An applying research on HLM in the influential factors analysis of hospitalization expenses

住院费用影响因素的研究一直是医疗保险精算领域风险控制研究的主要内容。目前，用于住院费用影响因素分析的方法主要是传统的统计分析方法。然而，住院费用的产生往往不仅由病人层次的因素影响，同时也受到医院级别及地区因素的影响，需要分析具有层次结构的数据。而具有层次结构的资料不适宜用传统的统计方法，宜采用分层线性模型。 本文应用分层线性模型，参考已有文献资料，利用福建省莆田市荔城区某镇新型农村合作医疗保险所补偿的住院费用的半年记录，探讨了影响住院费用的个人层次因素与医院层次因素，并最终建立了住院费用对数值与肿瘤情况、住院天数、药品费对数值及医院级别的分层线性模型。本研究的结果表明：影响住院费用的个人层次...The study on factors affecting hospitalization expenses has always been the main contents of risk control study on medical actuarial field．Currently,the main analysis methods for hospitalization expenses are the traditional statistical analysis．However, the production of hospitalization expenses is influenced not only by the factors of patient-level, but also by the hospital-level and regional fac...学位：理学硕士院系专业：数学科学学院数学与应用数学系_概率论与数理统计学号：1902007115209

Quantitative Study on Population Mortality Rate——Based on Functional Data Analysis

摘要 死亡是重要的人口事件，对人口年龄结构的改变有重要作用，同时与经济、社会的发展有着密切联系。对死亡进行研究不仅有助于提高人口的健康水平和生活质量，同时能为政府制定各项经济、社会长期发展战略提供科学依据，为医疗服务、公共卫生及社会资源再分配等各项改善人类健康和生活状况的政策和措施提供参考。 我国自1982年开始现代化的人口普查，至今一共进行了四次。受限于人口死亡资料的匮乏，我国人口的死亡研究理论有待完善。使用函数性数据分析方法对人口死亡率进行研究，符合死亡率本应是一条光滑函数的特点，从函数的角度对死亡率进行分析，有以下优势：首先，拟合死亡率函数能完成对原始数据的光滑性修正；其次，函数性分...ABSTRACT Death is an important demographic event. It plays an important role on changes in population age structure, and is closely linked with the development of economy and society. Researches in death theory not only help to improve the health and life quality of the population, but provide scientific basis for the government to develop long-term strategy of economic and social development. Mo...学位：经济学博士院系专业：经济学院_统计学学号：1542011015379

我国外汇储备规模的影响因素分析——基于协整分析的实证研究

本文使用协整分析方法对我国外汇储备规模的影响因素进行实证研究。结果表明外汇储备规模与出口总额、进口总额、外商直接投资、短期外债余额和人民币汇率等影响因素之间存在长期的协整关系。本文最后对我国外汇储备管理提出了相关的政策建议

Functional Prediction Model for Mortality

人口死亡率反映人口的死亡水平,是人口规模的重要影响因素,同时也是人寿保险精算的重要数据基础。从数据特征来看,死亡率作为年龄的函数,是一种典型的函数型数据。本文使用函数型数据方法分析中国人口数据,基于1994—2010年中国人口分年龄死亡数据,建立函数型死亡率预测模型,对未来分年龄死亡率进行预测,并通过生命表方法计算了未来平均预期寿命。同时通过对历史数据的预测,说明模型预测结果比较可信。Population mortality,reflecting the death level of the population,is an important factor of the scale of the population.At the same time,it is the significant data basis for life insurance actuarial science.On the characteristic of the data,as a function of age,Mortality is a typical functional data.This paper build a functional prediction model for mortality,based on Chinese age-specific mortality data from 1994 ~ 2010,forest the future aged-specific mortality and calculate the average life expectancy by the method of life table.In addition to this,prediction results by historical data shows that the prediction results is credible.国家社会科学基金项目“金融高频数据挖掘方法及应用研究”资助(项目编号:11BTJ001

Research on Life Distribution Model of Cancer Patients Under Random Censoring Life Test——based on the Survey of Tumor Patients in a Hospital in Fujian Province from 2003 to 2007

本文基于福建省某医院对2003-2007年肿瘤患者的调查,按住院人数统计,对顺位前三类癌症患者的寿命分布模型进行了研究。研究发现:(1)40-50岁是女性子宫肿瘤发病的高峰期,并且有逐年增长的趋势;(2)剔除女性患子宫肿瘤人数的影响,肿瘤发病的高峰期转移到60-70岁这个年龄段,表现出其它肿瘤多发于老年人,而且肺癌、胃癌、肝癌患者人数尤为突出;(3)肺癌、胃癌、肝癌患者的寿命分布属同一分布族,并且均能通过随机截尾数据下的H-P检验。Based on the survey of tumor patients in a hospital in Fujian Province from 2003 to 2007,this paper studied life distribution of cancer patients whose number is at top three.We find: Firstly,high-incidence period of uterine tumor is in 40 to 50 years old women,and incidence rate is increasing in recent years.Secondly,after removing the effect of uterine tumor,high-incidence period of the tumor is in 60 to 70 years old people and the number of patients suffering from lung cancer,gastric cancer,liver cancer are more than others.Lastly,the life distributions of lung cancer,gastric cancer and liver cancer belong to the same distribution family and the null hypothesis is not rejected by H-P test under random censored data.福建省自然科学基金计划项目“保险精算中修匀方法的研究及应用”(S0650038)的资

基于转发概率的时延容忍网络路由

针对延时容忍网络(Delay-tolerant Networks,DTNs)的数据传输问题,提出基于转发概率的时延容忍网络路由(Forwarding-probability DTN Routing,FPDR)。FPDR路由引用机会路由的思想,传递数据。先通过推导一跳邻居节点和二跳邻居节点的转发概率,然后,再依据节点的转发概率选择下一跳转发节点,进而减少数据包被转发的次数,提高数据包传递率。仿真结果表明,提出的FPDR路由有效地提高了数据包传递率,并减少了数据包被转发的次数

Effects of Diosmetin from Carbonized Cirsium japonicum on Apoptosis in Human MCF-7 Breast Cancer Cells and its Mechanisms

研究大蓟炭中香叶木素诱导人乳腺癌MCF-7细胞凋亡及其作用机制。采用硅胶和Sephadex; LH-20柱层析从大蓟炭中分离鉴定了三个黄酮类化合物,经NMR和MS鉴定他们的结构分别为香叶木素(1)、刺槐素(2)和柳川鱼黄素(3)。采用MT; S方法检测不同浓度的香叶木素对MCF-7的细胞活力的影响;流式细胞术检测不同浓度的香叶木素处理对MCF-7细胞凋亡的作用;Western; blot法检测香叶木素处理对细胞PARP、P-JNK等细胞凋亡相关蛋白表达的影响。MTS及流式细胞术结果显示香叶木素能显著抑制MCF-7的增殖并; 且诱导细胞凋亡;香叶木素可上调P-JNK促进细胞凋亡。结果表明香叶木素在体外实验能通过激活JNK细胞凋亡通路抑制MCF-7的增殖及促进细胞凋亡。To study the effects of diosmetin from carbonized Cirsium japonicum on; apoptosis in human MCF-7 breast cancer cells and its mechanisms. Three; flavonoids were isolated and purified from carbonized C. japonicum by; silica gel and Sephadex LH-20 chromatography methods. Their structures; were elucidated by NMR and MS spectroscopic data and identified as; diosmetin(1),acacetin(2) and pectolinarigenin(3). MTS assay was; performed to detect the viability of MCF-7 cells treated by different; concentrations of diosmetin. The cell apoptosis rate was further; analyzed by flow cytometry(FCM). Western blot assay was applied to; measure the apoptosis related protein expression levels of PARP,P-JNK.; Diosmetin treatment on MCF-7 cells significantly inhibited cell; proliferation and induced cell apoptosis. Diosmetin significantly; downregulated P-JNK and upregulated cleaved-PARP protein expression.; Diosmetin inhibited MCF-7 cell proliferation and induced cell apoptosis; by activation of JNK pathway in vitro.江西中医药大学校级科研项目; 国家自然科学基金; 江西省自然科学基

The Study of Defining the Coverage of Imputed Consumption in the CPI

基于CPI的编制目的,探讨纳入CPI的虚拟消费(自有住房和金融服务)的计价问题。分析表明:CPI中虚拟消费的计价范围应与计价方法相对应,且服从不重不漏的统计原则;结合中国CPI编制的实际情况,需要在中国自有住房服务估算租金的成本法中完善计价范围,添加尚未列出的费用项目;金融服务则可效仿自有住房服务的处理方法,以支出法gdP的居民消费为基准口径,逐步将金融服务费用纳入中国CPI中。Based on the study of CPI principal purpose and the corresponding framework,referenced to some countries statistics data,this paper discussed the pricing rang about the owner-occupied housing and financial services in the CPI,and got some instructive conclusions.The accounting range of imputed consumption should correspond to the approach of accounting,and subject to the non-repetition and nonomission principal.Combined with the actual situation of China's CPI system,incorporated owner-occupied housing into China's CPI uses the user-cost approach,and should add the items which is not listed.The measurement of financial services can follow the example of owner-occupied housing services,refer to the measurement of the expenditure for GDP,gradually incorporate financial services into China's CPI.教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目《中国居民消费价格指数(CPI)的理论与实践研究》(11JZD019); 国家社会科学基金重点项目《中国产业关联特征及支柱产业研究》(11ATZ002

Research of Clustering Analysis for Functional Data Based on Adaptive Weighting

基于有限维离散数据的传统聚类分析并不能直接用于函数型数据的分类挖掘。本文针对函数型数据的稀疏性和无穷维特殊性展开讨论,在综合剖析现有函数型聚类方法优势与不足的基础上,依据聚类指标的信息量差异重构加权主成分距离为函数相似性测度,提出了一种函数型数据的自适应权重聚类分析。相对同类函数型聚类算法,新方法的核心优势在于:(1)自适应赋权的距离函数体现了聚类指标分类效率的差异,并且有充分的理论基础保证其必要性和客观合理性;(2)基于有限维离散数据的聚类实现了无限维连续函数的聚类,能够显著降低计算成本。实证检验表明,新方法的分类正确率明显提高,能够有效解决传统聚类算法极端情形下的失效问题,有着复杂函数型数据分类问题下的灵活性和普遍适用性。Traditional clustering analysis for finite dimensional discrete data cannot be generalized directly to functional data classification.Focusing on sparsity and infinite dimension of functional data,under thorough comparison on advantages and defects of existed functional clustering methods,this paper proposed an adaptive weighting functional clustering analysis by reconstructing weighted principal component distance as functional similarity according to variables' information difference.Contrast to existed functional clustering methods,the core advantages of new method are:(1) The adaptive weighted distance statistics fully reflect the different classification efficiency of clustering variables,and having sufficient theoretical basis to ensure its necessity and rationality;(2) The clustering of infinite dimensional continuous function is realized by clustering of finite dimensional discrete data,owning an advantage of significantly reducing computation cost.Empirical test results reveal the new method improved classification accuracy,so it deserve flexibility and universal adaptability to complex functional data classification for its effective capability of solving problems under extreme situations which is invalid by traditional functional data clustering analysis.国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD148); 教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-12-0955); 国家自然科学基金项目(71071153

Design and implementation of pen-based role modeling tool for children＇s storytelling

分析了适合儿童的角色建模工具;设计了适合儿童的笔式交互方式和角色建模过程;最后结合已有的儿童讲故事系统,实现了一个基于笔的儿童故事角色建模工具,并给出了一个使用实例。该工具支持儿童自然方便地创建故事角色,使儿童可以有一个更大的故事创作空间