基于变系数模型的我国资本流动审慎管理研究

本文采用事实测度法构建符合审慎特征的时变资本流动管理指标,并采用时变系数法考察了我国资本流动管理的有效性及其与短期资本流动的相关关系。研究发现,我国资本流动管理的有效性以2013年为界呈现出先减弱后增强的趋势。另一方面,仅依靠增强管理有效性而不增加管理强度难以有效防范突发事件冲击造成的大规模资本流动。此外,审慎型资本流动管理政策可以有效调控短期资本流动,且其对于资本流动的短期影响强于长期。国家自然科学基金项目(71473208);;教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目(12JZD027);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(16YJA790051)资

全球化背景下的货币政策独立性——基于博弈论与二元悖论的探讨

本文基于卡尔瓦什(2013)的两国博弈模型,采用纳什模型和斯塔克尔伯格模型探讨了全球化背景下保持货币政策独立性的必要性及其相应前提。在此基础上采用面板数据模型实证分析了汇率稳定与货币政策独立性之间的非线性关系及其影响机制。研究发现:第一,在面临总需求冲击时,我国仍需要保持一定的货币政策独立性;第二,汇率稳定与货币政策独立性之间存在先增加后减少的倒U型关系,二元悖论在实践中并不存在;第三,当经济或金融的发展水平较高时,汇率制度稳定性对于货币政策独立性的抑制作用明显减弱

Research on the Intermediate Path between Capital Account Liberalization and Exchange Rate Regime Reform

本文通过修正的非抛补利率平价模型设立资本流动管理政策指标,建立DSGE模型比较不同汇率制度下的中央银行政策组合及福利损失。研究结果表明:相比资本完全自由流动,对资本流动进行管理有利于央行降低福利损失;同时采用货币政策、汇率政策以及资本流动管理"三位一体"的政策组合带来的福利效应始终优于其他政策实行方案。因此,存在这样一条中间路径,即同时采用管理浮动汇率制与资本流动管理二者相结合的宏观政策组合,从而在维护经济和金融稳定发展的前提下,有序推进人民币的国际化改革。By adding portfolio adjustment costs, this paper built a DSGE theoretical model with monetary policy, exchange rate and capital flow management to discuss the welfare loss of central bank under different exchange rate regimes.It comes to the following conclusions： firstly, the central bank could reduce its welfare loss by the management of capital flow instead of the capital flow liberalization; secondly, it is the optimal choice for central bank to imply monetary policy, exchange rate policy and capital flow management policy at the same time.Therefore, at the present stage, China should imply the combination of the three policies above to accelerate the Renminbi internationalization.国家自然科学基金项目“动态优化视觉下的我国外汇储备全面风险管理研究”(71473208)；教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目“中国外汇储备的科学管理与战略运用问题研究”(12JZD027)；教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“人民币汇率联动与人民币定价权研究”(16YJA790051)

JUNO Sensitivity on Proton Decay p→νˉK+p\to \bar\nu K^+ Searches

The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) is a large liquid scintillator detector designed to explore many topics in fundamental physics. In this paper, the potential on searching for proton decay in $p\to \bar\nu K^+$ mode with JUNO is investigated.The kaon and its decay particles feature a clear three-fold coincidence signature that results in a high efficiency for identification. Moreover, the excellent energy resolution of JUNO permits to suppress the sizable background caused by other delayed signals. Based on these advantages, the detection efficiency for the proton decay via $p\to \bar\nu K^+$ is 36.9% with a background level of 0.2 events after 10 years of data taking. The estimated sensitivity based on 200 kton-years exposure is $9.6 \times 10^{33}$ years, competitive with the current best limits on the proton lifetime in this channel

JUNO sensitivity on proton decay p → ν K + searches*

The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) is a large liquid scintillator detector designed to explore many topics in fundamental physics. In this study, the potential of searching for proton decay in the $p\to \bar{\nu} K^+$ mode with JUNO is investigated. The kaon and its decay particles feature a clear three-fold coincidence signature that results in a high efficiency for identification. Moreover, the excellent energy resolution of JUNO permits suppression of the sizable background caused by other delayed signals. Based on these advantages, the detection efficiency for the proton decay via $p\to \bar{\nu} K^+$ is 36.9% ± 4.9% with a background level of $0.2\pm 0.05({\rm syst})\pm$$0.2({\rm stat})$ events after 10 years of data collection. The estimated sensitivity based on 200 kton-years of exposure is $9.6 \times 10^{33}$ years, which is competitive with the current best limits on the proton lifetime in this channel and complements the use of different detection technologies