Modeling fuzzy criteria preference to evaluate tradespace of system alternatives

2018 Summer.Includes bibliographical references.This dissertation explores techniques for evaluating system concepts using the point of diminishing marginal utility to determine a best value alternative with an optimal combination of risk, performance, reliability, and life cycle cost. The purpose of this research is to address the uncertainty of customer requirements and assess crisp and fuzzy design parameters to determine a best value system. At the time of this research, most commonly used decision analysis (DA) techniques use minimum and maximum values under a specific criterion to evaluate each alternative. These DA methods do not restrict scoring beyond the point of diminished marginal utility resulting in superfluous capabilities and overvalued system alternatives. Using these models, an alternative being evaluated could receive significantly higher scores when reported capabilities are greater than ideal customer requirements. This problem is pronounced whenever weights are applied to criteria where excessive capabilities are recorded. The techniques explored in this dissertation utilize fuzzy membership functions to restrict scoring for alternatives that provide excess capabilities beyond ideal customer requirements. This research investigates and presents DA techniques for evaluating system alternatives that determine an ideal compromise between risk, performance criteria, reliability and life cycle costs

A risk analysis methodology for micro/nano manufacturing

This research concerns the development of a risk analysis and mitigation methodology for assessing the impact of uncertainties and complexity of the design requirements arising in new process and product developments in micro and nano manufacturing. The risk analysis methodology integrates different computational approaches for process and product analysis, including the reduced order modelling using design of experiments, risk analysis using sampling-based and analytical methods and optimisation techniques. The integrated risk analysis and optimisation methodology is applied to two applications: (1) the FIB sputtering process control, and (2) a flip chip design. Three different FIB processes using different ion sources were investigated in order to evaluate their process performance with respects to different process parameter uncertainties. A critical comparison of the process capability against the specification limits of different processes was studied. As parts of the research, a new modified computational model is developed for a material sputtering process using focused ion beam (FIB). This model allows the analysis of micro- and nano-structures shape with the FIB machine controlled through multiple beam scans and different beam overlapping. The FIB model related studies also address the modelling requirements for including material re-deposition effects that occur during FIB milling. The model has been validated using an experimental test case. Good agreement is observed between the analytical shape using the model and the actual experiment. The validated model enhances the accuracy of the dwell time prediction. This approach overcomes the dependence of a trial-and-error approach of the process control in nano-manufacturing industry. The proposed methodology is also used to address a design problem of a flip chip design. A novel method for the evaluation of the environmental impact of the flip chip design in a multi-disciplinary optimisation problem is proposed. The goal is to address materials constraints due to environmental regulations and to handle different types of requirements such as the reliability and cost. An optimal flip chip design reliability function is identified. The approach allows electronics manufacturers to consider the environmental impact amongst different design alternatives at an early stage of the design of the product before any real prototyping in order to reduce the total manufacturing life cycle

Proactive Management of Pneumonia Epizootics in Bighorn Sheep in Montana—Project Update

Pneumonia epizootics are a major challenge for effective management of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis). Approximately half of the herds in Montana have suffered die-offs since the 1980s, many of which were pneumonia events. A set of models that identify risk of pneumonia and the best management decisions given that risk would be of great value for proactive management of pneumonia epizootics. Our first objective is to design and test a risk model that will help predict a herd’s risk of pneumonia. We hypothesize that various factors increase risk through pathogen exposure, pathogen spread, and disease susceptibility. Analysis of these factors comparing herds with and without recent pneumonia histories using Bayesian logistic regression will allow us to design a risk model. Our second objective is to develop a proactive decision model that incorporates estimates of pneumonia risk to help evaluate costs and benefits of alternative proactive actions appropriate to those estimates. We will use a Structured Decision Making framework, which provides a deliberative, transparent, and defensible decision-making process that is particularly valuable in complex decision-making environments such as wildlife disease management. Together the resulting risk and decision models, to be completed this year, will help managers estimate pneumonia risk and identify the best management action based on both the severity of each herd’s predicted risk and costs and benefits of competing management alternatives. Ultimately, this project will demonstrate the development and application of risk and decision models for proactive wildlife health programs in Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks

Advancing Alternative Analysis: Integration of Decision Science.

Decision analysis-a systematic approach to solving complex problems-offers tools and frameworks to support decision making that are increasingly being applied to environmental challenges. Alternatives analysis is a method used in regulation and product design to identify, compare, and evaluate the safety and viability of potential substitutes for hazardous chemicals.Assess whether decision science may assist the alternatives analysis decision maker in comparing alternatives across a range of metrics.A workshop was convened that included representatives from government, academia, business, and civil society and included experts in toxicology, decision science, alternatives assessment, engineering, and law and policy. Participants were divided into two groups and prompted with targeted questions. Throughout the workshop, the groups periodically came together in plenary sessions to reflect on other groups' findings.We conclude the further incorporation of decision science into alternatives analysis would advance the ability of companies and regulators to select alternatives to harmful ingredients, and would also advance the science of decision analysis.We advance four recommendations: (1) engaging the systematic development and evaluation of decision approaches and tools; (2) using case studies to advance the integration of decision analysis into alternatives analysis; (3) supporting transdisciplinary research; and (4) supporting education and outreach efforts

Outsourcing and acquisition models comparison related to IT supplier selection decision analysis

This paper presents a comparison of acquisition models related to decision analysis of IT supplier selection. The main standards are: Capability Maturity Model Integration for Acquisition (CMMI-ACQ), ISO / IEC 12207 Information Technology / Software Life Cycle Processes, IEEE 1062 Recommended Practice for Software Acquisition, the IT Infrastructure Library (ITIL) and the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK) guide. The objective of this paper is to compare the previous models to find the advantages and disadvantages of them for the future development of a decision model for IT supplier selection

Comparison of different Multiple-criteria decision analysis methods in the context of conceptual design: application to the development of a solar collector structure

At each stage of the product development process, the designers are facing an important task which consists of decision making. Two cases are observed: the problem of concept selection in conceptual design phases and, the problem of pre-dimensioning once concept choices are made. Making decisions in conceptual design phases on a sound basis is one of the most difficult challenges in engineering design, especially when innovative concepts are introduced. On the one hand, designers deal with imprecise data about design alternatives. On the other hand, design objectives and requirements are usually not clear in these phases. The greatest opportunities to reduce product life cycle costs usually occur during the first conceptual design phases. The need for reliable multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA) methods is thus greatest at early conceptual design phases. Various MCDA methods are proposed in the literature. The main criticism of these methods is that they usually yield different results for the same problem. In this work, an analysis of six MCDA methods (weighed sum, weighted product, Kim & Lin, compromise programming, TOPSIS, and ELECTRE I) was conducted. Our analysis was performed via an industrial case of solar collector structure development. The objective is to define the most appropriate MCDA methods in term of three criteria: (i) the consistency of the results, (ii) the ease of understanding and, (iii) the adaptation of the decision type. The results show that TOPSIS is the most consistent MCDA method in our case

Aligning a Service Provisioning Model of a Service-Oriented System with the ITIL v.3 Life Cycle

Bringing together the ICT and the business layer of a service-oriented system (SoS) remains a great challenge. Few papers tackle the management of SoS from the business and organizational point of view. One solution is to use the well-known ITIL v.3 framework. The latter enables to transform the organization into a service-oriented organizational which focuses on the value provided to the service customers. In this paper, we align the steps of the service provisioning model with the ITIL v.3 processes. The alignment proposed should help organizations and IT teams to integrate their ICT layer, represented by the SoS, and their business layer, represented by ITIL v.3. One main advantage of this combined use of ITIL and a SoS is the full service orientation of the company.Comment: This document is the technical work of a conference paper submitted to the International Conference on Exploring Service Science 1.5 (IESS 2015

Applying tropos to socio-technical system design and runtime configuration

Recent trends in Software Engineering have introduced the importance of reconsidering the traditional idea of software design as a socio-tecnical problem, where human agents are integral part of the system along with hardware and software components. Design and runtime support for Socio-Technical Systems (STSs) requires appropriate modeling techniques and non-traditional infrastructures. Agent-oriented software methodologies are natural solutions to the development of STSs, both humans and technical components are conceptualized and analyzed as part of the same system. In this paper, we illustrate a number of Tropos features that we believe fundamental to support the development and runtime reconfiguration of STSs. Particularly, we focus on two critical design issues: risk analysis and location variability. We show how they are integrated and used into a planning-based approach to support the designer in evaluating and choosing the best design alternative. Finally, we present a generic framework to develop self-reconfigurable STSs

A Decision Making System for Selecting Sustainable Technologies for Retail Buildings

CIB Publication 382: Selected papers presented at the CIB World Building Congres Construction and Society, Brisbane 5-9 May 2013 Papers from the Designated Session TG66 - Energy and the Built EnvironmentThe implementation of sustainable technologies can improve the energy and carbon efficiency of existing retail buildings. However, the selection of an appropriate sustainable technology is a complex task due to the large number of technological alternatives and decision criteria that need to be considered. Also, there exist series of uncertainties that are associated with the use of sustainable technologies, but have to be evaluated to achieve realistic and transparent results. The selection of sustainable technology is therefore most challenging. An earlier study was conducted with UK experienced practitioners including clients/developers, engineers, contractors and suppliers to identify the drivers and barriers for the use of sustainable technologies in UK retail construction. One major barrier identified from the study was the lack of a decision making tool, highlighted by both construction professionals and stakeholders in the retail industry. The large number of alternatives and potential solutions require a decision support method to be implemented. Information data on the economic variables, energy performance and impact on the environment of these systems is presently affected by vagueness and lack of knowledge. To deal with this high level of complexity and uncertainty an evaluation support approach is needed. This paper aims to develop a decision making framework to assist both retailers and construction professionals to define and evaluate the selection of sustainable technological options for delivering retail buildings. The research was carried out through a combination of a critical literature review and a survey-based study using expert opinions of retailers and contractors. The developed framework of decision criteria should provide a sustainable technology model to assist both construction professionals and stakeholders in the retail industry to systematically and effectively select the most appropriate technology. This approach should make the decision progression more transparent and facilitate sustainable development of retail buildings in achieving the carbon targets set by the UK and other governments