Comparing Kalman Filters and Observers for Power System Dynamic State Estimation with Model Uncertainty and Malicious Cyber Attacks

Kalman filters and observers are two main classes of dynamic state estimation (DSE) routines. Power system DSE has been implemented by various Kalman filters, such as the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and the unscented Kalman filter (UKF). In this paper, we discuss two challenges for an effective power system DSE: (a) model uncertainty and (b) potential cyber attacks. To address this, the cubature Kalman filter (CKF) and a nonlinear observer are introduced and implemented. Various Kalman filters and the observer are then tested on the 16-machine, 68-bus system given realistic scenarios under model uncertainty and different types of cyber attacks against synchrophasor measurements. It is shown that CKF and the observer are more robust to model uncertainty and cyber attacks than their counterparts. Based on the tests, a thorough qualitative comparison is also performed for Kalman filter routines and observers.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1508.0725

Behavioral Theory for Stochastic Systems? A Data-driven Journey from Willems to Wiener and Back Again

The fundamental lemma by Jan C. Willems and co-workers, which is deeply rooted in behavioral systems theory, has become one of the supporting pillars of the recent progress on data-driven control and system analysis. This tutorial-style paper combines recent insights into stochastic and descriptor-system formulations of the lemma to further extend and broaden the formal basis for behavioral theory of stochastic linear systems. We show that series expansions -- in particular Polynomial Chaos Expansions (PCE) of $L^2$-random variables, which date back to Norbert Wiener's seminal work -- enable equivalent behavioral characterizations of linear stochastic systems. Specifically, we prove that under mild assumptions the behavior of the dynamics of the $L^2$-random variables is equivalent to the behavior of the dynamics of the series expansion coefficients and that it entails the behavior composed of sampled realization trajectories. We also illustrate the short-comings of the behavior associated to the time-evolution of the statistical moments. The paper culminates in the formulation of the stochastic fundamental lemma for linear (descriptor) systems, which in turn enables numerically tractable formulations of data-driven stochastic optimal control combining Hankel matrices in realization data (i.e. in measurements) with PCE concepts.Comment: 30 pages, 8 figure

Probabilistic Robustness Analysis with Aerospace Applications

This thesis develops theoretical and computational methods for the robustness analysis of uncertain systems. The considered systems are linearized and depend rationally on random parameters with an associated probability distribution. The uncertainty is tackled by applying a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE), a series expansion for random variables similar to the well-known Fourier series for periodic time signals. We consider the linear perturbations around a system's operating point, i.e., reference trajectory, both from a probabilistic and worst-case point of view. A chief contribution is the polynomial chaos series expansion of uncertain linear systems in linear fractional representation (LFR). This leads to significant computational benefits when analyzing the probabilistic perturbations around a system's reference trajectory. The series expansion of uncertain interconnections in LFR further delivers important theoretical insights. For instance, it is shown that the PCE of rational parameter-dependent linear systems in LFR is equivalent to applying Gaussian quadrature for numerical integration. We further approximate the worst-case performance of uncertain linear systems with respect to quadratic performance metrics. This is achieved by approximately solving the underlying parametric Riccati differential equation after applying a polynomial chaos series expansion. The utility of the proposed probabilistic robustness analysis is demonstrated on the example of an industry-sized autolanding system for an Airbus A330 aircraft. Mean and standard deviation of the stochastic perturbations are quantified efficiently by applying a PCE to a linearization of the system along the nominal approach trajectory. Random uncertainty in the aerodynamic coefficients and mass parameters are considered, as well as atmospheric turbulence and static wind shear. The approximate worst-case analysis is compared with Monte Carlo simulations of the complete nonlinear model. The methods proposed throughout the thesis rapidly provide analysis results in good agreement with the Monte Carlo benchmark, at reduced computational cost

Probabilistic Methods for Model Validation

This dissertation develops a probabilistic method for validation and verification (V&V) of uncertain nonlinear systems. Existing systems-control literature on model and controller V&V either deal with linear systems with norm-bounded uncertainties,or consider nonlinear systems in set-based and moment based framework. These existing methods deal with model invalidation or falsification, rather than assessing the quality of a model with respect to measured data. In this dissertation, an axiomatic framework for model validation is proposed in probabilistically relaxed sense, that instead of simply invalidating a model, seeks to quantify the "degree of validation". To develop this framework, novel algorithms for uncertainty propagation have been proposed for both deterministic and stochastic nonlinear systems in continuous time. For the deterministic flow, we compute the time-varying joint probability density functions over the state space, by solving the Liouville equation via method-of-characteristics. For the stochastic flow, we propose an approximation algorithm that combines the method-of-characteristics solution of Liouville equation with the Karhunen-Lo eve expansion of process noise, thus enabling an indirect solution of Fokker-Planck equation, governing the evolution of joint probability density functions. The efficacy of these algorithms are demonstrated for risk assessment in Mars entry-descent-landing, and for nonlinear estimation. Next, the V&V problem is formulated in terms of Monge-Kantorovich optimal transport, naturally giving rise to a metric, called Wasserstein metric, on the space of probability densities. It is shown that the resulting computation leads to solving a linear program at each time of measurement availability, and computational complexity results for the same are derived. Probabilistic guarantees in average and worst case sense, are given for the validation oracle resulting from the proposed method. The framework is demonstrated for nonlinear robustness veri cation of F-16 flight controllers, subject to probabilistic uncertainties. Frequency domain interpretations for the proposed framework are derived for linear systems, and its connections with existing nonlinear model validation methods are pointed out. In particular, we show that the asymptotic Wasserstein gap between two single-output linear time invariant systems excited by Gaussian white noise, is the difference between their average gains, up to a scaling by the strength of the input noise. A geometric interpretation of this result allows us to propose an intrinsic normalization of the Wasserstein gap, which in turn allows us to compare it with classical systems-theoretic metrics like v-gap. Next, it is shown that the optimal transport map can be used to automatically refine the model. This model refinement formulation leads to solving a non-smooth convex optimization problem. Examples are given to demonstrate how proximal operator splitting based computation enables numerically solving the same. This method is applied for nite-time feedback control of probability density functions, and for data driven modeling of dynamical systems

Recent Advances in Robust Control

Robust control has been a topic of active research in the last three decades culminating in H_2/H_\infty and \mu design methods followed by research on parametric robustness, initially motivated by Kharitonov's theorem, the extension to non-linear time delay systems, and other more recent methods. The two volumes of Recent Advances in Robust Control give a selective overview of recent theoretical developments and present selected application examples. The volumes comprise 39 contributions covering various theoretical aspects as well as different application areas. The first volume covers selected problems in the theory of robust control and its application to robotic and electromechanical systems. The second volume is dedicated to special topics in robust control and problem specific solutions. Recent Advances in Robust Control will be a valuable reference for those interested in the recent theoretical advances and for researchers working in the broad field of robotics and mechatronics

Automatic Flight Control Systems

The history of flight control is inseparably linked to the history of aviation itself. Since the early days, the concept of automatic flight control systems has evolved from mechanical control systems to highly advanced automatic fly-by-wire flight control systems which can be found nowadays in military jets and civil airliners. Even today, many research efforts are made for the further development of these flight control systems in various aspects. Recent new developments in this field focus on a wealth of different aspects. This book focuses on a selection of key research areas, such as inertial navigation, control of unmanned aircraft and helicopters, trajectory control of an unmanned space re-entry vehicle, aeroservoelastic control, adaptive flight control, and fault tolerant flight control. This book consists of two major sections. The first section focuses on a literature review and some recent theoretical developments in flight control systems. The second section discusses some concepts of adaptive and fault-tolerant flight control systems. Each technique discussed in this book is illustrated by a relevant example