ICT Index Analysis on China's Private Enterprises--Legal Status, Management and Environment

信息是管理决策的基础，企业的管理过程是信息筛选和信息分析的过程，企 业的创新也是内部信息和外部信息联系、冲突、碰撞的结果。信息交流技术是信 息技术的重要组成部分，不仅为技术创新和服务创新创造必要的客观条件，同时 也为管理创新提供了重要手段。本文以我国民营企业为研究背景，以受访厂商对 信息交流技术在商业活动中的使用频率为基础，得出信息交流技术指数的各方面 结果（InformationCommunicationTechnologyIndex，简称ICT指数），即：区域 ICT指数、区域ICT应用指数、总体ICT引入途径、以及单个工厂水平下的ICT 指数。 区域ICT指数以及单个工厂...Information is the basis of management and decision. For enterprises, management is the process of choosing and analyzing information. Innovation is the crush and connection of information inward and outward. Information Communication Technology (short for “ICT” ) takes an important part in Information Technology, which is not only the foundation of technology and service innovation but also t...学位：经济学硕士院系专业：经济研究所_产业经济学学号：1602013115223

碳税制度下企业产品升级及信息披露策略研究

在实行碳税制度的背景下，本文构建了包含两家制造商的双寡头模型，以其中一家制造商是否投资产品升级减排作为关键信息，分别研究信息不公开（模型1）和信息公开（模型2）时两家制造商的均衡定价与最优利润以及制造商产品升级的条件,并且进一步研究当制造商同时掌握技术决策权和信息披露权时选择四种不同决策方案的条件。理论结果表明，如果升级后单位实际生产成本变大，制造商选择不升级且不公开；如果升级后单位实际成本变小，当升级后利润增值大于固定成本投入时，制造商选择升级并不公开，反之，选择不升级并公开。无论升级前后单位实际成本大小关系如何，制造商都不会选择升级且公开信息。数值试验部分表明，当制造商同时掌握技术选择权和信息披露权时，碳税是驱动制造商进行升级减排的主要因素，随着碳税的提高，制造商会依次从不升级不公开，不升级公开到升级不公开做决策。当不升级的概率越大时，制造商会在较低的碳税点越早开始升级；当减排努力越大时，制造商会在较高的碳税点才开始升级。国家自然科学基金资助项目（71671151、71371158、71711530046

基于组合算法的电子产品回收预测系统研究

对第三方逆向物流服务商而言，电子产品回收数量具有少样本、不确定性及模糊性的特点，电子产品回收量预测的精度直接影响到企业的运营成本以及服务水平。在单个预测模型中，GM(1,1)模型具有适应少样本预测的特点，对近期数据具有较好的逼近效果，但是对序列的趋势性比较敏感；FTS模型能够处理不确定性数据中因模糊性而产生的噪声，但是对序列趋势的把握具有滞后性。本文设计了GM(1,1)模型与FTS模型相结合的组合预测模型（FTS＿GM(1,1)模型），通过利用两个模型的优势以提高电子产品回收预测的准确性和可靠性。本文根据企业的真实回收数据进行预测，实验结果表明组合预测法比单个预测法具有更好的预测效果。在此基础上，本文提出了以FTS＿GM(1,1)组合模型为主，其他预测模型为辅的回收预测系统原型，为企业在实践中选取合适的预测模型提供建议。国家自然科学基金资助项目（71671151、71371158、71711530046

Electronic Product Returns Forecasting Based on Data-driven

电子产品型号类型多、更新速度快等特点导致了预测回收量的难度大,因此对第三方维修服务商而言,电子产品回收量预测的精度直接影响到企业的运营成本以及服; 务水平.通过企业真实数据的回归分析,发现产品的累计销售量与累计回收量之间存在显著的线性相关性,由此设计了回归预测方法与阻尼趋势预测方法相结合的组; 合预测方法,并进行数值实验.实验结果表明该组合预测方法在电子产品回收预测量中能达到比使用单个模型更好的效果,实现了预测精度的显著提升.Characteristics of electronic products such as multiplicity and rapid; renewal render returns more difficult to forecast.For third party; maintenance service providers,the accuracy of electronic products; returns forecasting plays a crucial role in terms of operation cost and; service level.This paper uses a company's real data to find that there; exits a linear relationship between its cumulative sales and cumulative; returns quantity by linear regression,and develops a new forecasting; method combining regression forecasting method with damped trend; exponential smoothing method.Results of the numerical experiment show; that this combination method performs better in practice than those; single models do,and the forecasting accuracy can be improved; significantly.国家自然科学基

中国脑血管病临床管理指南（第2版）（节选）——第3章 脑血管病高危人群管理 Chinese Stroke Association Guidelines for Clinical Management of Cerebrovascular Diseases (Second Edition) (Except) ——Chapter Three Management of Patients at Hige-risk of Cerebrovascular Diseases

针对脑血管病的危险因素积极进行早期干预管理是减少脑血管病危害最有效的方法。本章节介绍脑血管病高危人群管理的推荐意见，包括对不可干预和可干预血管危险因素的控制，阿司匹林在缺血性卒中一级预防中的应用以及首次卒中风险评估等方面。 Abstract: Early intervention to manage the risk factors of cerebrovascular disease is the most effective way to reduce the harm of cerebrovascular diseases. This chapter presents recommendations for the management of populations at high risk for cerebrovascular disease, including control of non-interventionable and interventionable vascular risk factors, the use of aspirin in the primary prevention of ischaemic stroke, and the risk assessment of first-time stroke

JUNO Sensitivity on Proton Decay p→νˉK+p\to \bar\nu K^+ Searches

The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) is a large liquid scintillator detector designed to explore many topics in fundamental physics. In this paper, the potential on searching for proton decay in $p\to \bar\nu K^+$ mode with JUNO is investigated.The kaon and its decay particles feature a clear three-fold coincidence signature that results in a high efficiency for identification. Moreover, the excellent energy resolution of JUNO permits to suppress the sizable background caused by other delayed signals. Based on these advantages, the detection efficiency for the proton decay via $p\to \bar\nu K^+$ is 36.9% with a background level of 0.2 events after 10 years of data taking. The estimated sensitivity based on 200 kton-years exposure is $9.6 \times 10^{33}$ years, competitive with the current best limits on the proton lifetime in this channel

JUNO sensitivity on proton decay p → ν K + searches*

The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) is a large liquid scintillator detector designed to explore many topics in fundamental physics. In this study, the potential of searching for proton decay in the $p\to \bar{\nu} K^+$ mode with JUNO is investigated. The kaon and its decay particles feature a clear three-fold coincidence signature that results in a high efficiency for identification. Moreover, the excellent energy resolution of JUNO permits suppression of the sizable background caused by other delayed signals. Based on these advantages, the detection efficiency for the proton decay via $p\to \bar{\nu} K^+$ is 36.9% ± 4.9% with a background level of $0.2\pm 0.05({\rm syst})\pm$$0.2({\rm stat})$ events after 10 years of data collection. The estimated sensitivity based on 200 kton-years of exposure is $9.6 \times 10^{33}$ years, which is competitive with the current best limits on the proton lifetime in this channel and complements the use of different detection technologies