The influence of demand variability on the performance of a make-to-stock queue

Variability, in general, has a deteriorating effect on the performance of stochastic inventory systems. In particular, previous results indicate that demand variability causes a performance degradation in terms of inventory related costs when production capacity is unlimited. In order to investigate the effects of demand variability in capacitated production settings, we analyze a make-to-stock queue with general demand arrival times operated according to a basestock policy. We show that when demand inter-arrival distributions are ordered in a stochastic sense, increased arrival time variability indeed leads to an augmentation of optimal base-stock levels and to a corresponding increase in optimal inventory related costs. We quantify these effects through several numerical examplesproduction/inventory; make-to-stock; base-stock; stochastic comparisons; GI/M/1, POLICIES; COSTS; SYSTEMS; LEAD

Periodic review base-stock replenishment policy with endogenous lead times.

In this paper, we consider a two stage supply chain where the retailer's inventory is controlled by the periodic review, base-stock level (R,S) replenishment policy and the replenishment lead times are endogenously generated by the manufacturer's production system with finite capacity. We extend the work of Benjaafar and Kim (2004) who study the effect of demand variability in a continuously reviewed base-stock policy with single unit demands. In our analysis, we allow for demand in batches of variable size, which is a common setting in supply chains. A procedure is developed using matrix analytic methods to provide an exact calculation of the lead time distribution, which enables the computation of the distribution of lead time demand and consequently the safety stock in an exact way instead of using approximations. Treating the lead time as an endogenous stochastic variable has a substantial impact on safety stock. We numerically show that the exogenous lead time assumption may dramatically degrade customer service.Production/inventory systems; Base-stock replenishment policy; endogenous lead times; Safety stock; Phase-type distribution; Matrix-analytical methods;

Firm Behaviour Under the Threat of Liquidation: Implications for Output, Investment & Business Cycle Transmission

Cash balances of the firm follow a diffusion process, triggering liquidation when they cross a threshold value. Access to external funds is constrained. Shareholders are impatient. With these assumptions there is a precautionary motive for retaining earnings; the internal cost of funds and local risk-aversion are decreasing functions of net worth; and, in extensions of our basic model, output and investment are increasing functions of net worth. We numerically simulate aggregate behaviour of a population of such firms. Shocks to net worth lead to substantial and prolonged deviations from steady state, consistent with a financial mechanism of business cycle transmission.Financing constraints, output, investment

VaR and Liquidity Risk.Impact on Market Behaviour and Measurement Issues.

Current trends in international banking supervision following the 1996 Amendment to the Basel Accord emphasise market risk control based upon internal Value-at-risk (VaR) models. This paper discusses the merits and drawbacks of VaR models in the light of their impact on market liquidity. After a preliminary review of basic concepts and measures regarding market risk, market friction and liquidity risk, the arguments supporting the internal models approach to supervision on market risk are discussed, in the light of the debate on the limitations and possible enhancements of VaR models. In particular, adverse systemic effects of widespread risk management practices are considered. Risk measurement models dealing with liquidity risk are then examined in detail, in order to verify their potential for application in the field. We conclude that VaR models are still far from effectively treating market and liquidity risk in their multi-faceted aspects. Regulatory guidelines are right in recognising the importance of internal risk control systems. Implementation of those guidelines might inadvertently encourage mechanic application of VaR models, with adverse systemic effects.

Managing Irrigation Risk with Inflow-Based Derivatives: The Case of Rio Mayo Irrigation District in Sonora, Mexico

Uncertain reservoir inflows represent a major source of risk for irrigated agriculture. A derivative instrument that uses reservoir inflows as the underlying variable is designed and tested with a recursive stochastic simulation of the Rio Mayo irrigations system. The results indicate that the instrument effectively protects against downside risk.Risk and Uncertainty,