes. These effects were not mediated by the perceived rapport with the interviewer, and social desirability had a modest impact on the results. Higher uncertainty among participants toward medical and religious/mystical causes seemed to be associated with greater adjustment in the report of these EMs. Conclusion: The findings have significant implications for interviewer selection in epidemiological research and clinical practice

Grassland Resistance and Resilience after Drought Depends on Management Intensity and Species Richness

The degree to which biodiversity may promote the stability of grasslands in the light of climatic variability, such as prolonged summer drought, has attracted considerable interest. Studies so far yielded inconsistent results and in addition, the effect of different grassland management practices on their response to drought remains an open question. We experimentally combined the manipulation of prolonged summer drought (sheltered vs. unsheltered sites), plant species loss (6 levels of 60 down to 1 species) and management intensity (4 levels varying in mowing frequency and amount of fertilizer application). Stability was measured as resistance and resilience of aboveground biomass production in grasslands against decreased summer precipitation, where resistance is the difference between drought treatments directly after drought induction and resilience is the difference between drought treatments in spring of the following year. We hypothesized that (i) management intensification amplifies biomass decrease under drought, (ii) resistance decreases with increasing species richness and with management intensification and (iii) resilience increases with increasing species richness and with management intensification