Factors affecting onchocerciasis transmission: Lessons for infection control

Introduction: Onchocerca volvulus infects in excess of 15 million people. The vectors are Simulium blackflies, varieties of which differ in their ecologies, behaviour and vectorial abilities. Control of the vectors and mass administrations of ivermectin have succeeded in reducing prevalences with elimination achieved in some foci, particularly in Central and southern America. In Africa, progress towards elimination has been less successful. Areas covered: Even with community directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI), control has been difficult in African areas with initial prevalences in excess of 55%, especially if only annual treatments are dispensed. This is partly attributable to insufficient coverage, but the appearance of incipiently resistant non-responding parasites and lack of attention to vector biology in modelling and planning outcomes of intervention programmes have also played their parts, with recrudescence now appearing in some treated areas. Expert commentary: The biology of onchocerciasis is complex involving different vectors with differing abilities to transmit parasites, diverse pathologies related to geographical and parasite variations and endosymbionts in both parasite and vector. Modelling to predict epidemiological and control outcomes is addressing this complexity but more attention needs to be given to the vectors’ roles to further understanding of where and when control measures will succeed

A threshold policy to interrupt transmission of West Nile Virus to birds

This paper proposes a model of West Nile Virus (WNV) with a Filippov-type control strategy of culling mosquitoes implemented once the number of infected birds exceeds a threshold level. The long-term dynamical behaviour of the proposed non-smooth system is investigated. It is shown hat as the threshold value varies, model solutions ultimately approach either one of two endemic equilibria for two subsystems or a pseudo-equilibrium on the switching surface, which is a novel steady state. The results indicate that a previously chosen level of infected birds can be maintained when the threshold policy and other parameters are chosen properly. Numerical studies show that under the threshold policy, strengthening mosquito culling together with protecting bird population is beneficial to curbing the spread of WNV

Models of impulsive culling of mosquitoes to interrupt transmission of West Nile Virus to birds

A mathematical model describing the transmission of West Nile virus (WNV) between vector mosquitoes and birds, incorporating a control strategy of culling mosquitoes and defined by impulsive differential equations is presented and its properties investigated. First, we consider a strategy of periodic impulsive culling of the mosquitoes. Theoretical results indicate that if the threshold R 0 is greater than unity the disease uniformly persists, but, if not, the disease does not necessarily become extinct. The explicit conditions determining the backward or forward bifurcation were obtained. The culling rate has a major effect on the occurrence of backward bifurcation. Analysis shows that the disease is most sensitive to mosquito-bird contacts, mosquito-culling rate and intervals between culls. The dependence of the outcomes of the culling strategy on mosquito biting rate is discussed. When the complete elimination of disease is impossible, mosquito culls are implemented once the infected birds reach a predefined but adjustable threshold value. Numerical analysis shows that the period of mosquito culling finally stabilizes at a fixed value. In addition, variations of mean prevalence of \{WNV\} in birds and the culling period are simulated

Nonlinear pulse vaccination in an SIR epidemic model with resource limitation

Mathematical models can assist in the design and understanding of vaccination strategies when resources are limited. Here we propose and analyse an SIR epidemic modelwith a nonlinear pulse vaccination to examine how a limited vaccine resource affects the transmission and control of infectious diseases, in particular emerging infectious diseases. The threshold condition for the stability of the disease free steady state is given. Latin Hypercube Sampling/Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques were employed to determine the key factors which are most significantly related to the threshold value. Comparing this threshold value with that without resource limitation, our results indicate that if resources become limited pulse vaccination should be carried out more frequently than when sufficient resources are available to eradicate an infectious disease. Once the threshold value exceeds a critical level, both susceptible and infected populations can oscillate periodically. Furthermore, when the pulse vaccination period is chosen as a bifurcation parameter, the SIR model with nonlinear pulse vaccination reveals complex dynamics including period doubling, chaotic solutions, and coexistence of multiple attractors. The implications of our findings with respect to disease control are discussed

Desert locust populations, rainfall and climate change: insights from phenomenological models using gridded monthly data

Using autocorrelation analysis and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)modelling, we analysed a time series of the monthly number of 1° grid squares infested with desert locust Schistocerca gregaria swarms throughout the geographical range of the species from 1930–1987. Statistically significant first- and higher-order autocorrelations were found in the series. Although endogenous components captured much of the variance, adding rainfall data improved endogenous ARIMA models and resulted in more realistic forecasts. Using a square-root transformation for the locust data improved the fit. The models were only partially successful when accounting for the dramatic changes in abundance which may occur during locust upsurges and declines, in some cases successfully predicting these phenomena but underestimating their severity. Better fitting models were also produced when rainfall data were added to models of an equivalent series for desert locust hoppers (nymphs) that incorporated lagged data for locust swarms as independent variables, representing parent generations. The results are discussed in relation to predicting likely changes in desert locust dynamics with reference to potential effects of climate change

Ecological characteristics of Simulium breeding sites in West Africa

Twenty-nine taxa of Simulium were identified amongst 527 collections of larvae and pupae from untreated rivers and streams in Liberia (362 collections in 1967–71 & 1989), Togo (125 in 1979–81), Benin (35 in1979–81) and Ghana (5 in 1980–81). Presence or absence of associations between different taxa were usedto group them into six clusters using Ward agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis. Environmental data associated with the pre-imaginal habitats were then analysed in relation to the six clusters by oneway ANOVA. The results revealed significant effects in determining the clusters of maximum river width (all P < 0.001 unless stated otherwise), water temperature, dry bulb air temperature, relative humidity,altitude, type of water (on a range from trickle to large river), water level, slope, current, vegetation,light conditions, discharge, length of breeding area, environs, terrain, river bed type (P < 0.01), and the supports to which the insects were attached (P < 0.01). When four non-significant contributors (wet bulb temperature, river features, height of waterfall and depth) were excluded and the reduced data-set analysed by principal components analysis (PCA), the first two principal components (PCs) accounted for 87% of the variance, with geographical features dominant in PC1 and hydrological characteristics in PC2. The analyses also revealed the ecological characteristics of each taxon’s pre-imaginal habitats, which are discussed with particular reference to members of the Simulium damnosum species complex, whose breeding site distributions were further analysed by canonical correspondence analysis (CCA), a method also applied to the data on non-vector species

Modeling the effects of augmentation strategies on the control of Dengue fever with an impulsive differential equation

Dengue fever has rapidly become the world’s most common vector-borne viral disease. Use of endosymbiotic Wolbachia is an innovative technology to prevent vector mosquitoes from reproducing and so break the cycle of dengue transmission. However, strategies such as population eradication and replacement will only succeed if appropriate augmentations with Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes that take account of a variety of factors are carried out. Here, we describe the spread of Wolbachia in mosquito populations using an impulsive differential system with four state variables, incorporating the effects of cytoplasmic incompatibility and the augmentation of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes with different sex ratios.We then evaluated (a) how each parameter value contributes to the success of population replacement; (b) how different release quantities of infected mosquitoes with different sex ratios affect the success of population suppression or replacement; and (c) how the success of these two strategies can be realized to block the transmission of dengue fever. Analysis of the system’s stability, bifurcations and sensitivity reveals the existence of forward and backward bifurcations, multiple attractors and the contribution of each parameter to the success of the strategies. The results indicate that the initial density of mosquitoes, the quantities of mosquitoes released in augmentations and their sex ratios have impacts on whether or not the strategies of population suppression or replacement can be achieved. Therefore, successful strategies rely on selecting suitable strains of Wolbachia and carefully designing the mosquito augmentation program

Workshop on research p riorities for migrant pests of agriculture in Southern Africa, Plant Protection Research Institute, Pretoria, South Africa, 24–26 March 1999

The Workshop was held at the Agricultural Research Council – Plant Protection Research Institute, Pretoria, from 24 to 26 March 1999 and was attended by 66 delegates from Botswana, Malawi, Namibia, South Africa, Sudan, Swaziland, Tanzania, United Kingdom, Zimbabwe, the International Red Locust Control Organisation for Central and Southern Africa (IRLCO-CSA) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (see pages xiii–xvi for list of delegates). The first day focused on presenting a synopsis of current research on the three main migrant pests in southern Africa – armyworm, locusts and quelea – and described the national, regional (IRLCO-CSA, Southern African Development Community, SADC) and international (FAO) infrastructures for dealing with them. On the second and third days, after consideration of the issues to be addressed to ensure uptake of research findings by resource-poor farmers, the Workshop divided into three groups according to pest species. Each group adopted a generalised Logical Framework approach to identifying research priorities, constraints, risks and linkages. Four Logical Frameworks, covering armyworm, locust, quelea and cross-cutting research priorities were developed and an informal ad hoc steering committee (names annotated in list, pages xiii–xvi) undertook to bring together the Workshop’s findings in a Summary Report and to make recommendations on further actions

A preliminary analysis of the population genetics and molecular phylogenetics of Onchocerca volvulus (Nematoda: Filarioidea) using nuclear ribosomal second internal transcribed spacer sequences.

Nuclear internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS2) rDNA sequences were used for a molecular phylogenetics analysis of five Onchocerca species. The sister species of the human parasite O. volvulus was found to be the cattle parasite O. ochengi and not O. gibsoni, contrary to chromosomal evidence. The genetic differentiation of two African populations (representing the two African strains) and a Brazilian population of O. volvulus was also studied. Phylogenetic and network reconstruction did not show any clustering of ITS2 alleles on geographic or strain grounds. Furthermore, population genetics tests showed no indication of population differentiation but suggested gene flow among the three populations

Cumulative effects of incorrect use of pesticides can lead to catastrophic outbreaks of pests

Modeling external perturbations such as chemical control within each generation of discrete populations is challenging. Based on a method proposed in the literature, we have extended a discrete single species model with multiple instantaneous pesticide applications within each generation, and then discuss the existence and stability of the unique positive equilibrium. Further, the effects of the timing of pesticide applications and the instantaneous killing rate on the equilibrium were investigated in more detail and we obtained some interesting results, including a paradox and the cumulative effects of the incorrect use of pesticides on pest outbreaks. In order to show the occurrences of the paradox and of hormesis, several special models have been extended and studied. Further, the biological implications of the main results regarding successful pest control are discussed. All of the results obtained confirm that the cumulative effects of incorrect use of pesticides may result in more severe pest outbreaks and thus, in order to avoid a paradox in pest control, control strategies need to be designed with care, including decisions on the timing and number of pesticide applications in relation to the effectiveness of the pesticide being used