Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE

We carry out climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten measured or estimated climate forcings. An ensemble of climate model runs is carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms acting together. We compare side-by-side simulated climate change for each forcing, all forcings, observations, unforced variability among model ensemble members, and, if available, observed variability. Discrepancies between observations and simulations with all forcings are due to model deficiencies, inaccurate or incomplete forcings, and imperfect observations. Although there are notable discrepancies between model and observations, the fidelity is sufficient to encourage use of the model for simulations of future climate change. By using a fixed well-documented model and accurately defining the 1880-2003 forcings, we aim to provide a benchmark against which the effect of improvements in the model, climate forcings, and observations can be tested. Principal model deficiencies include unrealistically weak tropical El Nino-like variability and a poor distribution of sea ice, with too much sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere and too little in the Southern Hemisphere. The greatest uncertainties in the forcings are the temporal and spatial variations of anthropogenic aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds.Comment: 44 pages; 19 figures; Final text accepted by Climate Dynamic

A Winogradsky-based culture system shows an association between microbial fermentation and cystic fibrosis exacerbation

There is a poor understanding of how the physiology of polymicrobial communities in cystic fibrosis (CF) lungs contributes to pulmonary exacerbations and lung function decline. In this study, a microbial culture system based on the principles of the Winogradsky column (WinCF system) was developed to study the physiology of CF microbes. The system used glass capillary tubes filled with artificial sputum medium to mimic a clogged airway bronchiole. Chemical indicators were added to observe microbial physiology within the tubes. Characterization of sputum samples from seven patients showed variation in pH, respiration, biofilm formation and gas production, indicating that the physiology of CF microbial communities varied among patients. Incubation of homogenized tissues from an explant CF lung mirrored responses of a Pseudomonas aeruginosa pure culture, supporting evidence that end-stage lungs are dominated by this pathogen. Longitudinal sputum samples taken through two exacerbation events in a single patient showed that a two-unit drop in pH and a 30% increase in gas production occurred in the tubes prior to exacerbation, which was reversed with antibiotic treatment. Microbial community profiles obtained through amplification and sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene showed that fermentative anaerobes became more abundant during exacerbation and were then reduced during treatment where P. aeruginosa became the dominant bacterium. Results from the WinCF experiments support the model where two functionally different CF microbial communities exist, the persistent Climax Community and the acute Attack Community. Fermentative anaerobes are hypothesized to be the core members of the Attack Community and production of acidic and gaseous products from fermentation may drive developing exacerbations. Treatment targeting the Attack Community may better resolve exacerbations and resulting lung damage