Early Infant Diagnosis of HIV in Three Regions in Tanzania; Successes and Challenges.

By the end of 2009 an estimated 2.5 million children worldwide were living with HIV-1, mostly as a consequence of vertical transmission, and more than 90% of these children live in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2008 the World Health Organization (WHO), recommended early initiation of Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART) to all HIV infected infants diagnosed within the first year of life, and since 2010, within the first two years of life, irrespective of CD4 count or WHO clinical stage. The study aims were to describe implementation of EID programs in three Tanzanian regions with differences in HIV prevalences and logistical set-up with regard to HIV DNA testing. Data were obtained by review of the prevention from mother to child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) registers from 2009-2011 at the Reproductive and Child Health Clinics (RCH) and from the databases from the Care and Treatment Clinics (CTC) in all the three regions; Kilimanjaro, Mbeya and Tanga. Statistical tests used were Poisson regression model and rank sum test. During the period of 2009 - 2011 a total of 4,860 exposed infants were registered from the reviewed sites, of whom 4,292 (88.3%) were screened for HIV infection. Overall proportion of tested infants in the three regions increased from 77.2% in 2009 to 97.8% in 2011. A total of 452 (10.5%) were found to be HIV infected (judged by the result of the first test). The prevalence of HIV infection among infants was higher in Mbeya when compared to Kilimanjaro region RR = 1.872 (95%CI = 1.408 - 2.543) p < 0.001. However sample turnaround time was significantly shorter in both Mbeya (2.7 weeks) and Tanga (5.0 weeks) as compared to Kilimanjaro (7.0 weeks), p=<0.001. A substantial of loss to follow-up (LTFU) was evident at all stages of EID services in the period of 2009 to 2011. Among the infants who were receiving treatment, 61% were found to be LFTU during the review period. The study showed an increase in testing of HIV exposed infants within the three years, there is large variations of HIV prevalence among the regions. Challenges like; sample turnaround time and LTFU must be overcome before this can translate into the intended goal of early initiation of lifelong lifesaving antiretroviral therapy for the infants

Clinical Outcomes, Costs, and Cost-effectiveness of Strategies for Adults Experiencing Sheltered Homelessness During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Importance: Approximately 356 000 people stay in homeless shelters nightly in the United States. They have high risk of contracting coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). / Objective: To assess the estimated clinical outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness associated with strategies for COVID-19 management among adults experiencing sheltered homelessness. / Design, Setting, and Participants: This decision analytic model used a simulated cohort of 2258 adults residing in homeless shelters in Boston, Massachusetts. Cohort characteristics and costs were adapted from Boston Health Care for the Homeless Program. Disease progression, transmission, and outcomes data were taken from published literature and national databases. Surging, growing, and slowing epidemics (effective reproduction numbers [Re], 2.6, 1.3, and 0.9, respectively) were examined. Costs were from a health care sector perspective, and the time horizon was 4 months, from April to August 2020. / Exposures: Daily symptom screening with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing of individuals with positive symptom screening results, universal PCR testing every 2 weeks, hospital-based COVID-19 care, alternative care sites (ACSs) for mild or moderate COVID-19, and temporary housing were each compared with no intervention. / Main Outcomes and Measures: Cumulative infections and hospital-days, costs to the health care sector (US dollars), and cost-effectiveness, as incremental cost per case of COVID-19 prevented. / Results: The simulated population of 2258 sheltered homeless adults had a mean (SD) age of 42.6 (9.04) years. Compared with no intervention, daily symptom screening with ACSs for pending tests or confirmed COVID-19 and mild or moderate disease was associated with 37% fewer infections (1954 vs 1239) and 46% lower costs ($6.10 million vs$3.27 million) at an Re of 2.6, 75% fewer infections (538 vs 137) and 72% lower costs ($1.46 million vs$0.41 million) at an Re of 1.3, and 51% fewer infections (174 vs 85) and 51% lower costs ($0.54 million vs$0.26 million) at an Re of 0.9. Adding PCR testing every 2 weeks was associated with a further decrease in infections; incremental cost per case prevented was $1000 at an Re of 2.6,$27 000 at an Re of 1.3, and $71 000 at an Re of 0.9. Temporary housing with PCR every 2 weeks was most effective but substantially more expensive than other options. Compared with no intervention, temporary housing with PCR every 2 weeks was associated with 81$39.12 million) at an Re of 2.6, 82% fewer infections (95) and 2568% higher costs ($38.97 million) at an Re of 1.3, and 59$38.94 million) at an Re of 0.9. Results were sensitive to cost and sensitivity of PCR and ACS efficacy in preventing transmission. / Conclusions and Relevance: In this modeling study of simulated adults living in homeless shelters, daily symptom screening and ACSs were associated with fewer severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections and decreased costs compared with no intervention. In a modeled surging epidemic, adding universal PCR testing every 2 weeks was associated with further decrease in SARS-CoV-2 infections at modest incremental cost and should be considered during future surges

Curable sexually transmitted infections among women with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa

OBJECTIVES: Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) cause significant morbidity among women with HIV and increase HIV transmission. We estimated the prevalence of four STIs among women with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and compared prevalence among women with and without HIV. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. METHODS: We searched for studies published 1 January 1999 to 19 December 2019 reporting prevalence of gonorrhea, chlamydia, trichomoniasis, or Mycoplasma genitalium among women with HIV in SSA. We excluded studies conducted in high-risk groups (e.g. female sex workers). We extracted data on laboratory-confirmed STIs among women with HIV, and when included, among women without HIV. We estimated pooled prevalence for each STI among women with HIV using inverse variance heterogeneity meta-analysis, compared prevalence to women without HIV, and examined the influences of region, clinical setting, and pregnancy status in subgroup analyses. RESULTS: We identified 3756 unique records; 67 studies were included in the meta-analysis. Prevalence of gonorrhea, chlamydia, trichomoniasis, and M. genitalium was 3.5, 4, 15.6, and 10.2%, respectively. Chlamydia prevalence was lower in Eastern (2.8%) than in Southern (12.5%) and West/Central (19.1%) Africa combined. Prevalence of chlamydia and trichomoniasis was higher among pregnant (8.1%, 17.6%) than nonpregnant (1.7%, 12.3%) women. All STIs were more prevalent among women with than without HIV (relative risks ranging 1.54-1.89). CONCLUSION: STIs are common among women with HIV in SSA, and more common among women with than without HIV. Integrated STI and HIV care could substantially impact STI burden among women with HIV, with potential downstream impacts on HIV transmission

Simulation Modeling and Metamodeling to Inform National and International HIV Policies for Children and Adolescents

Objective and Approach: Computer-based simulation models serve an important purpose in informing HIV care for children and adolescents. We review current model-based approaches to informing pediatric and adolescent HIV estimates and guidelines. // Findings: Clinical disease simulation models and epidemiologic models are used to inform global and regional estimates of numbers of children and adolescents living with HIV and in need of antiretroviral therapy, to develop normative guidelines addressing strategies for diagnosis and treatment of HIV in children, and to forecast future need for pediatric and adolescent antiretroviral therapy formulations and commodities. To improve current model-generated estimates and policy recommendations, better country-level and regional-level data are needed about children living with HIV, as are improved data about survival and treatment outcomes for children with perinatal HIV infection as they age into adolescence and adulthood. In addition, novel metamodeling and value of information methods are being developed to improve the transparency of model methods and results, as well as to allow users to more easily tailor model-based analyses to their own settings. // Conclusions: Substantial progress has been made in using models to estimate the size of the pediatric and adolescent HIV epidemic, to inform the development of guidelines for children and adolescents affected by HIV, and to support targeted implementation of policy recommendations to maximize impact. Ongoing work will address key limitations and further improve these model-based projections

What Will It Take to Eliminate Pediatric HIV? Reaching WHO Target Rates of Mother-to-Child HIV Transmission in Zimbabwe: A Model-Based Analysis

Using a simulation model, Andrea Ciaranello and colleagues find that the latest WHO PMTCT (prevention of mother to child transmission of HIV) guidelines plus better access to PMTCT programs, better retention of women in care, and better adherence to drugs are needed to eliminate pediatric HIV in Zimbabwe

Validation and Calibration of a Computer Simulation Model of Pediatric HIV Infection

Background: Computer simulation models can project long-term patient outcomes and inform health policy. We internally validated and then calibrated a model of HIV disease in children before initiation of antiretroviral therapy to provide a framework against which to compare the impact of pediatric HIV treatment strategies. Methods: We developed a patient-level (Monte Carlo) model of HIV progression among untreated children 1,300 untreated, HIV-infected African children. Results: In internal validation analyses, model-generated survival curves fit IeDEA data well; modeled and observed survival at 16 months of age were 91.2% and 91.1%, respectively. RMSE varied widely with variations in CD4% parameters; the best fitting parameter set (RMSE = 0.00423) resulted when CD4% was 45% at birth and declined by 6%/month (ages 0-3 months) and 0.3%/month (ages >3 months). In calibration analyses, increases in IeDEA-derived mortality risks were necessary to fit UNAIDS survival data. Conclusions: The CEPAC-Pediatric model performed well in internal validation analyses. Increases in modeled mortality risks required to match UNAIDS data highlight the importance of pre-enrollment mortality in many pediatric cohort studies

The Video intervention to Inspire Treatment Adherence for Life (VITAL Start): protocol for a multisite randomized controlled trial of a brief video-based intervention to improve antiretroviral adherence and retention among HIV-infected pregnant women in Malawi

Abstract Background Improving maternal antiretroviral therapy (ART) retention and adherence is a critical challenge facing prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV programs. There is an urgent need for evidence-based, cost-effective, and scalable interventions to improve maternal adherence and retention that can be feasibly implemented in overburdened health systems. Brief video-based interventions are a promising but underutilized approach to this crisis. We describe a trial protocol to evaluate the effectiveness and implementation of a standardized educational video-based intervention targeting HIV-infected pregnant women that seeks to optimize their ART retention and adherence by providing a VITAL Start (Video intervention to Inspire Treatment Adherence for Life) before committing to lifelong ART. Methods This study is a multisite parallel group, randomized controlled trial assessing the effectiveness of a brief facility-based video intervention to optimize retention and adherence to ART among pregnant women living with HIV in Malawi. A total of 892 pregnant women living with HIV and not yet on ART will be randomized to standard-of-care pre-ART counseling or VITAL Start. The primary outcome is a composite of retention and adherence (viral load < 1000 copies/ml) 12 months after starting ART. Secondary outcomes include assessments of behavioral adherence (self-reported adherence, pharmacy refill, and tenofovir diphosphate concentration), psychosocial impact, and resource utilization. We will also examine the implementation of VITAL Start via surveys and qualitative interviews with patients, partners, and health care workers and conduct cost-effectiveness analyses. Discussion This is a robust evaluation of an innovative facility-based video intervention for pregnant women living with HIV, with the potential to improve maternal and infant outcomes. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03654898. Registered on 31 August 2018

Cost-eff ectiveness of diff erent strategies to monitor adults on antiretroviral treatment: a combined analysis of three mathematical models

Background WHO’s 2013 revisions to its Consolidated Guidelines on antiretroviral drugs recommend routine viral load monitoring, rather than clinical or immunological monitoring, as the preferred monitoring approach on the basis of clinical evidence. However, HIV programmes in resource-limited settings require guidance on the most costeff ective use of resources in view of other competing priorities such as expansion of antiretroviral therapy coverage. We assessed the cost-eff ectiveness of alternative patient monitoring strategies. Methods We evaluated a range of monitoring strategies, including clinical, CD4 cell count, and viral load monitoring, alone and together, at diff erent frequencies and with diff erent criteria for switching to second-line therapies. We used three independently constructed and validated models simultaneously. We estimated costs on the basis of resource use projected in the models and associated unit costs; we quantifi ed impact as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. We compared alternatives using incremental cost-eff ectiveness analysis. Findings All models show that clinical monitoring delivers signifi cant benefi t compared with a hypothetical baseline scenario with no monitoring or switching. Regular CD4 cell count monitoring confers a benefi t over clinical monitoring alone, at an incremental cost that makes it aff ordable in more settings than viral load monitoring, which is currently more expensive. Viral load monitoring without CD4 cell count every 6–12 months provides the greatest reductions in morbidity and mortality, but incurs a high cost per DALY averted, resulting in lost opportunities to generate health gains if implemented instead of increasing antiretroviral therapy coverage or expanding antiretroviral therapy eligibility. Interpretation The priority for HIV programmes should be to expand antiretroviral therapy coverage, fi rstly at CD4 cell count lower than 350 cells per μL, and then at a CD4 cell count lower than 500 cells per μL, using lower-cost clinical or CD4 monitoring. At current costs, viral load monitoring should be considered only after high antiretroviral therapy coverage has been achieved. Point-of-care technologies and other factors reducing costs might make viral load monitoring more aff ordable in future

WHO 2010 Guidelines for Prevention of Mother-to-Child HIV Transmission in Zimbabwe: Modeling Clinical Outcomes in Infants and Mothers

The Zimbabwean national prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) program provided primarily single-dose nevirapine (sdNVP) from 2002-2009 and is currently replacing sdNVP with more effective antiretroviral (ARV) regimens.Published HIV and PMTCT models, with local trial and programmatic data, were used to simulate a cohort of HIV-infected, pregnant/breastfeeding women in Zimbabwe (mean age 24.0 years, mean CD4 451 cells/µL). We compared five PMTCT regimens at a fixed level of PMTCT medication uptake: 1) no antenatal ARVs (comparator); 2) sdNVP; 3) WHO 2010 guidelines using "Option A" (zidovudine during pregnancy/infant NVP during breastfeeding for women without advanced HIV disease; lifelong 3-drug antiretroviral therapy (ART) for women with advanced disease); 4) WHO "Option B" (ART during pregnancy/breastfeeding without advanced disease; lifelong ART with advanced disease); and 5) "Option B+:" lifelong ART for all pregnant/breastfeeding, HIV-infected women. Pediatric (4-6 week and 18-month infection risk, 2-year survival) and maternal (2- and 5-year survival, life expectancy from delivery) outcomes were projected.Eighteen-month pediatric infection risks ranged from 25.8% (no antenatal ARVs) to 10.9% (Options B/B+). Although maternal short-term outcomes (2- and 5-year survival) varied only slightly by regimen, maternal life expectancy was reduced after receipt of sdNVP (13.8 years) or Option B (13.9 years) compared to no antenatal ARVs (14.0 years), Option A (14.0 years), or Option B+ (14.5 years).Replacement of sdNVP with currently recommended regimens for PMTCT (WHO Options A, B, or B+) is necessary to reduce infant HIV infection risk in Zimbabwe. The planned transition to Option A may also improve both pediatric and maternal outcomes