Failure to Complete Cross-Border M&As:“To”vs.“From” Emerging Markets

周晨希是厦门大学管理学院2015年引进的海归博士，受聘为“群贤计划”市场学助理教授。他是美国佛罗利达大学商学院营销学专业博士,主要从事企业战略管理、行为经济学等方面的研究。 本研究调查涉及新兴市场跨国并购完成的预测因数如何取决于全球扩张的方向,即向发展中市场的入境投资或来自发达市场的出境投资。【Abstract】While cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) involving emerging markets have been increasing in recent years, a high percentage collapse before completion. This study investigates how the predictors of cross-border M&A completion involving emerging markets depend upon the direction of global expansion, i.e., investment inbound to a developing market or outbound from a developing market. Analysis based on 15 years of data from four emerging economies, Brazil, Russia, India, and China, from 1995 to 2010,reveals fundamental differences in the predictors of inbound vs. outbound M&A completion. Country-level factors reflecting differences in political, trade,and legal environments strongly affect the completion for inbound M&As, but have a much weaker influence on outbound M&As. By contrast, firm-level factors such as past M&A experience have a significantly stronger effect on completion for outbound than for inbound M&As. Most interestingly, two deal-level factors (the percentage of stake sought by the acquirer and whether or not the deal is a cash transaction) increase the likelihood of completion for inbound but decrease it for outbound M&As. These findings have important managerial implications for enhancing the success of global expansions

有害型产品的预售战略

有害型产品或服务在当代社会的消费规模日益增加,日常生活中常见的有害型产品包括自助餐、快餐、手机游戏和赌场等。该类产品的显著特征是:消费时,消费者得到即时的满足感,但其消费的副作用将在未来对消费者产生显著影响。具体消费场景体现为消费者通过手机软件提前订购自助餐、快餐和手游等产品或者服务。基于消费者自我控制理论和厂商预售定价理论,探讨消费者购买决策过程中的行为偏差对厂商预售定价的影响机理。以销售有害型产品厂商为主要研究对象,通过构建行为经济学模型,系统分析消费者当期偏好倾向和消费者过度自信两大消费者行为偏差对厂商的最优定价策略、厂商利润和消费者剩余的影响,进一步考察厂商提供退款承诺对行为偏差和厂商利润关系的调节作用。研究结果表明,①消费者决策过程中的行为偏差显著影响厂商预售定价和退款战略,即在存在消费者行为偏差的情况下,厂商愿意承诺更高的退款金额,并且高的预售价格也未必与高的退款金额紧密相关;②消费者行为偏差既可能增加也可能减少厂商利润水平,而厂商是否提供退款机制显著调节消费者行为偏差与厂商利润之间的关系;③相对于没有退款承诺的情形,提供退款承诺能够帮助厂商获得更多的利润。有害型产品的副作用越大,消费者的过度自信程度越高,从而厂商通过退款承诺获取的利润也越多。此外,消费者在提前购买商品时面临的购买风险既可增加也可减少退款承诺带来的额外收益。研究拓展了传统的预售模型,在考虑消费者行为偏差后,新的模型可以更准确地刻画消费者对于有害型产品的实际购买决策过程。进一步揭示了退款的另一重要作用,即通过打破消费者决策行为的一致性来获取价值。研究结果还可以帮助相关行业管理者洞察消费者行为因素,有针对性地制定营销战略和提升企业绩效水平。国家自然科学基金(71502151)~

Characteristics of microbial communities and their association with immunity and metabolism at the early developmental stage of Protosalanx chinensis(大银鱼早期发育阶段微生物群落特征及其与免疫和代谢的关联)

In order to understand the changes and characteristics of microbial communities during early development of Protosalanx chinensis, samples were collected at five developmental periods, which are the embryonic period (heartbeat stage, XT), the endogenous nutrition period (the first day after hatching, H1), the mixed nutrition period (the fourth day after hatching, H4), the open feeding period (the seventh day after hatching, H7), and the exogenous nutrition period (the tenth day after hatching, H10). Microbial community succession during early development was observed by 16S rRNA gene sequencing technology, especially the characteristics and key microbial genera before and after feeding. Combined with the transcriptome data of the same batch of samples, the microbial genera related to immunity and metabolism were analyzed based on the association network method. The results showed that there were significant differences in β diversity among the different periods at the early developmental stage (P＜0.001). The dominant bacteria in the XT period were Flavobacterium and Chryseobacterium, and the dominant bacterium in the H1 period was Pseudomonas. The main bacteria in the H4 period were Flavobacterium and Pseudomonas. The main bacteria in H7 and H10 periods were Flectobacillus and Pseudomonas. The abundance of Pseudomonas was stable at all developmental periods. Node bacteria such as Flectobacillus were significantly associated with the expression of various immune and metabolic genes. This study has obtained the microbial succession information of the early developmental stage of P. chinensis for the first time, and screened out the dominant bacteria and node bacteria, which will provide references and ideas for the scaled cultivation of P. chinensis fry.(为了解大银鱼早期发育过程中的微生物群落变化规律与特征，采集大银鱼胚胎期（心跳期，XT）、内源性营养期（采样时间为孵化后第1天，记为H1）、混合性营养期（孵化后第4天，H4）、开口摄食期（孵化后第7天，H7）和外源性营养期（孵化后第10天，H10）5个发育时期的样本。通过16S rRNA基因测序技术观察大银鱼早期发育过程中的微生物群落演替，尤其是摄食前后的微生物群落特征和关键菌属；并结合同批次样品的转录组数据，基于关联网络方法重点分析了与免疫和代谢相关的菌属。结果显示：大银鱼早期发育阶段各时期的β多样性存在显著差异（P＜0.001），其中，XT的优势菌群为黄杆菌属（Flavobacterium）和金黄杆菌属（Chryseobacterium）；胚后H1时期的优势菌群为假单胞菌属（Pseudomonas）；H4时期的主要菌群为黄杆菌属和假单胞菌属；H7和H10时期的主要菌群为弯曲杆菌属（Flectobacillus）和假单胞菌属。假单胞菌属在各时期中稳定存在。与多种免疫和代谢基因表达显著相关的是弯曲杆菌属等节点菌属。本研究首次获得了大银鱼早期发育阶段的微生物演替信息，同时，筛选到的优势菌属与节点菌属将为大银鱼苗种的规模化培育提供思路和参考。

Prediction of Energy Resolution in the JUNO Experiment

International audienceThis paper presents the energy resolution study in the JUNO experiment, incorporating the latest knowledge acquired during the detector construction phase. The determination of neutrino mass ordering in JUNO requires an exceptional energy resolution better than 3% at 1 MeV. To achieve this ambitious goal, significant efforts have been undertaken in the design and production of the key components of the JUNO detector. Various factors affecting the detection of inverse beta decay signals have an impact on the energy resolution, extending beyond the statistical fluctuations of the detected number of photons, such as the properties of liquid scintillator, performance of photomultiplier tubes, and the energy reconstruction algorithm. To account for these effects, a full JUNO simulation and reconstruction approach is employed. This enables the modeling of all relevant effects and the evaluation of associated inputs to accurately estimate the energy resolution. The study reveals an energy resolution of 2.95% at 1 MeV. Furthermore, the study assesses the contribution of major effects to the overall energy resolution budget. This analysis serves as a reference for interpreting future measurements of energy resolution during JUNO data taking. Moreover, it provides a guideline in comprehending the energy resolution characteristics of liquid scintillator-based detectors

Determination of the number of ψ(3686) events taken at BESIII

The number of ψ(3686) events collected by the BESIII detector during the 2021 run period is determined to be (2259.3±11.1)×106 by counting inclusive ψ(3686) hadronic events. The uncertainty is systematic and the statistical uncertainty is negligible. Meanwhile, the numbers of ψ(3686) events collected during the 2009 and 2012 run periods are updated to be (107.7±0.6)×106 and (345.4±2.6)×106, respectively. Both numbers are consistent with the previous measurements within one standard deviation. The total number of ψ(3686) events in the three data samples is (2712.4±14.3)×10^