Prediction and elucidation of the population dynamics of Microcystis spp. in Lake Dianchi (China) by means of artificial neural networks

Lake Dianchi is a shallow and turbid lake, located in Southwest China. Since 1985, Lake Dianchi has experienced severe cyanabacterial blooms (dominated by Microcystis spp.). In extreme cases, the algal cell densities have exceeded three billion cells per liter. To predict and elucidate the population dynamics ofMicrocystis spp. in Lake Dianchi, a neural network based model was developed. The correlation coefficient (R 2) between the predicted algal concentrations by the model and the observed values was 0.911. Sensitivity analysis was performed to clarify the algal dynamics to the changes of environmental factors. The results of a sensitivity analysis of the neural network model suggested that small increases in pH could cause significantly reduced algal abundance. Further investigations on raw data showed that the response of Microcystis spp. concentration to pH increase was dependent on algal biomass and pH level. When Microcystis spp. population and pH were moderate or low, the response of Microcystis spp. population would be more likely to be positive in Lake Dianchi; contrarily, Microcystis spp. population in Lake Dianchi would be more likely to show negative response to pH increase when Microcystis spp. population and pH were high. The paper concluded that the extremely high concentration of algal population and high pH could explain the distinctive response of Microcystis spp. population to +1 SD (standard deviation) pH increase in Lake Dianchi. And the paper also elucidated the algal dynamics to changes of other environmental factors. One SD increase of water temperature (WT) had strongest positive relationship with Microcystis spp. biomass. Chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total phosphorus (TP) had strong positive effect on Microcystis spp. abundance while total nitrogen (TN), biological oxygen demand in five days (BOD5), and dissolved oxygen had only weak relationship with Microcystis spp. concentration. And transparency (Tr) had moderate positive relationship with Microcystis spp. concentration.Lake Dianchi is a shallow and turbid lake, located in Southwest China. Since 1985, Lake Dianchi has experienced severe cyanabacterial blooms (dominated by Microcystis spp.). In extreme cases, the algal cell densities have exceeded three billion cells per liter. To predict and elucidate the population dynamics ofMicrocystis spp. in Lake Dianchi, a neural network based model was developed. The correlation coefficient (R 2) between the predicted algal concentrations by the model and the observed values was 0.911. Sensitivity analysis was performed to clarify the algal dynamics to the changes of environmental factors. The results of a sensitivity analysis of the neural network model suggested that small increases in pH could cause significantly reduced algal abundance. Further investigations on raw data showed that the response of Microcystis spp. concentration to pH increase was dependent on algal biomass and pH level. When Microcystis spp. population and pH were moderate or low, the response of Microcystis spp. population would be more likely to be positive in Lake Dianchi; contrarily, Microcystis spp. population in Lake Dianchi would be more likely to show negative response to pH increase when Microcystis spp. population and pH were high. The paper concluded that the extremely high concentration of algal population and high pH could explain the distinctive response of Microcystis spp. population to +1 SD (standard deviation) pH increase in Lake Dianchi. And the paper also elucidated the algal dynamics to changes of other environmental factors. One SD increase of water temperature (WT) had strongest positive relationship with Microcystis spp. biomass. Chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total phosphorus (TP) had strong positive effect on Microcystis spp. abundance while total nitrogen (TN), biological oxygen demand in five days (BOD5), and dissolved oxygen had only weak relationship with Microcystis spp. concentration. And transparency (Tr) had moderate positive relationship with Microcystis spp. concentration

Spatiotemporal distribution and prediction of chlorophyll-a in Ulansuhai lake from an arid area of China

Lake Ulansuhai, a typical shallow lake in an arid area that is economically and ecologically important along the Yellow River, is currently eutrophic. Long-term (2010–2020) data on chlorophyll-a, nutrient, and environmental factors were obtained from three Lake Ulansuhai monitoring stations. The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of Chl-a were analyzed. Additionally, a hybrid evolutionary algorithm was established to simulate and predict Chl-a, and sensitivity analysis revealed the interaction between environmental factors and eutrophication. The results indicated that (1) the seasonal variation of eutrophication showed an obvious trend of spring > summer > autumn > winter, and the concentration of Chl-a in the inlet was significantly higher than that in the outlet; (2) The inlet, center, and outlet of Ulansuhai Lake are satisfactorily affected by HEA in the best suited method. The fitting coefficients (R2) of the optimal models were 0.58, 0.59, and 0.62 for the three monitoring stations, and the root mean square errors (RMSE) were 3.89, 3.21, and 3.56, respectively; (3) under certain range and threshold conditions, Chl-a increased with the increase of permanganate index, water temperature, dissolved oxygen concentration, and ammonia nitrogen concentration, but decreased with the increase of water depth, Secchi disk depth, pH, and fluoride concentration. The results indicate that the HEA can simulate and predict the dynamics of Chl-a, and identify and quantify the relationships between eutrophication and the threshold data. The research results provide theoretical basis and technical support for the prediction and have great significance for the improvement of water quality and environmental protection in arid and semi-arid inland lakes

Estimation of life-cycle costs of buildings: regression vs artificial neural network

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to compare the performance of regression and artificial-neural-networks (ANNs) methods to estimate the running cost of building projects towards improved accuracy. Design/methodology/approach – A data set of 20 building projects is used to test the performance of these two (ANNs/regression) models in estimating running cost. The concept of cost-significant-items is identified as important in assisting estimation. In addition, a stepwise technique is used to eliminate insignificant factors in regression modelling. A connection weight method is applied to determine the importance of cost factors in the performance of ANNs. Findings – The results illustrate that the value of the coefficient of determination=99.75 per cent for ANNs model(s), with a value of 98.1 per cent utilising multiple regression (MR) model(s); second, the mean percentage error (MPE) for ANNs at a testing stage is 0.179, which is less than that of the MPE gained through MR modelling of 1.28; and third, the average accuracy is 99 per cent for ANNs model(s) and 97 per cent for MR model(s). On the basis of these results, it is concluded that an ANNs model is superior to a MR model when predicting running cost of building projects. Research limitations/implications – A means for continuous improvement for the performance of the models accuracy has been established; this may be further enhanced by future extended sample. Originality/value – This work extends the knowledge base of life-cycle estimation where ANNs method has been found to reduce preparation time consumed and increasing accuracy improvement of the cost estimation

A Multiscale Analysis of the Factors Controlling Nutrient Dynamics and Cyanobacteria Blooms in Lake Champlain

Cyanobacteria blooms have increased in Lake Champlain due to excessive nutrient loading, resulting in negative impacts on the local economy and environmental health. While climate warming is expected to promote increasingly severe cyanobacteria blooms globally, predicting the impacts of complex climate changes on individual lakes is complicated by the many physical, chemical, and biological processes which mediate nutrient dynamics and cyanobacteria growth across time and space. Furthermore, processes influencing bloom development operate on a variety of temporal scales (hourly, daily, seasonal, decadal, episodic), making it difficult to identify important factors controlling bloom development using traditional methods or coarse temporal resolution datasets. To resolve these inherent problems of scale, I use 4 years of high-frequency biological, hydrodynamic, and biogeochemical data from Missisquoi Bay, Lake Champlain; 23 years of lake-wide monitoring data; and integrated process-based climate-watershed-lake models driven by regional climate projections to answer the following research questions: 1) To what extent do external nutrient inputs or internal nutrient processing control nutrient concentrations and cyanobacteria blooms in Lake Champlain; 2) how do internal and external nutrient inputs interact with meteorological drivers to promote or suppress bloom development; and 3) how is climate change likely to impact these drivers and the risk of cyanobacteria blooms in the future? I find that cyanobacteria blooms are driven by specific combinations of meteorological and biogeochemical conditions in different areas of the lake, and that in the absence of strong management actions cyanobacteria blooms are likely to become more severe in the future due to climate change

Lake and catchment-scale determinants of aquatic vegetation across almost 1,000 lakes and the contrasts between lake types

Aim The factors controlling macrophyte (aquatic plant) composition are complex, recent research having shown that the well-studied effects of lake environmental factors (the so-called “environmental filter”) can be constrained by hydrological and landscape factors. We investigated the factors determining macrophyte composition in lakes over water body and catchment- scales and the transferability of this pattern across lake types. Location Almost 1000 lakes distributed across Britain. Taxon Lake macrophytes Methods Lakes were partitioned into five types based on subdivision of alkalinity and elevation gradients. Data from botanical surveys were used to compare the spatial turnover and nestedness components of beta diversity between lake types. The relative importance of lake environment (based on local physicochemical data), hydrology (e.g. lake and stream density), landscape (e.g. fragmentation indices, land cover) and spatial autocorrelation in explaining variation in macrophyte composition were derived from variance partitioning. Results Species composition showed strong spatial structuring, suggestive of overland dispersal, enhanced by spatially-correlated abiotic factors such as alkalinity and elevation. Catchment-scale factors (e.g. land use, connectivity) promoted the establishment of different communities (more or less diverse, or differing in composition) but were of secondary importance. Turnover in composition between upland lakes was lower than in other lake types, reflecting a more specialist flora and increased potential for propagule exchange due to spatial aggregation and higher hydrological connectivity. Main conclusions Vegetation composition in lakes is more spatially-structured than previously appreciated, consistent with the importance of dispersal limitation, but this does not apply evenly to all lakes, being most acute in lowland high alkalinity lakes. Thus, spatially-structured abiotic factors, such as alkalinity, influence macrophyte composition most (suggestive of niche filtering) in high alkalinity lakes where human impacts tend to be greatest, although nestedness was also lowest in such lakes. By contrast, hydrological connectivity has a proportionally stronger structuring role in upland lakes

Multi-scale effects of hydrological and landscape variables on macrophyte richness and composition in British lakes

Macrophytes are an integral component of lake littoral zones and play an irreplaceable role in maintaining the ecological balance of wetlands. Recent research has highlighted the role of lake-scale environmental factors (or “filters”) and catchment- and/or landscape-scale processes in explaining variation in macrophyte communities across different scales. In this work, the effects of land-use and connectivity on macrophyte communities were explored at two contrasting spatial scales (i.e. local catchment scale and topographic catchment scale). At the local catchment scale, the results revealed strong scale-dependency. The effects of land use on macrophyte richness were most apparent at fine spatial scales (within 0.5 to 1 km) and significantly outweighed the importance of hydrology. In terms of growth form composition, the effects of hydrological connectivity were stronger than those of land use, with the greatest effect observed at an intermediate distance (~ 5 km) from the lake. The study on the hydrologically-connected lake pairs indicated that environmental filters were more influential in explaining species turnover than lake connectivity. Interestingly, geographical connectivity explained more of the variability in species turnover than hydrological connectivity. Moreover, the relative importance of environmental filters and lake connectivity to species turnover was very sensitive to the degree of human disturbance. The multi-scale interaction analyses indicated the effect of lake alkalinity on macrophyte composition is strongly influenced by catchment scale variables including hydrological features and land use intensity. The turnover in macrophyte composition in response to variability in alkalinity was stronger in catchments with low lake and stream density and weaker in catchments with a more highly developed hydrological network. Lake abiotic variables were found to have more influence on macrophyte composition in lowland catchments with a higher intensity of human disturbance. Moreover, the catchment-scale factors promoting the establishment of different communities were found to vary between catchments depending on lake type, the degree of environmental heterogeneity and hydrological connectivity

Entwicklung eines aggregierten Modells zur Simulation der Gewässergüte in Talsperren als Baustein eines Flussgebietsmodells

Der großräumige Abbau von Braunkohle in der Lausitz führte in der Vergangenheit zu einer extremen Beeinflussung des Wasserhaushaltes im Einzugsgebiet der Spree. Mit dem Beginn der Sanierung und Flutung der Tagebaue kommt es nun langfristig zu einer verstärkten Nutzung der existierenden Oberflächengewässer und der Einbindung der entstehenden Tagebaurestseen in das Fließgewässernetz. Die Kopplung von Mengenbewirtschaftungsmodellen mit Gütemodellen berücksichtigt die Verfügbarkeit und Verteilung der begrenzten Ressource Wasser im Einzugsgebiet und der aus der Bewirtschaftung resultierenden Gewässergüte. Dies entspricht auch dem Leitbild der EU-WRRL (2000) für ein integriertes Flussgebietsmanagement, was eine einzugsgebietsbezogene Betrachtung der vorhandenen Ressourcen unter Berücksichtigung aller beeinflussten und beeinflussenden Kriterien fordert. Werden Modelle, die unterschiedlich sensitive und komplexe Systeme abbilden, miteinander gekoppelt, erfordert dies eine Anpassung der Datenstruktur und der zeitlichen Skalen. Schwerpunkt dieser Arbeit war die Entwicklung einfacher, robuster Simulationswerkzeuge für die Prognose der Gewässergüte in den Talsperren Bautzen und Quitzdorf. Als Basis diente das komplexe Standgewässergütemodell SALMO. Das Modell wurde zunächst um einfache Algorithmen ergänzt, so dass es trotz einer angepassten, stark reduzierten Datengrundlage, plausible Ergebnisse simulierte. Stochastisch erzeugte Bewirtschaftungsszenarien und die komplex simulierten Modellergebnisse bezüglich der resultierenden Gewässergüte, wurden als Trainingsdaten für ein Künstliches Neuronales Netz (ANN) genutzt. Die für beide Talsperren trainierten ANN sind als effektive Black-Box-Module in der Lage, das komplexe Systemverhalten des deterministischen Modells SALMO widerzuspiegeln. Durch eine Kopplung der entwickelten ANN mit dem Bewirtschaftungsmodell WBalMo ist es möglich, Bewirtschaftungsalternativen hinsichtlich ihrer Konsequenzen für die Gewässergüte zu bewerten. ANN sind systemgebundene Modelle, die nicht auf andere Gewässersysteme übertragen werden können. Allerdings stellt die hier erarbeitete Methodik einen fundierten Ansatz dar, der für die Entwicklung weiterer aggregierter Gütemodule im Rahmen integrierter Bewirtschaftungsmodelle angewendet werden kann.The large-scale extraction of lignite in Lusatia in the past had an extreme impact on the water balance of the Spree river catchment. The restoration and flooding of the opencast pits put heavy demand on existing surface waters for a long time period. The resulting artificial lakes have to be integrated in the riverine network. The coupling of management models and water quality models allows to consider both availability and distribution of limited water resources in the catchment and resulting water quality. This is corresponding to the principles of the EU-WFD for integrated river basin management, which is a basin-related consideration of available resources taking into account all influencing and influenced characteristics. Adjustment of data structure and time scale is necessary if models describing unequally sensitive and complex systems are to be coupled. Main focus of this task was to develop simple and robust simulation tools for the prediction of water quality in the reservoirs Bautzen and Quitzdorf. The complex water quality model SALMO served as a basis. In a first step, simple algorithms had to be amended in order to generate plausible simulation results despite of an adapted reduced data base. Stochastically generated management scenarios and complex simulated model results regarding the resulting water quality were employed as training data for an Artificial Neuronal Network (ANN). The trained ANN’s are efficient black box modules. As such they are able to mirror complex system behaviour of the deterministic model SALMO. By coupling the developed ANN with the management model WBalMo it is possible to evaluate management strategies in terms of their impact on the quality of the water bodies. ANN’s are system-linked models. A transfer to other aquatic systems is not possible. However, the methodology developed here represents an in-depth approach which is applicable to the development of further aggregated water quality models in the framework of integrated management models