A Monte Carlo Model of Uncertainty in a Deterministic Hazardous Waste Transportation Risk Assessment

This thesis is aimed at developing and applying advanced modeling tools in the prediction of risk to the general public from transportation of chemical waste on public highways. The modeling tools developed can then be used to compare alternative waste management scenarios. The application considered is related to the transport of hazardous waste generated by the United States Department of Energy (DOE) to current treatment, storage, and disposal facilities. DOE is currently considering four different scenarios. The application considered can be more specifically defined as an analysis of the risk to the general public from transporting the 63 shipments of DOE generated hazardous waste designated as poison by inhalation hazards (PIH), potentially resulting in fatality, by the United States Department of Transportation (DOT) [Title 49, Code of Federal Regulations (Part 173.132)] in the 1992 fiscal year. The analysis is based on current transportation practices employed by DOE. Once the modeling tools have been developed to perform this analysis, similar analysis can be routinely carried out for other health end-points (carcinogenic effects and other adverse health effects other than cancer and lethality) and other waste management scenarios. Two types of tools have been developed, deterministic and probabilistic. Using the probabilistic modeling tool, a cumulative probability distribution of number of people impacted can be developed (for this application impacted means number of individuals experiencing potentially life-threatening health effects due to inhalation of a DOE generated PIH released as a result of a truck transportation accident). The probabilistic modeling tool developed is based upon a Monte Carlo analysis accounting for the uncertainties in the variables involved in the modeling process. The deterministic tool developed provides a simplified version of the probabilistic model such that the prediction will be one risk value which should approximate the mean of the cumulative probability distribution developed by the probabilistic model. Both the deterministic and probabilistic modeling tools require the modeling of the consequence of a release of hazardous waste. The consequence is the result of source term accident modeling (i.e., resulting from a truck accident spill) along with dispersion modeling. The source term modeling employs the use of (1) distributions of meteorological data supplied by the National Weather Service at over 60 locations uniformly distributed around the continental United States and (2) a detailed study on the US DOT HMIRS (Hazardous Materials Information Reporting System) database which encompasses information on thousands of hazardous material transportation accidents since the 1970\u27s. The study of the HMIRS database led to probability distributions on the release amounts (by transport container), breach fractions and accident time (by hour and month). A health criteria, presented at WM-94 by Hartman et. al. (1994), is used in the dispersion modeling to define human health impacts from the concentration history at each downwind location. Reasonable single values for all modeling parameters were used in the deterministic model, whereas probability distributions for release estimates and accident meteorological conditions were used for release amounts and meteorology in the probabilistic model. Realistic scenarios for the transportation accident itself were developed accounting for mixtures of chemicals released as is likely to occur. It was found that the cumulative probability distribution of the number of individuals with potentially life-threatening health effects, is highly skewed. The probability that no individuals will have potentially life-threatening health effects from these 63 shipments is greater than 99%. Therefore the median (the 50-th percentile) of the distribution is 0, and all of the non-zero potentially life-threatening health effects are contained in the upper tail of the cumulative probability distribution (less than 1% chance of occurrence). Table 1 below presents some summary statistics compiled from the distribution. Only 3 (of the 63) shipments had the potential to affect more than 500 people in a single accident. Furthermore, only 14 shipments had the potential to affect more than 100 people. Eliminating, or at least altering the waste management of these shipments, could dramatically reduce risks by reducing the probabilities for a catastrophic accident in which more than 100 people are affected. An additional observation is that the mean of the cumulative probability distribution, 3.48E-4, is located at the 99.947-th percentile and the result of the deterministic calculations of risk, 1.74E-4 (½ of the mean), is located at the 99.941-th percentile. The Monte Carlo analysis helped to provide a great deal of perspective on the deterministic risk value. The fact that there is such a large probability of zero risk and an extremely small probability of a high risk scenario can be very useful in the decision making process

A proposed risk model and a GIS framework for hazardous materials transportation

This paper presents a Geographical Information System (GIS) based risk assessment model for road transportation of hazardous materials (hazmat). Existing and proposed risk models are applied to truck shipments of hazmat through the road network of Istanbul. Our empirical analysis on the Istanbul road network points out that different risk models usually select different routes between a given origin-destination pair. In this study, we propose a new risk assessment model named as ldquotime-based risk modelrdquo for hazmat transportation. We speculate that the proposed model is the most suitable one for the city of Istanbul and alike

On green routing and scheduling problem

The vehicle routing and scheduling problem has been studied with much interest within the last four decades. In this paper, some of the existing literature dealing with routing and scheduling problems with environmental issues is reviewed, and a description is provided of the problems that have been investigated and how they are treated using combinatorial optimization tools

A framework for probabilistic seismic risk assessment of NG distribution networks

Lifelines are essential infrastructures for human activities and the economic developm ent of a region. Lifelines vulnerability reduction is an actual question, particularly with reference to NaTech events, like earthquakes. In this regard, worldwide past seismic experiences revealed heavy damages to NG distribution networks. It is therefore essential to perform seismic risk assessment of NG buried pipelines systems with the aim to identify potential criticalities and avoid significant consequences. For such reasons, this work illustrates the proposal of a probabilistic framework for seismic risk assessment of NG lifelines. The proposed procedure is subsequently applied to a specific case study in Italy to highlight its feasibility

Ways to improve safety of a pumping-circulatory system of a drilling rig

Purpose. To modernize a pumping-circulatory system of a drilling rig in order to improve the environmental safety data, reliability, and convenience during oil well construction. Methods. Methods of system analysis of the conditions and use of different design features of facilities and equipment of pumping-circulatory systems for well washing with muds have been applied. Computer modeling has been performed to assess the risks of pumping-circulatory station operation; theoretical and experimental data have been evaluated and generalized to develop environmentally friendly pumping-circulatory system. Findings. Improved design of a pumping-circulatory system which components are made of elastic (e.g. rubber-textile) materials has been proposed; the design provides air-tightness and prevents harmful substances from penetrating into the environment. Modernized pumping-circulatory system allows obtaining efficient operation results since it meets following requirements: quick readjustment to the drilling mode under certain conditions; minimum time for transportation to the operating site, assembling and disassembling; compactness and mobility; convenient and safe labor conditions for the personnel; and considerable damage-resistance. Originality. The paper demonstrates the approach aimed at the increase of environmental safety level, labor protection, and efficiency of operating processes in terms of pumping-circulatory system based on stage-by-stage study of different sections of the equipment, technological processes, and impact of the related substances. The research has made it possible to determine the ways for the improvement of separate equipment units as well as to define their positioning and provide proper operation modes. That approach, aimed at the increase of the environmental safety level of the industry, is appropriate to be applied at other stages of the life cycle of oil and gas industry.Мета. Вдосконалення насосно-циркуляційної системи бурової установки для покращення показників екологічної безпеки, надійності та зручності при спорудженні нафтогазових свердловин. Методика. Використано методи системного аналізу умов і досвіду експлуатації різноманітних конструктивних особливостей пристроїв та обладнання насосно-циркуляційних систем для промивання свердловин буровими розчинами. Проведено комп’ютерне моделювання оцінки ризиків при роботі насосно-циркуляційної системи, а також оцінювання й узагальнення теоретичних та експериментальних даних для можливості створення екологічно безпечної насосно-циркуляційної системи. Результати. Запропоновано вдосконалену схему насосно-циркуляційної системи, особливостями якої є виконання складових з еластичного матеріалу (наприклад, гумовотканинного), який забезпечує герметичність та ізоляцію шкідливих речовин від потрапляння в навколишнє середовище. Модернізована насосно-циркуляційна система, з точки зору досягнення ефективних виробничих результатів, задовольняє наступні вимоги: оперативно переналагоджується на метод буріння, який відповідає конкретним умовам; має мінімальні витрати часу на перевезення до місця роботи, монтаж і демонтаж; є компактною для підвищення маневреності; має комфортні та безпечні умови праці для обслуговуючого персоналу; володіє мінімальною схильністю до ушкоджень. Наукова новизна. В роботі продемонстровано підхід для підвищення рівня екологічної безпеки, охорони праці та якості виробничих процесів на прикладі насосно-циркуляційної системи, який базується на поетапному дослідженні різних ділянок обладнання, технологічних процесів і впливу речовин, що їх супроводжують. Це дало можливість встановити напрями вдосконалення обладнання: підібрати найбільш відповідні матеріали для виконання окремих одиниць обладнання, визначити їх розташування та забезпечити необхідні режими роботи. Такий підхід для підвищення рівня екологічної безпеки доцільно використовувати й на інших етапах життєвого циклу нафтогазової галузі. Практична значимість. Запропонована насосно-циркуляційна система потребує мінімальних фінансових витрат на транспортування, монтаж, експлуатацію, обслуговування й демонтаж.Цель. Совершенствование насосно-циркуляционной системы буровой установки для улучшения показателей экологической безопасности, надежности и удобства при сооружении нефтегазовых скважин. Методика. Использованы методы системного анализа условий и опыта эксплуатации различных конструктивных особенностей устройств и оборудования насосно-циркуляционных систем для промывки скважин буровыми растворами. Проведено компьютерное моделирование оценки рисков при работе насосно-циркуля-ционной системы, а также оценка и обобщение теоретических и экспериментальных данных для возможности создания экологически безопасной насосно-циркуляционной системы. Результаты. Предложена усовершенствованная схема насосно-циркуляционной системы, особенностями которой является выполнение составляющих из эластичного материала (например, резинотканевого), обеспечивающего герметичность и изоляцию вредных веществ от попадания в окружающую среду. Модернизированная насосно-циркуляционная система, с точки зрения достижения эффективных производственных результатов, удовлетворяет следующим требованиям: оперативно переналаживается на метод бурения, который соответствует конкретным условиям; имеет минимальные затраты времени на перевозку до места работы, монтаж и демонтаж; является компактной для повышения маневренности; имеет комфортные и безопасные условия труда для обслуживающего персонала; обладает минимальной склонностью к повреждениям. Научная новизна. В работе продемонстрирован подход для повышения уровня экологической безопасности, охраны труда и качества производственных процессов на примере насосно-циркуляционной системы, основанный на поэтапном исследовании различных участков оборудования, технологических процессов и влиянии сопровождающих веществ. Это позволило установить направления совершенствования оборудования: подобрать наиболее подходящие материалы для выполнения отдельных единиц оборудования, определить их расположение и обеспечить необходимые режимы работы. Такой подход для повышения уровня экологической безопасности целесообразно использовать и на других этапах жизненного цикла нефтегазовой отрасли. Практическая значимость. Предложенная насосно-циркуляционная система требует минимальных финансовых затрат на транспортировку, монтаж, эксплуатацию, обслуживание и демонтаж.Authors of the paper express their gratitude to the Rector of Ivano-Frankivsk National Technical University of Oil and Gas, Academician of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor Yevstakhii Ivanovych Kryzhanivskyi for his assistance in the research

Potential Terrorist Uses of Highway-Borne Hazardous Materials, MTI Report 09-03

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has requested that the Mineta Transportation Institutes National Transportation Security Center of Excellence (MTI NTSCOE) provide any research it has or insights it can provide on the security risks created by the highway transportation of hazardous materials. This request was submitted to MTI/NSTC as a National Transportation Security Center of Excellence. In response, MTI/NTSC reviewed and revised research performed in 2007 and 2008 and assembled a small team of terrorism and emergency-response experts, led by Center Director Brian Michael Jenkins, to report on the risks of terrorists using highway shipments of flammable liquids (e.g., gasoline tankers) to cause casualties anywhere, and ways to reduce those risks. This report has been provided to DHS. The teams first focus was on surface transportation targets, including highway infrastructure, and also public transportation stations. As a full understanding of these materials, and their use against various targets became revealed, the team shifted with urgency to the far more plentiful targets outside of surface transportation where people gather and can be killed or injured. However, the team is concerned to return to the top of the use of these materials against public transit stations and recommends it as a separate subject for urgent research

WoodCircus, Underpinning the vital role of the forest-based sector in the Circular Bioeconomy. D2.2 Resource Efficiency, Side Streams and Value Chain Analysis – WP2 Final Report

202

Quantitative risk analysis for road tunnels complying with EU regulations

Tunnels have improved the connection of regions within the European Commission (EC) and have been used lately as a catalyst for economic development of previously isolated regions. However, the increasing number of these important infrastructures is raising upfront an endogenous problem, which is the severity of accidents that may occur. These risks have much greater impact when heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) or dangerous goods (DGs) are involved in the accident. As a result, the EC launched the EC Directive 2004/54/EC. In order to achieve a minimum acceptable level of safety, the EC Directive 2004/54/EC suggests, apart from the measures imposed based on tunnel characteristics, the implementation of a risk analysis in cases such as the opening of the road tunnel to DGs. The most widely accepted method for such quantitative risk analysis (QRA) is the OECD/PIARC QRA Model. This research exploits the QRA Model to perform a QRA for five illustrative cases in order to explore the sufficiency of the minimum tunnel safety measures imposed by the Directive when transportation of HGVs and DGs is allowed through the tunnel. The research concludes that, at least for tunnels with marginal values of the EC Directive classes for length and traffic, the risk exposure (F/N curves) lays over the acceptable safety limits of ALARP (as low as reasonably practicable) models. Thus, the manager of the tunnel should take seriously into account the provision of the Directive for further risk analysis and consider more safety measures as well as take into account the risk associated with the alternative routes

Improving safety in Greek road tunnels

Tunnels are regarded as one of the most important infrastructures in Europe, as they may improve the connection of regions and aid economic development through facilitating the transportation of people and goods. In order to achieve a minimum acceptable level of safety, the EC issued Directive 2004/54/EC, which describes specific safety measures that have to be taken for all road tunnels in the trans-European road network. In parallel, there are several qualitative or quantitative methods for measuring road tunnel safety, while the method that seems to be the most accepted by administrative authorities for quantitative risk analysis is the OECD/PIARC QRA Model (QRAM), which has been developed by INERIS, WS-Atkins and the Institute for Risk Research. QRAM is based on engineering software that aids quantitatively assessment of the societal risk due to transporting goods and dangerous goods with Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGV) through road tunnels. The aim of this paper is to expose the effectiveness of the measures imposed by the EC in Greek road tunnels. A typical road tunnel, as designed and implemented after Directive 2004/54/EC, is compared to the same tunnel as if it was developed before the Directive was put into action. The comparison is made on the basis of the societal risk existing in the two cases. The conclusion of the paper, based on the outcome of the risk analysis with the QRAM method, is that the safety of Greek Tunnels is significantly improved due to the implementation of the measures imposed by the EC Directive 2004/54/EC

The Role of Transportation in Campus Emergency Planning, MTI Report 08-06

In 2005, Hurricane Katrina created the greatest natural disaster in American history. The states of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama sustained significant damage, including 31 colleges and universities. Other institutions of higher education, most notably Louisiana State University (LSU), became resources to the disaster area. This is just one of the many examples of disaster impacts on institutions of higher education. The Federal Department of Homeland Security, under Homeland Security Presidential Directive–5, requires all public agencies that want to receive federal preparedness assistance to comply with the National Incident Management System (NIMS), which includes the creation of an Emergency Operations Plan (EOP). Universities, which may be victims or resources during disasters, must write NIMS–compliant emergency plans. While most university emergency plans address public safety and logistics management, few adequately address the transportation aspects of disaster response and recovery. This MTI report describes the value of integrating transportation infrastructure into the campus emergency plan, including planning for helicopter operations. It offers a list of materials that can be used to educate and inform campus leadership on campus emergency impacts, including books about the Katrina response by LSU and Tulane Hospital, contained in the report´s bibliography. It provides a complete set of Emergency Operations Plan checklists and organization charts updated to acknowledge lessons learned from Katrina, 9/11 and other wide–scale emergencies. Campus emergency planners can quickly update their existing emergency management documents by integrating selected annexes and elements, or create new NIMS–compliant plans by adapting the complete set of annexes to their university´s structures