An agent-based simulation of wheat based ethanol plant location decisions for Saskatchewan

First generation ethanol production has experienced rapid expansion but is now at a crossroads facing impending industry transformation. While Saskatchewan’s ethanol industry has benefited from demand and policy instruments that have guided substantial growth in recent years, changing policy and market dynamics present new challenges which are compelling the industry to adjust. This thesis examines three factors that are suspected to influence ethanol plant locational decisions. The development of an agent-based simulation model in this thesis will ascertain how transportation networks, market synergies, and subsidization influence location stability for an ethanol plant. The long term interaction of these factors is unknown, therefore do tradeoffs exist between these factors or is it conditional for all to be present? Modeling factors that affect location stability through an agent-based approach creates a dynamic framework to understand how location attributes impact an ethanol agent’s longevity. It was found that location stability is affected by an ethanol agent’s distance to both primary transportation networks as well as product markets. Surprisingly, distance to DDGS (dried distillers grain with solubles) markets, a low value by-product of ethanol production, has a profound effect on location stability. Policy instruments and industry subsidization are considered key ethanol development drivers and the surge in ethanol industry growth brought hopes of rural revitalization. In Saskatchewan, policy was developed to support small ethanol plants, those 25 Mmly (million litres per year) or smaller, aimed at increasing farmer investment and alternative markets for wheat. Measuring the effect of subsidization on location stability was fundamental to understanding how a post subsidized ethanol industry may look. The research found that subsidization of Saskatchewan’s ethanol industry dramatically affected economies of scale and location decisions, which left ethanol agents unable to compete in an increasingly competitive ethanol industry

Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy

Agricultural Economic

Global Agricultural Trade and Developing Countries

Global Agricultural Trade and Developing Countries explores the outstanding issues in global agricultural trade policy and evolving world production and trade patterns. This book presents research findings based on a series of commodity studies of significant economic importance to developing countries. Setting the stage with background chapters and investigations of cross-cutting issues, the authors describe trade and domestic policy regimes affecting agricultural and food markets and analyze product standards and compliance costs and their effects on agricultural and food trade. They then examine the impact and effectiveness of preferences and review the evidence on attempts to decouple agricultural support from agricultural output. Finally, they assess the potential gains from global liberalization in agricultural and food markets, and their sensitivity to various assumptions. Within this broad context of global agricultural policies and reforms, the authors then present detailed studies of commodity markets that feature distorted policy regimes among industrial and developing countries or that are important contributors to exports of developing countries. The commodities analyzed are sugar, dairy, rice, wheat, groundnuts, fruits and vegetables, cotton, seafood, and coffee. These commodity studies analyze current policy regimes in key producing and consuming countries, document the magnitude of these distortions, and estimate the distributional impacts-winners and losers-of trade and domestic policy reforms as well as their impact on trade flows and production location. Global Agricultural Trade and Developing Countries will aid policymakers and researchers in approaching global negotiations and in evaluating domestic policies on agriculture. This book compliments the findings of Agriculture and the WTO: Creating a Trading System for Development.

Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU)

Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) is unique among the sectors considered in this volume, since the mitigation potential is derived from both an enhancement of removals of greenhouse gases (GHG), as well as reduction of emissions through management of land and livestock (robust evidence; high agreement). The land provides food that feeds the Earth’s human population of ca. 7 billion, fibre for a variety of purposes, livelihoods for billions of people worldwide, and is a critical resource for sustainable development in many regions. Agriculture is frequently central to the livelihoods of many social groups, especially in developing countries where it often accounts for a significant share of production. In addition to food and fibre, the land provides a multitude of ecosystem services; climate change mitigation is just one of many that are vital to human well-being (robust evidence; high agreement). Mitigation options in the AFOLU sector, therefore, need to be assessed, as far as possible, for their potential impact on all other services provided by land. [Section 11.1

Chapter 11 - Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU)

Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) plays a central role for food security and sustainable development. Plants take up carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere and nitrogen (N) from the soil when they grow, re-distributing it among different pools, including above and below-ground living biomass, dead residues, and soil organic matter. The CO2 and other non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHG), largely methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), are in turn released to the atmosphere by plant respiration, by decomposition of dead plant biomass and soil organic matter, and by combustion. Anthropogenic land-use activities (e.g., management of croplands, forests, grasslands, wetlands), and changes in land use / cover (e.g., conversion of forest lands and grasslands to cropland and pasture, afforestation) cause changes superimposed on these natural fluxes. AFOLU activities lead to both sources of CO2 (e.g., deforestation, peatland drainage) and sinks of CO2 (e.g., afforestation, management for soil carbon sequestration), and to non-CO2 emissions primarily from agriculture (e.g., CH4 from livestock and rice cultivation, N2O from manure storage and agricultural soils and biomass burning. The main mitigation options within AFOLU involve one or more of three strategies: reduction / prevention of emissions to the atmosphere by conserving existing carbon pools in soils or vegetation that would otherwise be lost or by reducing emissions of CH4 and N2O; sequestration - enhancing the uptake of carbon in terrestrial reservoirs, and thereby removing CO2 from the atmosphere; and reducing CO2 emissions by substitution of biological products for fossil fuels or energy-intensive products. Demand-side options (e.g., by lifestyle changes, reducing losses and wastes of food, changes in human diet, changes in wood consumption), though known to be difficult to implement, may also play a role. Land is the critical resource for the AFOLU sector and it provides food and fodder to feed the Earth's population of ~7 billion, and fibre and fuel for a variety of purposes. It provides livelihoods for billions of people worldwide. It is finite and provides a multitude of goods and ecosystem services that are fundamental to human well-being. Human economies and quality of life are directly dependent on the services and the resources provided by land. Figure 11.1 shows the many provisioning, regulating, cultural and supporting services provided by land, of which climate regulation is just one. Implementing mitigation options in the AFOLU sector may potentially affect other services provided by land in positive or negative ways. In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Second Assessment Report (SAR) and in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), agricultural and forestry mitigation were dealt with in separate chapters. In the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), there were no separate sectoral chapters on either agriculture or forestry. In the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), for the first time, the vast majority of the terrestrial land surface, comprising agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU), is considered together in a single chapter, though settlements (which are important, with urban areas forecasted to triple in size from 2000 global extent by 2030), are dealt with in Chapter 12. This approach ensures that all land-based mitigation options can be considered together; it minimizes the risk of double counting or inconsistent treatment (e.g., different assumptions about available land) between different land categories, and allows the consideration of systemic feedbacks between mitigation options related to the land surface. Considering AFOLU in a single chapter allows phenomena common across land-use types, such as competition for land and water, co-benefits, adverse side-effects and interactions between mitigation and adaptation to be considered consistently. The complex nature of land presents a unique range of barriers and opportunities, and policies to promote mitigation in the AFOLU sector need to take account of this complexity. In this chapter, we consider the competing uses of land for mitigation and for providing other services. Unlike the chapters on agriculture and forestry in AR4, impacts of sourcing bioenergy from the AFOLU sector are considered explicitly in a dedicated appendix. Also new to this assessment is the explicit consideration of food / dietary demand-side options for GHG mitigation in the AFOLU sector, and some consideration of freshwater fisheries and aquaculture, which may compete with the agriculture and forestry sectors, mainly through their requirements for land and / or water, and indirectly, by providing fish and other products to the same markets as animal husbandry. This chapter deals with AFOLU in an integrated way with respect to the underlying scenario projections of population growth, economic growth, dietary change, land-use change (LUC), and cost of mitigation. We draw evidence from both "bottom-up" studies that estimate mitigation potentials at small scales or for individual options or technologies and then scale up, and multi-sectoral "top-down" studies that consider AFOLU as just one component of a total multi-sector system response. In this chapter, we provide updates on emissions trends and changes in drivers and pressures in the AFOLU sector, describe the practices available in the AFOLU sector, and provide refined estimates of mitigation costs and potentials for the AFOLU sector, by synthesising studies that have become available since AR4. We conclude the chapter by identifying gaps in knowledge and data, providing a selection of Frequently Asked Questions, and presenting an Appendix on bioenergy to update the IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN)

Book of abstracts, 4th World Congress on Agroforestry

International audienc

Modeling the contribution of ecological agriculture for climate change mitigation in cote d'Ivoire

The use of crop models is motivated by the prediction of crop production under climate change and for the evaluation of climate risk adaptation strategies. Therefore, in the present study the performance of DSSAT 4.6 was evaluated in a cropping system involving integrated soil fertility management options that are being promoted as ways of adapting agricultural systems to improve both crop yield and carbon sequestration on highly degraded soils encountered throughout middle Côte d’Ivoire. Experimental data encompassed two seasons in the Guinea savanna zone. Residues from the preceding vegetation were left to dry on plots like mulch on an experimental design that comprised the following treatments: (i) herbaceous savanna-maize, (ii)10 year-old of the shrub Chromolaena odorata fallow-maize (iii) 1 or 2 year-old Lalab pupureus stand-rotation, (iv) the legume L. pupureus -maize rotation; (v) continuous maize crop fertilized with urea; (vi) continuous maize crop fertilized with triple superphosphate; (vii) continuous maize crop, fertilized with both urea and triple superphosphate (TSP); (viii) continuous maize cultivation. The model’s sensitivity analysis was run to figure out how uncertainty of stable organic carbon (SOM3) can generate variation in the prediction of soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics during the monitoring period of two years, within the first soil layer and to estimate the most suitable value. The observed variations were of 0.05 % in total SOC within the short-term and acceptable dynamics of changes were obtained for 0.80% of SOM3. The DSSAT model was calibrated using data from the 2007-2008 season and validated against independent data sets of yield of 2008-2009 to 2011-2012 cropping seasons. After the default values for SOM3 used in the model was substituted by the estimated one from sensitivity analysis, the model predicted average maize yields of 1 454 kg ha-1 across the sites versus an observed average value of 1 736 kg ha-1, R2 of 0.72 and RMSE of 597 kg ha-1. The impact of fallow residues and cropping sequence on maize yield was simulated and compared to conventional fertilizer and control data using historical climate scenarios over 12 years. Improving soil fertility through conservation agriculture cannot maintain grain yield in the same way as conventional urea inputs, although there is better yield stability against high climate variability according to our results

Intellectual Property Management in Health and Agricultural Innovation: A Handbook of Best Practices, Vol. 1

Prepared by and for policy-makers, leaders of public sector research establishments, technology transfer professionals, licensing executives, and scientists, this online resource offers up-to-date information and strategies for utilizing the power of both intellectual property and the public domain. Emphasis is placed on advancing innovation in health and agriculture, though many of the principles outlined here are broadly applicable across technology fields. Eschewing ideological debates and general proclamations, the authors always keep their eye on the practical side of IP management. The site is based on a comprehensive Handbook and Executive Guide that provide substantive discussions and analysis of the opportunities awaiting anyone in the field who wants to put intellectual property to work. This multi-volume work contains 153 chapters on a full range of IP topics and over 50 case studies, composed by over 200 authors from North, South, East, and West. If you are a policymaker, a senior administrator, a technology transfer manager, or a scientist, we invite you to use the companion site guide available at http://www.iphandbook.org/index.html The site guide distills the key points of each IP topic covered by the Handbook into simple language and places it in the context of evolving best practices specific to your professional role within the overall picture of IP management