Advanced Methods for Photovoltaic Output Power Forecasting: A Review

Forecasting is a crucial task for successfully integrating photovoltaic (PV) output power into the grid. The design of accurate photovoltaic output forecasters remains a challenging issue, particularly for multistep-ahead prediction. Accurate PV output power forecasting is critical in a number of applications, such as micro-grids (MGs), energy optimization and management, PV integrated in smart buildings, and electrical vehicle chartering. Over the last decade, a vast literature has been produced on this topic, investigating numerical and probabilistic methods, physical models, and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. This paper aims at providing a complete and critical review on the recent applications of AI techniques; we will focus particularly on machine learning (ML), deep learning (DL), and hybrid methods, as these branches of AI are becoming increasingly attractive. Special attention will be paid to the recent development of the application of DL, as well as to the future trends in this topic

Hybrid Advanced Optimization Methods with Evolutionary Computation Techniques in Energy Forecasting

More accurate and precise energy demand forecasts are required when energy decisions are made in a competitive environment. Particularly in the Big Data era, forecasting models are always based on a complex function combination, and energy data are always complicated. Examples include seasonality, cyclicity, fluctuation, dynamic nonlinearity, and so on. These forecasting models have resulted in an over-reliance on the use of informal judgment and higher expenses when lacking the ability to determine data characteristics and patterns. The hybridization of optimization methods and superior evolutionary algorithms can provide important improvements via good parameter determinations in the optimization process, which is of great assistance to actions taken by energy decision-makers. This book aimed to attract researchers with an interest in the research areas described above. Specifically, it sought contributions to the development of any hybrid optimization methods (e.g., quadratic programming techniques, chaotic mapping, fuzzy inference theory, quantum computing, etc.) with advanced algorithms (e.g., genetic algorithms, ant colony optimization, particle swarm optimization algorithm, etc.) that have superior capabilities over the traditional optimization approaches to overcome some embedded drawbacks, and the application of these advanced hybrid approaches to significantly improve forecasting accuracy

Forecasting methods in energy planning models

Energy planning models (EPMs) play an indispensable role in policy formulation and energy sector development. The forecasting of energy demand and supply is at the heart of an EPM. Different forecasting methods, from statistical to machine learning have been applied in the past. The selection of a forecasting method is mostly based on data availability and the objectives of the tool and planning exercise. We present a systematic and critical review of forecasting methods used in 483 EPMs. The methods were analyzed for forecasting accuracy; applicability for temporal and spatial predictions; and relevance to planning and policy objectives. Fifty different forecasting methods have been identified. Artificial neural network (ANN) is the most widely used method, which is applied in 40% of the reviewed EPMs. The other popular methods, in descending order, are: support vector machine (SVM), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), fuzzy logic (FL), linear regression (LR), genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), grey prediction (GM) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA). In terms of accuracy, computational intelligence (CI) methods demonstrate better performance than that of the statistical ones, in particular for parameters with greater variability in the source data. However, hybrid methods yield better accuracy than that of the stand-alone ones. Statistical methods are useful for only short and medium range, while CI methods are preferable for all temporal forecasting ranges (short, medium and long). Based on objective, most EPMs focused on energy demand and load forecasting. In terms geographical coverage, the highest number of EPMs were developed on China. However, collectively, more models were established for the developed countries than the developing ones. Findings would benefit researchers and professionals in gaining an appreciation of the forecasting methods, and enable them to select appropriate method(s) to meet their needs

Enhancing statistical wind speed forecasting models : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Engineering at Massey University, Manawatū Campus, New Zealand

In recent years, wind speed forecasting models have seen significant development and growth. In particular, hybrid models have been emerging since the last decade. Hybrid models combine two or more techniques from several categories, with each model utilizing its distinct strengths. Mainly, data-driven models that include statistical and Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML) models are deployed in hybrid models for shorter forecasting time horizons (< 6hrs). Literature studies show that machine learning models have gained enormous potential owing to their accuracy and robustness. On the other hand, only a handful of studies are available on the performance enhancement of statistical models, despite the fact that hybrid models are incomplete without statistical models. To address the knowledge gap, this thesis identified the shortcomings of traditional statistical models while enhancing prediction accuracy. Three statistical models are considered for analyses: Grey Model [GM(1,1)], Markov Chain, and Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing models. Initially, the problems that limit the forecasting models' applicability are highlighted. Such issues include negative wind speed predictions, failure of predetermined accuracy levels, non-optimal estimates, and additional computational cost with limited performance. To address these concerns, improved forecasting models are proposed considering wind speed data of Palmerston North, New Zealand. Several methodologies have been developed to improve the model performance and fulfill the necessary and sufficient conditions. These approaches include adjusting dynamic moving window, self-adaptive state categorization algorithm, a similar approach to the leave-one-out method, and mixed initialization method. Keeping in view the application of the hybrid methods, novel MODWT-ARIMA-Markov and AGO-HDES models are further proposed as secondary objectives. Also, a comprehensive analysis is presented by comparing sixteen models from three categories, each for four case studies, three rolling windows, and three forecasting horizons. Overall, the improved models showed higher accuracy than their counter traditional models. Finally, the future directions are highlighted that need subsequent research to improve forecasting performance further

Artificial intelligence in wind speed forecasting: a review

Wind energy production has had accelerated growth in recent years, reaching an annual increase of 17% in 2021. Wind speed plays a crucial role in the stability required for power grid operation. However, wind intermittency makes accurate forecasting a complicated process. Implementing new technologies has allowed the development of hybrid models and techniques, improving wind speed forecasting accuracy. Additionally, statistical and artificial intelligence methods, especially artificial neural networks, have been applied to enhance the results. However, there is a concern about identifying the main factors influencing the forecasting process and providing a basis for estimation with artificial neural network models. This paper reviews and classifies the forecasting models used in recent years according to the input model type, the pre-processing and post-processing technique, the artificial neural network model, the prediction horizon, the steps ahead number, and the evaluation metric. The research results indicate that artificial neural network (ANN)-based models can provide accurate wind forecasting and essential information about the specific location of potential wind use for a power plant by understanding the future wind speed values

Electricity Demand Forecasting with Use of Artificial Intelligence: The Case of Gokceada Island

This study reviews a selection of approaches that have used Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), and Multi Linear Regression (MLR) to forecast electricity demand for Gokceada Island. Artificial Neural Networks, Particle Swarm Optimization, and Linear Regression methods are frequently used in the literature. Imports, exports, car numbers, and tourist-passenger numbers are used as based on input values from 2014 to 2020 for Gokceada Island, and the electricity energy demands up to 2040 are estimated as an output value. The results obtained were analyzed using statistical error metrics such as R2, MSE, RMSE, and MAE. The confidence interval analysis of the methods was performed. The correlation matrix is used to show the relationship between the actual value and method outputs and the relationship between independent and dependent variables. It was observed that ANN yields the highest confidence interval of 95% among the method utilized, and the statistical error metrics have the highest correlation for ANN methods between electricity demand output and actual data