Using GIS to investigate spatial and temporal variations in upland rainfall.

A method is presented for conditional analysis of spatial and temporal (1961–2007) variations in rainfall under different synoptic situations and different geographic sub-regions, using Cumbria in NW England as a study area. A daily synoptic typing scheme, the Lamb Weather Catalogue, was applied to identify rainfall under three different weather types: south-westerly (SW), westerly (W) and cyclonic (C). Topographic descriptors developed using GIS were used to classify rain gauges into six geographic sub-regions: coastal, windward-lowland, windward-upland, leeward-upland, leeward-lowland, secondary upland. Examining temporal rainfall trends associated with different weather types, in different geographic sub-regions, reveals useful information on changes in rainfall processes. The total rainfall under SW and W weather types is increasing, particularly in upland regions. The increase in SW rainfall is driven by more frequent wet-days, whereas the increase in W rainfall is driven by increases in both wet-day frequency and yield per wet-day. The rainfall under C weather types is decreasing. Combining GIS and synoptic climatology gives insights into rainfall processes under a changing climate. The conditional analysis method can be applied at both local and regional scales, and its success is largely due to the ability of GIS to integrate, visualise, and efficiently model spatial data

GIS approaches to understanding connections and movement through space

The overarching theme of this work is an exploration of ways in which GIS can be used to analyse connections or movement through space in a wide variety of contexts. The published work focuses upon the application of both network and raster-based techniques at a variety of scales. A review is provided summarising the breadth of applications that currently use GIS to model connectivity or movement through space. This is followed by a series of published work in this field. This includes both raster and network approaches to assessing journey-time exposure to air pollution; exploring the impact of artificial lighting on gap crossing thresholds of bats; examining the presence of food deserts in rainforest cities; assessing urban accessibility and its influence on social vulnerability to climate shocks; and understanding of the impact of segregation on everyday patterns of mobility. With a diverse range of application areas and variety of spatial scales ranging from 2 - 605,000km2, this published work highlights the ways in which GIS can be implemented in new ways to improve understanding of connections and/or movement through space

THE EFFECTS OF LAND MANAGEMENT AND PREDICTED CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGICAL CONNECTIVITY AND DIFFUSE FINE SEDIMENT POLLUTION RISK WITHIN THE RIVER EDEN CATCHMENT.

There is a growing recognition that future management of the water quality in UK rivers will depend upon an improved understanding of the effects of projected climate change on catchment systems. Until recently, little attention has been given to the secondary effects that climate change may have. However, it is now becoming clear that successful management will depend upon research into factors beyond the primary changes in soil moisture and river flows. One area of particular concern is the way climate change may alter patterns of diffuse pollution of fine sediment, with associated impacts on river flora and fauna. If the UK is going to meet the stringent targets laid out in the EU Water Framework Directive, then urgent management of diffuse pollution is required. In 2012 only 28% of water bodies met their ecological potential or good status and 67% of river water bodies cite diffuse pollution as a key pressure which is preventing improvement and the achievement of good ecological status (Environment Agency, 2012). For management solutions to be cost-effective, they need to be targeted at the key problem areas within a catchment. This research uses the River Eden catchment in Cumbria as a test catchment and applies a hydrological simulation model, risk mapping framework and risk filter to the area in order to determine current connectivity and diffuse pollution trends. From this toolkit, projections of the future patterns of risk are calculated. The SCIMAP based toolkit predicted that the fine-sediment erosion risk varies spatially across the River Eden catchment. Locations deemed to be most at risk of causing a fine-sediment pollution issue are in the lower reaches of the catchment where intensive arable farming is found. When risks were modelled temporally, variations depending upon vegetation cover and average monthly rainfall were found. It was noted that the presence of autumn-sown crops could reduce risk over a year whilst spring-sown crops are likely to increase fine-sediment erosion risks. Several conclusions are drawn from this research: 1) it has been shown that the SCIMAP framework is an effective way of identifying critical source areas of diffuse pollution and could prove an invaluable tool to environmental managers; 2) the important role that autumn-sown crops can play in minimising erosion risk has been shown to be applicable in the River Eden catchment and the best way to incorporate this into crop cycles highlighted; 3) through the use of projected climate change data and a hydrological simulation model, it has been shown that the location of critical source areas are likely to change as a result of projected climate change and associated variability in rural land management. This highlights the need for continuous catchment-wide monitoring and management of hydrological connectivity and associated diffuse pollution risks

Knowledge of, and response to, upland flash flooding: a case study of flood risk management of the 2005 flash flood in upper Ryedale, North Yorkshire, U.K.

The dangerous hazard posed by flash flooding to upland communities is likely to increase due to climate change. The flood risk management policy approach has become predominant since the 1990s, with an emphasis on the public awareness of, and responses to, flood risks; however, the unpredictable nature of upland flash flooding means that responses to such hazards are uncertain. This thesis uses an integrated analysis of social and physical science datasets to study responses by local residents and the Environment Agency to flash flooding, using a case study of a major upland flood in North Yorkshire. Responses to flash flooding within upland communities were found to be mostly present as changes to individual behaviour and awareness. However, physical, damage reducing modifications were limited. Flash flood hazard perception was found to be linked to knowledge and experience of local flooding. Major flash flood events occurring in areas which have not experienced other recent floods are unlikely to increase perceptions or provoke responses. Although local awareness of changing weather patterns was found, supporting analyses of rainfall records, local flood risks were frequently framed in the context of river management, rather than climate change. The implementation of policy changes and responses to flash flooding by the Environment Agency will prove difficult at the local level, due to the nature of attitudes and perceptions encountered at the local level, including important differences in the perception of the flash flood hazard between local residents and representatives from nationwide organisations. Encouraging property-level modifications following flash floods, in accordance with national policies, is very difficult. In order to increase local perceptions of the flash flood hazard, the use of participatory work, focusing on long-term awareness raising and the sharing of locally held flood knowledge may be beneficial, alongside the support of existing resilience in upland communities