Analysis and Forecasting of Population Mortality and Life Lost Trend due to Lung Cancer among Xiamen Residents

背景与目的近年来肺癌发病率和死亡率不断上升,已成为我国恶性肿瘤的首位死因。本研究旨在探讨厦门市居民肺癌死亡和减寿的变化趋势,以期为厦门市肺癌综合防治工作提供依据。方法收集整理2005年-2014年厦门市居民肺癌死亡资料计算死亡率、平均减寿年数(average potential life lost,AYLL)、死亡率年均变化百分比等评价指标,用GM(1,1)模型对死亡率和AYLL进行预测。结果 2005年-2014年,厦门市居民肺癌死亡率28.58/10万,年均上升4.86%,男性死亡率是女性的2.90倍;AYLL为7.8年,存在下降趋势。GM(1,1)模型预测值与实际值平均相对误差2.16%-8.83%,预测2015年-2019年肺癌死亡率和AYLL值均有所上升。结论厦门市肺癌死亡率逐年升高,未来肺癌死亡率和人均减寿数都有上升趋势,应重视肺癌的预防控制工作。Background and objective In recent years, the incidence and mortality of lung cancer is rising. It has become the leading cause of death of malignant tumors in China. The aim of this study is to explore the trend of mortality and years of life lost due to lung cancer in residents in Xiamen, so as to provide the basis data on preventing lung cancer in Xiamen. Methods The data of residents in Xiamen dying of lung cancer from 2005 to 2014 was collected and cleared up to calculate the evaluation indexes including the mortality rate, the average potential life lost(AYLL), and the average percentage change(APC) of mortality rate. GM(1,1) model was used to predict the future mortality and AYLL. Results From 2005 to 2014, the average mortality rate of lung cancer in residents in Xiamen was 28.58 per 100,000 persons, of which in male was 2.90 times as that in female. The APC was 4.86%. The AYLL, which was 7.8 years, had decline trend from 2005 to 2014. The mean absolute percentage errors between observed values and fitted values were 2.16%-8.83%. The mortality rate and AYLL of lung cancer in residents in Xiamen would increase from 2015 to 2019. Conclusion The mortality of lung cancer increased year by year in Xiamen. There are both increasing trend of mortality and years of life lost in future. So we should pay more attentions on preventing and curing of lung cancer.福建省卫生厅青年科研课题(No.2014-2-78)资助~

Analysis on lung cancer mortality and years of life lost in urban and rural residents of Xiamen city

目的了解厦门市城乡居民肺癌死亡和减寿趋势变化,为厦门市肺癌预防控制工作提供依据。方法通过厦门市死因监测系统收集2003-2014年厦门市城乡居民肺癌死亡资料,采用SAS 9.1软件对死亡率、标化死亡率(SMR)、潜在寿命损失年(PYLL)、寿命损失率(PYLLR),标化寿命损失率(SPYLLR)、平均减寿年数(AYLL)、死亡率年均变化百分比等指标进行评价。结果 2003-2014年厦门市城市、农村居民肺癌死亡率分别为29.64/10万和25.40/10万,年均分别上升5.63%和4.98%;标化死亡率分别为32.78/10万和27.13/10万;无论城市、农村,肺癌标化死亡率男性均明显高于女性;死亡率均随着年龄的增长而升高,在70~79岁年龄组达到高峰。城市居民肺癌所致PYLL、PYLLR、SPYLLR、AYLL分别为27 944人年、2.11‰、2.41‰和7.12年,而农村分别为17 807人年、2.47‰、2.69‰和9.74年。结论厦门市城乡居民肺癌死亡呈上升趋势和老龄化趋势,应以男性、老年人群作为重点关注对象,重视肺癌防治工作。Objective To explore the trend of lung cancer mortality and years of life lost in urban and rural residents of Xiamen,and to provide the basis data for preventing lung cancer in Xiamen. Methods The lung cancer mortality data of urban and rural residents in Xiamen during 2003 to 2014 were collected. The SAS 9.1 software was used to assess the mortalities, the standard mortality rates(SMR), the potential years of life lost(PYLL), the rates of potential years of life lost(PYLLR), the standard rate of potential years of life lost(SPYLLR) the average potential life lost(AYLL) and the average percentage change(APC) of mortalities.Results During 2003 to 2014, the average lung cancer mortalities of urban and rural residents in Xiamen were 29.64/100 000 and25.40/100 000, respectively; the APCs were 5.63% and 4.98%, respectively; the SMRs were 32.78/100 000 and 27.13/100 000 persons, respectively; the lung cancer mortality in males was significantly higher than that in females, and the mortalities increased with age; the lung cancer mortality in 70-79 years old group was the highest. The PYLL, PYLLR, SPYLLR, and AYLL due to lung cancer in urban residents were 27 944 person years, 2.11‰, 2.41‰ and 7.12 years, respectively; and the PYLL, PYLLR, SPYLLR,and AYLL due to lung cancer in rural residents were 17 807 person years, 2.47‰, 2.69‰, and 9.74 years, respectively.Conclusion The lung cancer mortalities in urban and rural residents of Xiamen city had the increasing and aging trend. More attention should be paid to males and elders for preventing and treating of lung cancer.福建省卫生厅青年科研课题(2014-2-78

厦门市沿海产盐区与非产盐区居民膳食碘摄入量调查

目的调查厦门市沿海产盐区与非产盐区居民的膳食碘摄入量。方法在厦门市的沿海产盐区与非产盐区各抽取30户居民,采用3日称重和记账法进行家庭住户膳食调查,采集食物样品检测碘含量,计算平均每标准人日膳食碘摄入量。结果调查60户家庭仅有6户家庭有食用海带、紫菜海藻类食物,占调查户数的1/10。在现有食用加碘食盐情况下,沿海产盐区与非产盐区大部分居民平均每标准人日碘的膳食摄入量分别为283.42μg、185.43μg,达到ICCIDD、WHO、UNICEF和中国营养协会制定的RNI标准,且未超过上述UL值。膳食碘的主要贡献来自于食盐。结论在食用加碘食盐的情况下,厦门市沿海产盐区与非产盐区居民的膳食碘摄入量是充足且安全的,不存在碘过量的问题

Prediction of Mortality and Years of Life Lost due to Liver Cancer in Residents in Xiamen

目的探讨厦门市居民肝癌死亡的变化趋势,为厦门市肝癌综合防治工作提供依据。方法收集整理2004-2013年厦门市居民肝癌死亡资料计算死亡率、平均减寿年数(AYLL)、死亡率年均变化百分比等评价指标,用GM(1,1)模型对死亡率和AYLL进行预测。结果 2004-2013年,厦门市居民因肝癌死亡率31.95/10万,年均下降2.0%,男性死亡率是女性的3.81倍;AYLL为16.74年,存在下降趋势。GM(1,1)模型预测值与实际值平均相对误差2.27%~3.71%,预测2014-2018年肝癌死亡率和AYLL值均有所下降。结论 GM(1,1)模型可用于厦门市居民肝癌死亡率和减寿趋势预测,未来肝癌死亡虽有下降趋势,但仍呈高位态势,仍要重视肝癌的预防控制工作。Objective To explore the trend of mortality and years of life lost due to liver cancer in residents in Xiamen,so as to provide the basis data on preventing liver cancer in Xiamen. Methods The data of residents in Xiamen dying of liver cancer from 2004 to 2013 was collected and cleared up to calculate the evaluation indexes including the mortality rate, the average potential life lost( AYLL), and the average percentage change( APC) of mortality rate. GM( 1,1) model was used to predict the future mortality and AYLL. Results From 2004 to 2013, the average mortality rate of liver cancer in residents in Xiamen was 31. 95 per 100000 persons.,of which in male was 3. 81 times as that in female. The APC was 2. 0%. The AYLL,which was16. 74 years,had decline trend from 2004 to 2013. The mean absolute percentage errors between observed values and fitted values were 2. 27%- 3. 71%. The mortality rate and AYLL of liver cancer in residents in Xiamen would decrease from 2014 to 2018.Conclusion GM( 1,1) model could be used to forecast the trend of mortality and years of life lost due to liver cancer in residents in Xiamen. Though there is descending trend of mortality and years of life lost in future, the value of mortality is still high.So we still have to pay more attentions on preventing and curing of liver cancer

An Analysis on Incidence of Malignancies from 2007 to 2009 in Xiamen City,Fujian Province

[目的]了解厦门市居民恶性肿瘤发病水平、确定恶性肿瘤发病的分布状态,探讨厦门市居民恶性肿瘤发病流行病学特征,为科学实施肿瘤防治措施和规划提供依据,促进肿瘤的预防与控制。[方法]对2007~2009年厦门市二级以上医院登记报告的居民恶性肿瘤发病资料进行ICd-10分类,按地区、时间、年龄、性别、恶性肿瘤类型等进行描述性分析。[结果]2007~2009年厦门市恶性肿瘤累计发病数14506例。粗发病率278.37/10万,中标率183.35/10万。男女性恶性肿瘤中标率分别为211.30/10万和150.87/10万。男女性别比1.47。各年龄组发病率不同,35岁以上发病数占总病例数的93.03%。思明区发病率占全厦门市恶性肿瘤发病数的46.79%。厦门市居民最常见的4种恶性肿瘤为肺癌、肝癌、肠癌和食管癌,约占全部病例的43.41%;其中男性恶性肿瘤主要为肺癌,女性为乳腺癌。[结论]厦门市恶性肿瘤发病率处于全国中高水平,且发病呈上升趋势,应有针对性地采取预防措施

厦门市2004-2009年居民恶性肿瘤死亡原因分析

目的了解厦门市居民2004-2009年恶性肿瘤死亡的原因和分布特征,为恶性肿瘤的防治工作提供依据。方法应用死亡率、标化死亡率、潜在减寿年数(PYLL)及潜在减寿率(PYLL率)等指标分析居民恶性肿瘤死亡情况。结果恶性肿瘤年平均死亡率为148.07/10万,PYLL率为21.68‰,均居全死因的首位。在恶性肿瘤中,肝癌死亡率35.24/10万,居第1位,其次是肺癌、食管癌、胃癌、肠癌。1～14岁儿童、中青年、老年组的首位恶性肿瘤死因分别是白血病、肝癌、肺癌,恶性肿瘤的平均PYLL为0.13人年/人,全人群主要恶性肿瘤按PYLL率排序,依次为肝癌(0.590%)、肺癌(0.346%)、食管癌(0.334%)、胃癌(0.226%)、肠癌(0.129%)。结论恶性肿瘤是导致居民死亡的首要死因,应根据不同人群、不同肿瘤的特点,采取综合性干预措施,加强环境保护,改变不良的生活习惯,对降低居民恶性肿瘤死亡率有十分重要的意义

厦门市居民2002-2009年伤害死亡分析

目的分析厦门市居民2002-2009年伤害死亡的流行病学特征,为伤害预防和控制决策的制定提供科学依据。方法利用厦门市居民2002-2009年死亡资料,采用国际疾病分类法(ICD-10)进行编码,计算伤害的死亡率、人群分布特征和疾病负担等指标,分析导致伤害死亡的主要原因。结果 2002-2009年,厦门市伤害死亡率为43.52/10万,标化死亡率为38.40/10万,居死因顺位的第5位。潜在减寿年数(potential years of life lost,PYLL)为149 531年,PYLL率为11.85‰,平均PYLL为0.012人年/人。在伤害中,交通事故死亡率15.72/10万,居第1位,其他依次是自杀(11.04/10万)、意外跌落(7.45/10万)、溺水(2.24/10万)、意外中毒(1.32/10万)。少年儿童组首位伤害死因是溺水,中青年组为交通事故,老年组为意外跌落。结论伤害已成为厦门市居民第5位死因,不同年龄段人群伤害主要死因不同,应有针对性的采取干预措施以降低其死亡率和疾病负担

2007年厦门市湖里区伤害监测结果分析

[目的]了解厦门市湖里区伤害病例发生的情况,为制订干预措施提供科学依据。[方法]用分层随机抽样方法,抽取二级、三级医院各1所为哨点监测医院。[结果]全年共监测病例36 845例,男∶女为2.3∶1;导致伤害前3位依次为钝器伤(32.6%)、刀/锐器伤(24.9%)和跌倒/坠落(22.3%);主要为生产运输设备操作及有关人员(35.2%)、商业服务业人员(15.3%)和办事和有关人员(12.2%);伤害主要发生在5～10月(56.9%);日发生的高峰时间为7～12时和17～20时(61.0%)。[结论]青壮年是伤害防治的重点人群,预防和控制职业伤害是干预的重点,加强生产安全保护措施和创造安全的环境是主要的预防措施

厦门市儿童溺水死亡流行病学调查分析

目的了解厦门市儿童溺水死亡(溺死)的流行病学特征及危险因素,探索有效的干预措施。方法采用问卷调查收集溺死儿童资料,用HIErArCHICAl MOdEl法和gEnErAl MOdEl法对危险因素进行筛选分析。结果共收集2001-2009年溺水死亡儿童95例,其中男孩占74.7%,小学生占63.2%,不会游泳者占78.9%;主要发生地在池塘、溪流或沟渠;70.5%发生在夏秋季;80%儿童溺死时无人监管;溺死儿童的父母多数文化程度低,家庭收入偏低;死亡的危险因素为:男孩、4~6年级小学生、父亲在40岁以上和下午。结论应采取有针对性的干预措施,控制危险因素,减少儿童溺死的发生

Investigation on the iodine status among the population in rural and urban areas of Xiamen in 2013

目的了解碘盐新标准实施后农村和城市人群的碘营养现况,为有效落实科学补碘防控策略提供依据。方法在农村和城市调查点各抽取1个镇的1个村,在每个村采集自来水厂出厂水和末梢水各2份;抽取30户以上居民,采集各户家庭食用盐,用3日称量法测算各户居民人均食盐摄入量;抽取18-45岁成人50名以上,采集尿样。在抽中的镇随机选择8-10岁儿童(男女各半)、孕妇和哺乳期妇女各50名以上,采集尿样。测定盐碘、尿碘和水碘含量。结果农村和城市自来水末梢水水碘含量均值分别为4.5μg/L和6.0μg/L;居民人均每日食用盐摄入量中位数分别为7.0和5.6g;8~10岁儿童尿碘中位数分别为152.0和181.2μg/L;哺乳妇尿碘中位数分别为108.3和107.7μg/L;18-45岁成人尿碘中位数分别为121.1和147.4μg/L;孕妇尿碘中位数分别为116.0和112.2μg/L,尿碘含量低于150μg/L的比例分别达67.9%和64%;除农村人均每日食用盐摄入量高于城市,农村18-45岁成人尿碘水平低于城市外,其他指标农村和城市间差异无显著性。结论厦门市仍是缺碘地区,在现有碘盐标准下,8-10岁儿童、18-45岁成人、哺乳期妇女的碘营养处于适宜水平,但孕妇的碘营养不足,要开展针对孕期人群的碘营养监测和指导,杜绝碘缺乏所造成的危害。Objective To gain knowledge of the iodine status among the population in rural and urban areas after the implement of new standard for edible salt and to provide scientific evidence for the initiative of the iodine supplement strategy. Method 1 village / community was selected randomly from rural and urban area as research site respectively. 2 samples of treated water and tap water were collected respectively in both sites, 30 + houses were enrolled randomly and edible salt samples were collected. 3days weighed record was employed to estimate average salt daily intake. Urine sample was collected from 50 + adults aged from 18 to 45. Identical sample was also collected from 50 + children aged from 8 to 10( same amount of subjects in both genders),pregnant women, and lactating women respectively. Iodine level of water, salt, and urine was determined by laboratory assay.Results The iodine concentration of tap water in rural and urban areas was 4. 5 μg / L and 6. 0 μg / L,respectively. The median of average iodine intake in rural and urban areas was 7. 0 g and 5. 6 g, respectively. The median in urine iodine was 152. 0 μg / L and 181. 2 μg / L,respectively. This measurement in lactating women was 108. 3 μg / L and 107. 7 μg / L,respectively. And it was121. 1 μg / L and 147. 4 μg / L in adults aged 18 to 45, respectively. As for the pregnant women, the iodine level reached 116. 0μg /L and 112. 2 μg /L,respectively. The proportion of subjects has urine iodine level less than 150 μg /L reached 67. 9 % and 64 %, respectively. The average salt intake in rural area was higher than urban significantly, and the urine iodine level in adults aged 18 to 45 from rural area was significantly lower than urban. No significance was found in other comparison. Conclusion Through our investigation,Xiamen is still an iodine deficiency area. Under the implement of new edible salt standard, the iodine status in children aged 8 to 10, adults aged 18 to 45 and lactating women was adequate, however, we found that pregnant women enrolled in our study have iodine deficiency in some degrees. Therefore the iodine surveillance and dietary guidance should be performed among pregnant women to eliminate the harm caused by iodine deficiency