Stock market crises and macroeconomic depressions in Spain, 1850-2020

Stock market crashes have occurred very frequently in Spain. However, in the period 1850-2006, Spain had a lower probability of a depression being associated with a crash than in other countries, even though economic depressions were also common during the period. This result could be explained by the small size and low level of development of the stock market throughout most of this period. However, the probability rises when considering a longer period (1850-2018 and also until 2020), which includes the years of greater financial development and international integration. In this later period, Spain is more similar to other developed countries and stock market crashes seem to be more predictive of the prospect of a depression occurring, especially when the stock market crash is accompanied by a banking crisis. As a result, greater financial instability seems to be the main transmission mechanism between stock market crises and depressions.Las crisis bursátiles se han producido con mayor frecuencia en España. Sin embargo, en el periodo 1850-2006, España tuvo una menor probabilidad, que otros países, de que una depresión económica estuviera asociada a una crisis, a pesar de que las depresiones económicas también fueron comunes durante el periodo. Este resultado podría explicarse por el pequeño tamaño y bajo nivel de desarrollo del mercado bursátil durante la mayor parte de este periodo. Sin embargo, la probabilidad aumenta al considerar un lapso más largo (1850-2018 y también hasta 2020), que incluye los años de mayor desarrollo financiero e integración internacional. En este último periodo, España se parece más a otros países desarrollados y las crisis bursátiles parecen predecir en mayor medida la posibilidad de que se produzca una depresión, especialmente cuando la crisis bursátil va acompañada de una crisis bancaria. En consecuencia, una mayor inestabilidad financiera parece ser el principal mecanismo de transmisión entre las crisis bursátiles y las depresiones

Two Great Banking Crises and Their Economic Impact Compared: Spain 1976/1977 and 2008

The 1976/1977 crisis was the most severe in Spanish history, but the losses associated with the 2008 crisis are huge. This paper compares these two great banking crises and identifies the main parallels and differences between them. Is the current crisis as severe as that of 1976? What is the impact on the banking and financial sectors? We show that the 1976 crisis is being surpassed by the 2008 crisis in terms of the decline in GDP, industrial production and unemployment, and that these two events have had at least a similar impact in terms of output gap and output loss. Finally, the financial impact measured by different financial indicators confirms the greater severity of the 2008 crisis.La crisis de 1976/77 fue la más severa de la historia en España, pero las pérdidas asociadas a la crisis de 2008 han sido también enormes. Este trabajo compara las dos grandes crisis bancarias e identifica los principales paralelismos y diferencias entre ambas. ¿Es la crisis actual tan severa como la de 1976? ¿Cuál ha sido su impacto en la banca y en el sector financiero? El trabajo muestra que la crisis de 1976 se ha visto sobrepasada por la de 2008 en términos de caída en el PIB, producción industrial y empleo, y que estos dos acontecimientos han tenido al menos un impacto similar en términos de output loss y output gap. Finalmente, el impacto financiero medido a través de diferentes indicadores confirma la mayor severidad de la crisis de 2008.This paper has received financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (MINECO) ECO2009-08791 and MINECO/FEDER ECO2015-66782-P

Financial crises in Spain: lessons from the last 150 years

Financial crises are not unique to current financial systems. Are crises alike? Have they become more frequent, longer lasting and more severe since the 20th century? What does history tell us? The objective of this paper is to study the financial crises that have occurred in Spain over the last 150 years. We consider different types of crises (banking, currency and stock market crises), together with all their possible combinations, estimate their frequency by period and measure their length and depth. The main conclusion we obtain is that Spanish crises have been more frequent than in the rest of the world and have been more severe and more complex since 1973, as the 2007 crisis is confirming.Las crisis financieras no son un fenómeno reciente. ¿Son todas las crisis parecidas?, ¿han sido las crisis más frecuentes, largas y severas en el siglo XX?, ¿qué nos muestra la historia? El objetivo de este trabajo es estudiar las crisis financieras en España en los últimos 150 años. Se han considerado diferentes tipos de crisis (bancarias, de tipo de cambio y bursátiles), así como sus posibles combinaciones, se ha estimado la frecuencia de las crisis en varios períodos y se ha medido su duración e intensidad. La principal conclusión obtenida es que las crisis financieras en España han sido más frecuentes que en el resto del mundo y desde 1973 han sido también más severas y más complejas, como está confirmando la crisis que estalló en 2007.This paper received financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation ECO2009-0879

Deaths and years of life lost due to suboptimal breast-feeding among children in the developing world: a global ecological risk assessment

Abstract Objective We estimate attributable fractions, deaths and years of life lost among infants and children ≤2 years of age due to suboptimal breast-feeding in developing countries. Design We compare actual practices to a minimum exposure pattern consisting of exclusive breast-feeding for infants ≤6 months of age and continued breast-feeding for older infants and children ≤2 years of age. For infants, we consider deaths due to diarrhoeal disease and lower respiratory tract infections, and deaths due to all causes are considered in the second year of life. Outcome measures are attributable fractions, deaths, years of life lost and offsetting deaths potentially caused by mother-to-child transmission of HIV through breast-feeding. Setting Developing countries. Subjects Infants and children ≤2 years of age. Results Attributable fractions for deaths due to diarrhoeal disease and lower respiratory tract infections are 55% and 53%, respectively, for the first six months of infancy, 20% and 18% for the second six months, and are 20% for all-cause deaths in the second year of life. Globally, as many as 1.45 million lives (117 million years of life) are lost due to suboptimal breast-feeding in developing countries. Offsetting deaths caused by mother-to-child transmission of HIV through breast-feeding could be as high as 242 000 (18.8 million years of life lost) if relevant World Health Organization recommendations are not followed. Conclusions The size of the gap between current practice and recommendations is striking when one considers breast-feeding involves no out-of-pocket costs, that there exists universal consensus on best practices, and that implementing current international recommendations could potentially save 1.45 million children's lives each yea

Transhumant GPS tracked sheep flocks from lowlands to highlands in Spain: grazing resources use and difficulties of walking/herding

The need for preserving walking/herding transhumance drove roads on the Iberian Peninsula hasbeen widely recognized, as they provide a wide range of ecosystem services. In spite of the decline of walkingtranshumance in Spain, some drove roads are being reactivated due mainly to the high price of lorrytransport and feeds for livestock. The objectives of this work were: (i) develop a method to track the transhumantflocks in order to know the route followed and detail the type of pastures that the sheep use during thetrip; (ii) know the main difficulties of the activity, either technical, economic or social. Collars with GPS wereinstalled around the neck of some animals of five transhumant flocks. The data provided by GPS were analyzedby a GIS and overlapped with pastures/vegetation maps. For each flock, interviews with the farmersprovided data in terms of difficulties for the activity to be continued. The method provided highly accurate dataof the routes. The main types of vegetation used by sheep and main difficulties perceived by the farmers tocontinue the activity are summarized

Fertilización nitrogenada en olivo cv. Empeltre. II.- composición polifenólica de hojas y frutos y calidad del aceite

4 Pags.- 1 Tabl.- 3 Figs.El establecimiento de posibles relaciones entre el estado nutricional del olivo, la composición polifenólica de sus hojas y frutos y la calidad del aceite, sólo puede llevarse a cabo en experimentos de fertilización controlados, donde se estudie el efecto de un sólo elemento nutriente, manteniendo constantes todos los demás parámetros agronómicos. Este es el objetivo del presente trabajo. Realizar un estudio de este tipo, es tarea compleja, interdisciplinar, y exige un largo periodo de tiempo de observación y seguimiento. Nuestro equipo la ha abordado, aunque consciente de que no se puede llegar en corto plazo a resultados concluyentes. La reconocida calidad de los aceites de Aragón (GRACIA, 1991, 1996, 2001) y la peculiaridad de las principales variedades aquí implantadas, Empeltre y Arbequina, han motivado la puesta en marcha de dos experimentos de fertilización con árboles jóvenes (uno en cada variedad), que puedan contribuir a mejorar su conocimiento. En dos trabajos previos (MONGE et al., 2002 a y b) se da cuenta de los datos relativos a cada uno de los experimentos, así como de los primeros resultados del estudio de los suelos, del estado nutritivo de los árboles y del crecimiento de éstos. El presente trabajo sintetiza los primeros datos obtenidos en el ensayo de fertilización nitrogenada con la variedad Empeltre sobre el contenido de los polifenoles en hoja y fruto y sobre la calidad del aceite.Este trabajo ha sido subvencionado por el MAPA, Programa de Mejora de la Calidad de la Producción de Aceite de Oliva, proyecto CAO99-020-C2.Peer reviewe

National estimates for maternal mortality: an analysis based on the WHO systematic review of maternal mortality and morbidity

BACKGROUND: Despite the worldwide commitment to improving maternal health, measuring, monitoring and comparing maternal mortality estimates remain a challenge. Due to lack of data, international agencies have to rely on mathematical models to assess its global burden. In order to assist in mapping the burden of reproductive ill-health, we conducted a systematic review of incidence/prevalence of maternal mortality and morbidity. METHODS: We followed the standard methodology for systematic reviews. This manuscript presents nationally representative estimates of maternal mortality derived from the systematic review. Using regression models, relationships between study-specific and country-specific variables with the maternal mortality estimates are explored in order to assist further modelling to predict maternal mortality. RESULTS: Maternal mortality estimates included 141 countries and represent 78.1% of the live births worldwide. As expected, large variability between countries, and within regions and subregions, is identified. Analysis of variability according to study characteristics did not yield useful results given the high correlation with each other, with development status and region. A regression model including selected country-specific variables was able to explain 90% of the variability of the maternal mortality estimates. Among all country-specific variables selected for the analysis, three had the strongest relationships with maternal mortality: proportion of deliveries assisted by a skilled birth attendant, infant mortality rate and health expenditure per capita. CONCLUSION: With the exception of developed countries, variability of national maternal mortality estimates is large even within subregions. It seems more appropriate to study such variation through differentials in other national and subnational characteristics. Other than region, study of country-specific variables suggests infant mortality rate, skilled birth attendant at delivery and health expenditure per capita are key variables to predict maternal mortality at national level

Interventions targeting healthcare providers to optimise use of caesarean section: a qualitative comparative analysis to identify important intervention features

BACKGROUND: Rapid increases in caesarean section (CS) rates have been observed globally; however, CS rates exceeding 15% at a population-level have limited benefits for women and babies. Many interventions targeting healthcare providers have been developed to optimise use of CS, typically aiming to improve and monitor clinical decision-making. However, interventions are often complex, and effectiveness is varied. Understanding intervention and implementation features that likely lead to optimised CS use is important to optimise benefits. The aim of this study was to identify important components that lead to successful interventions to optimise CS, focusing on interventions targeting healthcare providers.  METHODS: We used Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to identify if certain combination of important intervention features (e.g. type of intervention, contextual characteristics, and how the intervention was delivered) are associated with a successful intervention as reflected in a reduction of CS. We included 21 intervention studies targeting healthcare providers to reduce CS, comprising of 34 papers reporting on these interventions. To develop potential theories driving intervention success, we used existing published qualitative evidence syntheses on healthcare providers' perspectives and experiences of interventions targeted at them to reduce CS. RESULTS: We identified five important components that trigger successful interventions targeting healthcare providers: 1) training to improve providers' knowledge and skills, 2) active dissemination of CS indications, 3) actionable recommendations, 4) multidisciplinary collaboration, and 5) providers' willingness to change. Importantly, when one or more of these components are absent, dictated nature of intervention, where providers are enforced to adhere to the intervention, is needed to prompt successful interventions. Unsuccessful interventions were characterised by the absence of these components. CONCLUSION: We identified five important intervention components and combinations of intervention components which can lead to successful interventions targeting healthcare providers to optimise CS use. Health facility managers, researchers, and policy-makers aiming to improve providers' clinical decision making and reduce CS may consider including the identified components to optimise benefits

Educational interventions targeting pregnant women to optimise the use of caesarean section: What are the essential elements? A qualitative comparative analysis

BACKGROUND: Caesarean section (CS) rates are increasing globally, posing risks to women and babies. To reduce CS, educational interventions targeting pregnant women have been implemented globally, however, their effectiveness is varied. To optimise benefits of these interventions, it is important to understand which intervention components influence success. In this study, we aimed to identify essential intervention components that lead to successful implementation of interventions focusing on pregnant women to optimise CS use. METHODS: We re-analysed existing systematic reviews that were used to develop and update WHO guidelines on non-clinical interventions to optimise CS. To identify if certain combinations of intervention components (e.g., how the intervention was delivered, and contextual characteristics) are associated with successful implementation, we conducted a Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA). We defined successful interventions as interventions that were able to reduce CS rates. We included 36 papers, comprising 17 CS intervention studies and an additional 19 sibling studies (e.g., secondary analyses, process evaluations) reporting on these interventions to identify intervention components. We conducted QCA in six stages: 1) Identifying conditions and calibrating the data; 2) Constructing truth tables, 3) Checking quality of truth tables; 4) Identifying parsimonious configurations through Boolean minimization; 5) Checking quality of the solution; 6) Interpretation of solutions. We used existing published qualitative evidence synthesis to develop potential theories driving intervention success. RESULTS: We found successful interventions were those that leveraged social or peer support through group-based intervention delivery, provided communication materials to women, encouraged emotional support by partner or family participation, and gave women opportunities to interact with health providers. Unsuccessful interventions were characterised by the absence of at least two of these components. CONCLUSION: We identified four key essential intervention components which can lead to successful interventions targeting women to reduce CS. These four components are 1) group-based delivery, 2) provision of IEC materials, 3) partner or family member involvement, and 4) opportunity for women to interact with health providers. Maternal health services and hospitals aiming to better prepare women for vaginal birth and reduce CS can consider including the identified components to optimise health and well-being benefits for the woman and baby