Modelling and simulating change in reforesting mountain landscapes using a social-ecological framework

Natural reforestation of European mountain landscapes raises major environmental and societal issues. With local stakeholders in the Pyrenees National Park area (France), we studied agricultural landscape colonisation by ash (Fraxinus excelsior) to enlighten its impacts on biodiversity and other landscape functions of importance for the valley socio-economics. The study comprised an integrated assessment of land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) since the 1950s, and a scenario analysis of alternative future policy. We combined knowledge and methods from landscape ecology, land change and agricultural sciences, and a set of coordinated field studies to capture interactions and feedback in the local landscape/land-use system. Our results elicited the hierarchically-nested relationships between social and ecological processes. Agricultural change played a preeminent role in the spatial and temporal patterns of LUCC. Landscape colonisation by ash at the parcel level of organisation was merely controlled by grassland management, and in fact depended on the farmer's land management at the whole-farm level. LUCC patterns at the landscape level depended to a great extent on interactions between farm household behaviours and the spatial arrangement of landholdings within the landscape mosaic. Our results stressed the need to represent the local SES function at a fine scale to adequately capture scenarios of change in landscape functions. These findings orientated our modelling choices in the building an agent-based model for LUCC simulation (SMASH - Spatialized Multi-Agent System of landscape colonization by ASH). We discuss our method and results with reference to topical issues in interdisciplinary research into the sustainability of multifunctional landscapes

Multiscale Drivers of Water Chemistry of Boreal Lakes and Streams

The variability in surface water chemistry within and between aquatic ecosystems is regulated by many factors operating at several spatial and temporal scales. The importance of geographic, regional-, and local-scale factors as drivers of the natural variability of three water chemistry variables representing buffering capacity and the importance of weathering (acid neutralizing capacity, ANC), nutrient concentration (total phosphorus, TP), and importance of allochthonous inputs (total organic carbon, TOC) were studied in boreal streams and lakes using a method of variance decomposition. Partial redundancy analysis (pRDA) of ANC, TP, and TOC and 38 environmental variables in 361 lakes and 390 streams showed the importance of the interaction between geographic position and regional-scale variables. Geographic position and regional-scale factors combined explained 15.3% (streams) and 10.6% (lakes) of the variation in ANC, TP, and TOC. The unique variance explained by geographic, regional, and local-scale variables alone was <10%. The largest amount of variance was explained by the pure effect of regional-scale variables (9.9% for streams and 7.8% for lakes), followed by local-scale variables (2.9% and 5.8%) and geographic position (1.8% and 3.7%). The combined effect of geographic position, regional-, and local-scale variables accounted for between 30.3% (lakes) and 39.9% (streams) of the variance in surface water chemistry. These findings lend support to the conjecture that lakes and streams are intimately linked to their catchments and have important implications regarding conservation and restoration (management) endeavors

Trees Wanted—Dead or Alive! Host Selection and Population Dynamics in Tree-Killing Bark Beetles

Bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae) feed and breed in dead or severely weakened host trees. When their population densities are high, some species aggregate on healthy host trees so that their defences may be exhausted and the inner bark successfully colonized, killing the tree in the process. Here we investigate under what conditions participating with unrelated conspecifics in risky mass attacks on living trees is an adaptive strategy, and what this can tell us about bark beetle outbreak dynamics. We find that the outcome of individual host selection may deviate from the ideal free distribution in a way that facilitates the emergence of tree-killing (aggressive) behavior, and that any heritability on traits governing aggressiveness seems likely to exist in a state of flux or cycles consistent with variability observed in natural populations. This may have implications for how economically and ecologically important species respond to environmental changes in climate and landscape (forest) structure. The population dynamics emerging from individual behavior are complex, capable of switching between “endemic” and “epidemic” regimes spontaneously or following changes in host availability or resistance. Model predictions are compared to empirical observations, and we identify some factors determining the occurrence and self-limitation of epidemics

Development of Secondary Woodland in Oak Wood Pastures Reduces the Richness of Rare Epiphytic Lichens

Wooded pastures with ancient trees were formerly abundant throughout Europe, but during the last century, grazing has largely been abandoned often resulting in dense forests. Ancient trees constitute habitat for many declining and threatened species, but the effects of secondary woodland on the biodiversity associated with these trees are largely unknown. We tested for difference in species richness, occurrence, and abundance of a set of nationally and regionally red-listed epiphytic lichens between ancient oaks located in secondary woodland and ancient oaks located in open conditions. We refined the test of the effect of secondary woodland by also including other explanatory variables. Species occurrence and abundance were modelled jointly using overdispersed zero-inflated Poisson models. The richness of the red-listed lichens on ancient oaks in secondary woodland was half of that compared with oaks growing in open conditions. The species-level analyses revealed that this was mainly the result of lower occupancy of two of the study species. The tree-level abundance of one species was also lower in secondary woodland. Potential explanations for this pattern are that the study lichens are adapted to desiccating conditions enhancing their population persistence by low competition or that open, windy conditions enhance their colonisation rate. This means that the development of secondary woodland is a threat to red-listed epiphytic lichens. We therefore suggest that woody vegetation is cleared and grazing resumed in abandoned oak pastures. Importantly, this will also benefit the vitality of the oaks

Connectivity and zebra mussel invasion offer short‐term buffering of eutrophication impacts on floodplain lake landscape biodiversity

Aim To investigate if connectivity and zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) occurrence can mitigate effects of eutrophication in a lowland lake landscape. Location Upper Lough Erne, Northern Ireland, UK. Methods Data on environment, macrophytes and invertebrates were assembled for three basins of a large central lake and its satellite floodplain lakes via field surveys and palaeolimnological analyses. Space–time interaction analyses of palaeoecological data were compared pre‐1950 and post‐1950. Multivariate analyses examined how connectivity, environment and zebra mussels influenced contemporary lake communities, and explain their divergence from historical communities in the past. Results Pre‐1950, we found high community variation across sites and low within‐lake variation in macrophytes, but progressive eutrophication accentuated within‐lake community variation after 1950. Partitioning analysis showed larger effects of connectivity than nutrient enrichment on contemporary macrophyte composition, while local effects structured invertebrate communities. Three clusters of lakes were revealed according to variation in macrophyte composition, isolation from the central lake and nutrient enrichment: Group 1– the central lake and six nearby lakes were meso‐eutrophic (TP = 66.7 ± 47.6 μg/L; TN = 0.79 ± 0.41 mg/L) and had the highest zebra mussel abundances and organismal biodiversity; Group 2– Eight eutrophic (TP = 112±36.6 μg/L; TN = 1.25 ± 0.5 mg/L) and connected lakes; Group 3– Seven isolated and hypertrophic (TP = 163.2 ± 101.5 μg/L; TN = 1.55 ± 0.3 mg/L) lakes. Pre‐1950 palaeolimnological data for macrophytes and invertebrates for 5 lakes and a basin in the central lake most resembled extant lake communities of Group 1. However, palaeo‐records revealed that macrophytes and invertebrates subsequently converged towards those of Groups 2 and 3. Main conclusions Our study reveals that the central “mother” lake acts as a hub for preserving biodiversity via shared hydrological connectivity with satellite lakes and high zebra mussel abundances. These may buffer the impoverishing effects of eutrophication and sustain unexpectedly high biodiversity in the short term. Such protective buffering, however, cannot be relied upon indefinitely to conserve biodiversity

Palaeoclimate inferred from δ18O and palaeobotanical indicators in freshwater tufa of Lake Äntu Sinijärv, Estonia

We investigated a 3.75-m-long lacustrine sediment record from Lake Äntu Sinijärv, northern Estonia, which has a modeled basal age >12,800 cal yr BP. Our multi-proxy approach focused on the stable oxygen isotope composition (δ18O) of freshwater tufa. Our new palaeoclimate information for the Eastern Baltic region, based on high-resolution δ18O data (219 samples), is supported by pollen and plant macrofossil data. Radiocarbon dates were used to develop a core chronology and estimate sedimentation rates. Freshwater tufa precipitation started ca. 10,700 cal yr BP, ca. 2,000 years later than suggested by previous studies on the same lake. Younger Dryas cooling is documented clearly in Lake Äntu Sinijärv sediments by abrupt appearance of diagnostic pollen (Betula nana, Dryas octopetala), highest mineral matter content in sediments (up to 90 %) and low values of δ18O (less than −12 ‰). Globally recognized 9.3- and 8.2-ka cold events are weakly defined by negative shifts in δ18O values, to −11.3 and −11.7 ‰, respectively, and low concentrations of herb pollen and charcoal particles. The Holocene thermal maximum (HTM) is palaeobotanically well documented by the first appearance and establishment of nemoral thermophilous taxa and presence of water lilies requiring warm conditions. Isotope values show an increasing trend during the HTM, from −11.5 to −10.5 ‰. Relatively stable environmental conditions, represented by only a small-scale increase in δ18O (up to 1 ‰) and high pollen concentrations between 5,000 and 3,000 cal yr BP, were followed by a decrease in δ18O, reaching the most negative value (−12.7 ‰) recorded in the freshwater tufa ca. 900 cal yr BP

Phenotypic Plasticity in Response to the Social Environment: Effects of Density and Sex Ratio on Mating Behaviour Following Ecotype Divergence

The ability to express phenotypically plastic responses to environmental cues might be adaptive in changing environments. We studied phenotypic plasticity in mating behaviour as a response to population density and adult sex ratio in a freshwater isopod (Asellus aquaticus). A. aquaticus has recently diverged into two distinct ecotypes, inhabiting different lake habitats (reed Phragmites australis and stonewort Chara tomentosa, respectively). In field surveys, we found that these habitats differ markedly in isopod population densities and adult sex ratios. These spatially and temporally demographic differences are likely to affect mating behaviour. We performed behavioural experiments using animals from both the ancestral ecotype (“reed” isopods) and from the novel ecotype (“stonewort” isopods) population. We found that neither ecotype adjusted their behaviour in response to population density. However, the reed ecotype had a higher intrinsic mating propensity across densities. In contrast to the effects of density, we found ecotype differences in plasticity in response to sex ratio. The stonewort ecotype show pronounced phenotypic plasticity in mating propensity to adult sex ratio, whereas the reed ecotype showed a more canalised behaviour with respect to this demographic factor. We suggest that the lower overall mating propensity and the phenotypic plasticity in response to sex ratio have evolved in the novel stonewort ecotype following invasion of the novel habitat. Plasticity in mating behaviour may in turn have effects on the direction and intensity of sexual selection in the stonewort habitat, which may fuel further ecotype divergence

Chironomid-based palaeotemperature estimates for northeast Finland during Oxygen Isotope Stage 3.

Quantitative palaeotemperature estimates for the earlier part of Oxygen Isotope Stage (OIS-) 3 are inferred from subfossil chironomid remains. The high-latitudinal study site of Sokli, northeast Finland, provides for a unique lacustrine deposit covering the earlier part of OIS-3, and the chironomid remains found in the sediments show that a shallow lake with a diverse fauna was present at the study site throughout the record. Using a Norwegian calibration data set as a modern analogue, mean July air temperatures are reconstructed. The chironomid-inferred July air temperatures are surprisingly high, reaching values similar to the current temperature at the study site. Other proxies that were applied to the sediments included the analysis of botanical and zoological macro-remains, and our results concur with temperature estimates derived from climate indicator taxa. Summer temperatures for interstadial conditions, reconstructed with climate models, are as high as our proxy-based palaeotemperatures

Surface Covering of Downed Logs: Drivers of a Neglected Process in Dead Wood Ecology

Many species use coarse woody debris (CWD) and are disadvantaged by the forestry-induced loss of this resource. A neglected process affecting CWD is the covering of the surfaces of downed logs caused by sinking into the ground (increasing soil contact, mostly covering the underside of the log), and dense overgrowth by ground vegetation. Such cover is likely to profoundly influence the quality and accessibility of CWD for wood-inhabiting organisms, but the factors affecting covering are largely unknown. In a five-year experiment we determined predictors of covering rate of fresh logs in boreal forests and clear-cuts. Logs with branches were little covered because they had low longitudinal ground contact. For branchless logs, longitudinal ground contact was most strongly related to estimated peat depth (positive relation). The strongest predictor for total cover of branchless logs was longitudinal ground contact. To evaluate the effect on cover of factors other than longitudinal ground contact, we separately analyzed data from only those log sections that were in contact with the ground. Four factors were prominent predictors of percentage cover of such log sections: estimated peat depth, canopy shade (both increasing cover), potential solar radiation calculated from slope and slope aspect, and diameter of the log (both reducing cover). Peat increased cover directly through its low resistance, which allowed logs to sink and soil contact to increase. High moisture and low temperatures in pole-ward facing slopes and under a canopy favor peat formation through lowered decomposition and enhanced growth of peat-forming mosses, which also proved to rapidly overgrow logs. We found that in some boreal forests, peat and fast-growing mosses can rapidly cover logs lying on the ground. When actively introducing CWD for conservation purposes, we recommend that such rapid covering is avoided, thereby most likely improving the CWD's longevity as habitat for many species