Transparent Forecasting Strategies in Database Management Systems

Whereas traditional data warehouse systems assume that data is complete or has been carefully preprocessed, increasingly more data is imprecise, incomplete, and inconsistent. This is especially true in the context of big data, where massive amount of data arrives continuously in real-time from vast data sources. Nevertheless, modern data analysis involves sophisticated statistical algorithm that go well beyond traditional BI and, additionally, is increasingly performed by non-expert users. Both trends require transparent data mining techniques that efficiently handle missing data and present a complete view of the database to the user. Time series forecasting estimates future, not yet available, data of a time series and represents one way of dealing with missing data. Moreover, it enables queries that retrieve a view of the database at any point in time - past, present, and future. This article presents an overview of forecasting techniques in database management systems. After discussing possible application areas for time series forecasting, we give a short mathematical background of the main forecasting concepts. We then outline various general strategies of integrating time series forecasting inside a database and discuss some individual techniques from the database community. We conclude this article by introducing a novel forecasting-enabled database management architecture that natively and transparently integrates forecast models

Current barriers and possible solutions to effective project team formation and deployment within a large construction organisation

The characteristics of the construction industry present an extremely challenging context for effective human resource management (HRM). The dynamic project-based nature of the industry results in extreme fluctuations in organisations’ workloads and requires teams to form, develop and disband relatively quickly. Thus, the importance of efficient management of employee resourcing activities cannot be understated. This paper reports on the findings of research which explored employee resourcing practices within large UK construction firms. The results suggest that managers currently attempt to carry out some strategic planning with regards to employee resourcing, but that this does not necessarily translate into effective operational practice which simultaneously takes account of organisational, project and individual employee needs. A new approach for more effective employee resourcing decision-making, based on encouraging the involvement of the employees in the deployment process, is put forward as a management tool which informs effective team formation and deployment. However, this will require the acceptance of both decision-support technology and of employee input into what is currently a tacit, management-oriented decision process

Urban management revolution: intelligent management systems for ubiquitous cities

A successful urban management support system requires an integrated approach. This integration includes bringing together economic, socio-cultural and urban development with a well orchestrated transparent and open decision making mechanism. The paper emphasises the importance of integrated urban management to better tackle the climate change, and to achieve sustainable urban development and sound urban growth management. This paper introduces recent approaches on urban management systems, such as intelligent urban management systems, that are suitable for ubiquitous cities. The paper discusses the essential role of online collaborative decision making in urban and infrastructure planning, development and management, and advocates transparent, fully democratic and participatory mechanisms for an effective urban management system that is particularly suitable for ubiquitous cities. This paper also sheds light on some of the unclear processes of urban management of ubiquitous cities and online collaborative decision making, and reveals the key benefits of integrated and participatory mechanisms in successfully constructing sustainable ubiquitous cities

Simulation support for internet-based energy services

The rapidly developing Internet broadband network offers new opportunities for deploying a range of energy, environment and health-related services for people in their homes and workplaces. Several of these services can be enabled or enhanced through the application of building simulation. This paper describes the infrastructure for e-services under test within a European research project and shows the potential for simulation support for these services

Applied Research Through Partnership: the Experience of the Yorkshire and Humberside Regional Research Observatory

Paper presented at a seminar on ‘Los Observatorios Regionales de Políticas Públicas como Herramientas de Gestión de Información: Una Aproximación al Estudio del Rendimiento Autonómico, at the Centro de Estudios de Gestión, Análisis y Información, Campus de Somosaguas, La Universidad Complutense, Madrid, 23-24 November, 2000 Ten years ago, a Regional Research Observatory (ReRO) was established to provide ‘clients’ in Yorkshire and Humberside with a single point access to a region-wide data and analysis service. The Observatory’s portfolio covered activities relating to applied research and consultancy, intelligence, education and training, publications and networking. The first part of the paper explains the concept of the Observatory as it was initially conceived as a form of partnership across all the universities in the region, outlines the structure of the organization that was created, explains the arrangements for operating the Observatory as a partnership initiative, and exemplifies the outputs and achievements during the first half of the decade. In order to facilitate its regional monitoring activities, ReRO constructed a Regional Intelligence Centre (RIC), a customised geographical information system in which to store key data sets and generate a range of statistical indicators for the region as a whole or its constituent parts. The second part of the paper explains the structure of the RIC and its contents. It argues that the main advantage that derives from the construction of such a centre is the value that is added to raw information through data handling and integration, through skilled interpretation and through the provision of new information, maybe in the form of forecasts of what is likely to happen in the future, as well as analyses of what has happened in the past. The third and final part of the paper explores some of the key issues and difficulties relating to the operation of the Observatory and considers some of the reasons that have accounted for its loss of momentum in the last few years. This has occurred over a period of increased political attention to regional administration and planning in the UK, exemplified by the creation of Scottish and Welsh Assemblies and the emergence of Regional Development Agencies and Regional Assemblies across England. A retrospective evaluation demonstrates a number of lessons that have been learnt and provides a number of useful guidelines to those attempting to establish similar structures elsewhere in the developed world

Energy Access Scenarios to 2030 for the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa

In order to reach a goal of universal access to modern energy services in Africa by 2030, consideration of various electricity sector pathways is required to help inform policy-makers and investors, and help guide power system design. To that end, and building on existing tools and analysis, we present several ‘high-level’, transparent, and economy-wide scenarios for the sub-Saharan African power sector to 2030. We construct these simple scenarios against the backdrop of historical trends and various interpretations of universal access. They are designed to provide the international community with an indication of the overall scale of the effort required. We find that most existing projections, using typical long-term forecasting methods for power planning, show roughly a threefold increase in installed generation capacity occurring by 2030, but more than a tenfold increase would likely be required to provide for full access – even at relatively modest levels of electricity consumption. This equates to approximately a 13% average annual growth rate, compared to a historical one (in the last two decades) of 1.7%.Energy Access, Power System Planning, Sub-Saharan Africa