Подходы к диагностике согласованности данных в байесовских сетях доверия

Bayesian belief networks provide the ability to combine different types of information, e.g. statistical or expert data, allow working with incomplete or inaccurate information; they have clarity and other useful properties. Due to this, Bayesian belief networks have become a popular and highly effective tool in many fields of research. However, in many research areas data provided by the experts can be incoherent, and so in some tasks one should use tools to verify their coherence. The paper discusses examples of application of the Bayesian belief networks in medicine and public health, ecology, economics and risk analysis, functional safety, sociology, and other research areas, and shows the need to develop methods to check the coherence of initial data. The purpose of this work is to systematize problems and examples that illustrate the use of Bayesian belief networks by reviewing and to assess their use of data coherence diagnosis and its importance.Байесовские сети доверия предоставляют возможность объединения нескольких видов информации, например полученной от экспертов или статистически, позволяют работать с неполной или неточной информацией, обладают наглядностью и другими полезными свойствами. Благодаря этому они стали популярным и весьма эффективным инструментом. Однако во многих областях исследования исходные используются полученные от экспертов данные, которые могут быть не согласованы, и поэтому в некоторых задачах следует использовать инструменты для проверки их согласованности. В работе рассмотрены примеры применения аппарата байесовских сетей доверия в медицине и здравоохранении, экологии, экономике и риск-анализе, функциональной безопасности, социологии и других предметных областях и показана необходимость разработки методов для проверки согласованности исходных данных. Цель работы – систематизировать с помощью обзора примеры и задачи, в которых применяются байесовские сети доверия, чтобы оценить, в какой степени в этих задачах учитывается диагностика согласованности исходных данных, и насколько важным является ее применение

Change-Impact driven Agile Architecting.

Software architecture is a key factor to scale up Agile Software Development ASD in large softwareintensive systems. Currently, software architectures are more often approached through mechanisms that enable to incrementally design and evolve software architectures aka. agile architecting. Agile architecting should be a light-weight decision-making process, which could be achieved by providing knowledge to assist agile architects in reasoning about changes. This paper presents the novel solution of using change-impact knowledge as the main driver for agile architecting. The solution consists of a Change Impact Analysis technique and a set of models to assist agile architects in the change -decision-making- process by retrieving the change-impact architectural knowledge resulting from adding or changing features iteration after iteration. To validate our approach, we have put our solution into practice by running a project of a metering management system in electric power networks in an i-smart software factory

CernoCAMAL : a probabilistic computational cognitive architecture

This thesis presents one possible way to develop a computational cognitive architecture, dubbed CernoCAMAL, that can be used to govern artificial minds probabilistically. The primary aim of the CernoCAMAL research project is to investigate how its predecessor architecture CAMAL can be extended to reason probabilistically about domain model objects through perception, and how the probability formalism can be integrated into its BDI (Belief-Desire-Intention) model to coalesce a number of mechanisms and processes. The motivation and impetus for extending CAMAL and developing CernoCAMAL is the considerable evidence that probabilistic thinking and reasoning is linked to cognitive development and plays a role in cognitive functions, such as decision making and learning. This leads us to believe that a probabilistic reasoning capability is an essential part of human intelligence. Thus, it should be a vital part of any system that attempts to emulate human intelligence computationally. The extensions and augmentations to CAMAL, which are the main contributions of the CernoCAMAL research project, are as follows: - The integration of the EBS (Extended Belief Structure) that associates a probability value with every belief statement, in order to represent the degrees of belief numerically. - The inclusion of the CPR (CernoCAMAL Probabilistic Reasoner) that reasons probabilistically over the goal- and task-oriented perceptual feedback generated by reactive sub-systems. - The compatibility of the probabilistic BDI model with the affect and motivational models and affective and motivational valences used throughout CernoCAMAL. A succession of experiments in simulation and robotic testbeds is carried out to demonstrate improvements and increased efficacy in CernoCAMAL’s overall cognitive performance. A discussion and critical appraisal of the experimental results, together with a summary, a number of potential future research directions, and some closing remarks conclude the thesis

CernoCAMAL : a probabilistic computational cognitive architecture

This thesis presents one possible way to develop a computational cognitive architecture, dubbed CernoCAMAL, that can be used to govern artificial minds probabilistically. The primary aim of the CernoCAMAL research project is to investigate how its predecessor architecture CAMAL can be extended to reason probabilistically about domain model objects through perception, and how the probability formalism can be integrated into its BDI (Belief-Desire-Intention) model to coalesce a number of mechanisms and processes.The motivation and impetus for extending CAMAL and developing CernoCAMAL is the considerable evidence that probabilistic thinking and reasoning is linked to cognitive development and plays a role in cognitive functions, such as decision making and learning. This leads us to believe that a probabilistic reasoning capability is an essential part of human intelligence. Thus, it should be a vital part of any system that attempts to emulate human intelligence computationally.The extensions and augmentations to CAMAL, which are the main contributions of the CernoCAMAL research project, are as follows:- The integration of the EBS (Extended Belief Structure) that associates a probability value with every belief statement, in order to represent the degrees of belief numerically.- The inclusion of the CPR (CernoCAMAL Probabilistic Reasoner) that reasons probabilistically over the goal- and task-oriented perceptual feedback generated by reactive sub-systems.- The compatibility of the probabilistic BDI model with the affect and motivational models and affective and motivational valences used throughout CernoCAMAL.A succession of experiments in simulation and robotic testbeds is carried out to demonstrate improvements and increased efficacy in CernoCAMAL’s overall cognitive performance. A discussion and critical appraisal of the experimental results, together with a summary, a number of potential future research directions, and some closing remarks conclude the thesis

Approche probabiliste pour l’analyse de l’impact des changements dans les programmes orientés objet

Nous proposons une approche probabiliste afin de déterminer l’impact des changements dans les programmes à objets. Cette approche sert à prédire, pour un changement donné dans une classe du système, l’ensemble des autres classes potentiellement affectées par ce changement. Cette prédiction est donnée sous la forme d’une probabilité qui dépend d’une part, des interactions entre les classes exprimées en termes de nombre d’invocations et d’autre part, des relations extraites à partir du code source. Ces relations sont extraites automatiquement par rétro-ingénierie. Pour la mise en oeuvre de notre approche, nous proposons une approche basée sur les réseaux bayésiens. Après une phase d’apprentissage, ces réseaux prédisent l’ensemble des classes affectées par un changement. L’approche probabiliste proposée est évaluée avec deux scénarios distincts mettant en oeuvre plusieurs types de changements effectués sur différents systèmes. Pour les systèmes qui possèdent des données historiques, l’apprentissage a été réalisé à partir des anciennes versions. Pour les systèmes dont on ne possède pas assez de données relatives aux changements de ses versions antécédentes, l’apprentissage a été réalisé à l’aide des données extraites d’autres systèmes.We study the possibility of predicting the impact of changes in object-oriented code using bayesian networks. For each change type, we produce a bayesian network that determines the probability that a class is impacted given that another class is changed. Each network takes as input a set of possible relationships between classes. We train our networks using historical data. The proposed impact-prediction approach is evaluated with two different scenarios, various types of changes, and five systems. In the first scenario, we use as training data, the changes performed in the previous versions of the same system. In the second scenario training data is borrowed from systems that are different from the changed one. Our evaluation showed that, in both cases, we obtain very good predictions, even though they are better in the first scenario

A bayesian model for change impact on SW estimations

(….) This thesis focuses on these problems: first, the need to give accurate estimations to drive the decision process; second, the need to identify and perform a mental mapping of the elements involved in the design decisions; and third, the need to maintain this “network” of decisions in such a way that it is being shared by the stakeholders within a project. In order to tackle these problems, we will use Bayesian Belief Networks (in short, BBN) for representing the main concepts related to a given project, their causal relationships, as well as the associated conditional probabilities. BBNs are well-defined analysis techniques based on probability calculus that have been used for estimations in multiple areas (Kjærulff, et al., 2005). The main advantage of using BBN for project estimations and measuring change impact is that they allow the estimations to be based on uncertainty and incompleteness of the input parameters. In addition, BBN techniques allow software engineers to use an explicit representation of the causal relationships between the relevant project attributes. BBN estimations also allow us further refinement once these parameters are known. The estimation and change impact problems are related to three different areas: change impact analysis techniques allow to determine the software artifacts involved in change before the change is made; software estimations and, in particular, the use of Bayesian Belief Networks for software estimations provide the basis for estimating in advance the effort, risk, and/or quality associated; and design rationale gives us the required background for analyzing the mental process associated to software changes. In the following chapters we will provide an overview of the state of the art in these techniques.Programa Oficial de Posgrado en Ciencia y Tecnología InformáticaPresidente: María Araceli Sanchis de Miguel.- Secretario: Aurora Pérez Pérez.- Vocal: Juan Francisco Huete Guadi

Grabbing the Air Force by the Tail: Applying Strategic Cost Analytics to Understand and Manage Indirect Cost Behavior

Recent and projected reductions in defense spending are forcing the military services to develop systematic approaches to identify cost reduction opportunities and better manage financial resources. In response, the Air Force along with her sister services are developing strategic approaches to reduce front-line mission resources, commonly referred to as the Tooth . However, an underemphasized contributing source of costs are mission support activities, commonly referred to as the Tail . With the tail historically representing a sizable portion of the annual Air Force budget, strategically managing cost behavior of these indirect activities has the opportunity to generate significant cost reductions. However, very little applied or academic research have focused on advancing the knowledge behind the economics of, or the analytic techniques applied to, these activities for cost management purposes. To address this concern, this dissertation investigates i) how organizations use analytic methodologies and data sources to understand and manage cost behavior, ii) how to identify underlying cost curves of concern across tail activities, iii) how to distinguish historical relationships between the tooth and tail, iv) how to improve the performance assessment of tail activities for improved resource allocation, and v) how to provide a decision support tool for tooth-to-tail policy impact analysis

Analyse de dépendance des programmes à objet en utilisant les modèles probabilistes des entrées

La tâche de maintenance ainsi que la compréhension des programmes orientés objet (OO) deviennent de plus en plus coûteuses. L’analyse des liens de dépendance peut être une solution pour faciliter ces tâches d’ingénierie. Cependant, analyser les liens de dépendance est une tâche à la fois importante et difficile. Nous proposons une approche pour l'étude des liens de dépendance internes pour des programmes OO, dans un cadre probabiliste, où les entrées du programme peuvent être modélisées comme un vecteur aléatoire, ou comme une chaîne de Markov. Dans ce cadre, les métriques de couplage deviennent des variables aléatoires dont les distributions de probabilité peuvent être étudiées en utilisant les techniques de simulation Monte-Carlo. Les distributions obtenues constituent un point d’entrée pour comprendre les liens de dépendance internes entre les éléments du programme, ainsi que leur comportement général. Ce travail est valable dans le cas où les valeurs prises par la métrique dépendent des entrées du programme et que ces entrées ne sont pas fixées à priori. Nous illustrons notre approche par deux études de cas.The task of maintenance and understanding of object-oriented programs is becoming increasingly costly. Dependency analysis can be a solution to facilitate this engineering task. However, dependency analysis is a task both important and difficult. We propose a framework for studying program internal dependencies in a probabilistic setting, where the program inputs are modeled either as a random vector, or as a Markov chain. In that setting, coupling metrics become random variables whose probability distributions can be studied via Monte-Carlo simulation. The obtained distributions provide an entry point for understanding the internal dependencies of program elements, as well as their general behaviour. This framework is appropriate for the (common) situation where the value taken by the metric does depend on the program inputs and where those inputs are not fixed a priori. We provide a concrete illustration with two case studies

A review of software change impact analysis

Change impact analysis is required for constantly evolving systems to support the comprehension, implementation, and evaluation of changes. A lot of research effort has been spent on this subject over the last twenty years, and many approaches were published likewise. However, there has not been an extensive attempt made to summarize and review published approaches as a base for further research in the area. Therefore, we present the results of a comprehensive investigation of software change impact analysis, which is based on a literature review and a taxonomy for impact analysis. The contribution of this review is threefold. First, approaches proposed for impact analysis are explained regarding their motivation and methodology. They are further classified according to the criteria of the taxonomy to enable the comparison and evaluation of approaches proposed in literature. We perform an evaluation of our taxonomy regarding the coverage of its classification criteria in studied literature, which is the second contribution. Last, we address and discuss yet unsolved problems, research areas, and challenges of impact analysis, which were discovered by our review to illustrate possible directions for further research

Flexible Engineering System Design with Multiple Exogenous Uncertainties and Change Propagation

Ph.DDOCTOR OF PHILOSOPH